The announcement by China in March 2023 of its mediation for the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran sparked discussions about the rapidly diminishing role of the United States in the Middle East. Shortly after President Joe Biden took office, the U.S. completed its unsuccessful withdrawal from Afghanistan, and American diplomatic efforts to revive the Iranian nuclear deal faltered amidst a violent wave of protests against the Iranian regime. Meanwhile, the most right-wing government in Israeli history came to power, threatening the state’s democratic claims, fueling a new wave of violence, and jeopardizing U.S.-backed peace agreements. This has led observers to question whether U.S. influence in the region has permanently declined.
In this context, Stephen Simon, a former National Security Council member and veteran Middle East expert, attempts to track U.S. efforts to shape the region in his book “The Great Illusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East,” published in April 2023 by Penguin Publishing. The book offers a new perspective on the complexities of American involvement in the Middle East and provides a critical analysis of U.S. policies, as well as the successes, failures, and nuances of U.S. foreign policy from the Jimmy Carter era to the Biden administration.
Washington’s Failures
The author evaluates U.S. policies in the Middle East over the past four and a half decades, highlighting their flaws and failures. The book identifies several factors contributing to these shortcomings:
Employing Incompetent Policymakers: The book argues that one of the main reasons for American failures in the Middle East is the employment of incompetent policymakers across various administrations. For instance, Simon notes that the Reagan administration was filled with duplicitous and rebellious figures, and their vision for the Arab-Israeli peace process was utterly absurd. He also observes that Clinton’s advisors were drawn to false doctrines in the Middle East. George W. Bush, according to the author, was “narrow-minded, indifferent, and impulsive,” adopting a “blunt approach to foreign policy dilemmas.” The problems faced by Obama in Libya reflected his “ineptitude,” while Trump handed the Middle East portfolio to his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Consequently, Simon believes that U.S. tax dollars funded a large number of “incompetents” responsible for policy-making.
Conflicting Decision-Making Processes: The book points to another issue behind the American failure: the flawed political process driven by political and ideological necessities, emotional impulses, and a coordination process that often requires consensus among agencies with conflicting priorities. The author argues that policymakers frequently ignored intelligence analysts and early warnings, such as those predicting the September 11, 2001, attacks. Simon mentions that more than 18 months before those attacks, he and counterterrorism expert Daniel Benjamin published a warning in The New York Times about an imminent “mass attack” against the U.S. by extremists.
Washington’s Preference for Non-Engagement: The book asserts that Washington has historically defined the Middle East in negative terms, focusing on deterrence and containment policies rather than genuine engagement and promoting positive change. In this context, Simon condemns the dual containment policy during the Clinton administration, which sought to restrict both Iraq and Iran independently, paving the way for the Iraq War and the continuation of U.S. military presence in the region. He notes that with the end of the Cold War, the American triumphalism hindered any introspection in Washington that might lead to more serious deliberations about the consequences of U.S. policies and what American interests in the Middle East should clearly be.
Neglecting the Reshaping of Regional Powers: According to Simon, in an era transformed by digital innovation in media, expanded supply chains, enriched financial industries, restructured military technologies, and increased inequality, the role and interests of the United States necessarily changed as well. However, the U.S. has overlooked the types of social, economic, and technological forces that have shaped daily life in the Middle East for a long time.
Reliance on Military Intervention: The book suggests that the reliance on military strikes to address issues in the Middle East is counterproductive, as it only creates more disgruntled individuals who turn to violence. In this context, Simon criticizes the 2003 invasion of Iraq and argues that the U.S. should not have rushed to oust Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, as he was considered a useful ally in the fight against terrorism.
Overestimating American Power in the Region: The author contends that U.S. policy in the Middle East has often been driven by an overestimation of Washington’s ability to shape events in the region while underestimating local populations. He points out that, based on the belief that the U.S. was the “greatest power on earth,” the Bush administration “lost its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, killing or causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.”
A New Strategy
In light of the above, Simon indicates that there is a need for a more effective American strategy toward the Middle East that considers the following:
Redefining American Interests: The book argues that Washington needs to redefine its interests in the Middle East, moving beyond the empty rhetoric and failed policies of previous administrations while reviewing the numerous models of American failure in the region over the past decades under different administrations in the White House.
Adopting an Adaptive Approach: Simon emphasizes the necessity for the United States to adapt its approach to the Middle East to remain relevant and avoid getting caught in a cycle of frustrating engagement, especially in the face of China’s growing influence in the region. This requires rethinking the American strategy related to the Middle East and strengthening ties with allies amid Beijing’s efforts to enhance its economic, political, and security influence in the area.
Engaging with Local Communities: The author stresses that American diplomats must engage with local communities, address urgent issues, and focus on matters such as assisting in rebuilding infrastructure in Lebanon. This could enhance American influence and correct Washington’s image favorably in Middle Eastern countries.
Critical Perspective
Despite the book’s significance in understanding various aspects of American politics in the region, it suffers from numerous weaknesses, the most important of which are as follows:
Firstly, the book fails to present short-term policy proposals. By focusing on successive American administrations, it emphasizes short-term policy options rather than broader national trends while considering relevant global developments. In this context, intelligence analysts often highlight weaknesses in policy proposals without offering ideas for improvement. This is also true for the book, which does not provide a clear vision for a more effective American strategy toward the region, concentrating instead on exposing the weaknesses of current policies.
Secondly, the analysis overlooks important areas in examining Washington’s policies. Simon’s analysis tends to center on his personal experiences and the domains in which he served, potentially creating a limited perspective. Furthermore, the book’s focus on the executive branch, while neglecting Congress, other agencies, and local populations, may offer an incomplete view of U.S. policy toward the Middle East.
Thirdly, the author makes a misleading claim about the continuity of American policies. He highlights the consistency in Middle Eastern policies across various U.S. administrations, despite the general disagreements among these administrations regarding different Middle Eastern issues. For instance, he argues that Trump largely continued Obama’s second-term policy in the region, even though public discourse suggests otherwise.
Lastly, the writer’s personal ideological biases have influenced his analysis. These biases led him to downplay certain American successes, such as the U.S.-led campaign to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS). Additionally, the book contains criticisms of individuals with whom Simon disagreed during his previous governmental roles.
In conclusion, the book emphasizes the importance of humility and recognizing the limitations of American power in shaping events in the region. It argues that the future of the United States in the Middle East is unlikely to resemble its past or present, offering a glimmer of hope for change and progress in the medium and long term.
Source:
Steven Simon, Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East (USA: Penguin Press, 2023).
