Several terrorist organizations, with ISIS at the forefront, have successfully attracted a broad base of supporters to their ideologies through aggressive propaganda campaigns. This has been reflected in the increase in terrorist attacks witnessed in various European countries, executed by individuals rather than organized groups. The concept of “lone wolves” pertains to those who do not belong to terrorist groups, yet are connected to them through indirect communication and share ideological and radical tendencies. These individuals become radicalized on their own, influenced by extremist narratives that guide them toward committing violent acts.
In light of this, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs/Scientific and Political Foundation released a report titled “The Individualization of Islamist Terrorism,” aiming to shed light on the nature of attacks carried out by lone terrorists in Europe and how these have evolved with the rise of transnational terrorist organizations, not to mention the reasons contributing to the reliance on the lone wolf model, which, despite not leading to large-scale damage, has a significant impact and causes security disturbances. The report outlines several key ideas that will be presented and analyzed further:
- Stages of Development of the Lone Wolf Phenomenon
- Characteristics of Lone Wolf Attacks
- Motivations Behind the Spread of Individual Terrorism
- The Dilemma of Combating Individual Terrorism
Stages of Development of the Lone Wolf Phenomenon
The researcher began the report by reviewing the evolution of lone wolf terrorism in Europe, categorizing it into three main phases. The first phase took place during the dominance of al-Qaeda, specifically from its resurgence after the September 11 attacks until 2012. During this period, it attempted to execute some attacks via individuals sent from Pakistan and Afghanistan to various European countries. The second phase spanned the peak of ISIS from 2014 until its military confrontations in Iraq and Syria in 2017 and 2019. The organization sent operatives to Europe to carry out attacks, calling on followers abroad to execute numerous attacks using simple means, particularly during its military defeat in the Middle East. The third phase became evident in the last quarter of 2020, marked by a significant rise in individual terrorist actors, referred to by the researcher as “individual offenders,” who relied on weapons such as knives and firearms. Many attacks occurred successively in Germany, France, and Austria. Among the examples mentioned in the report was the attack that took place in the German city of Dresden on October 4, 2020, where a Syrian national attacked two gay men with a knife, leading to one fatality and one injury. Another incident occurred in Vienna, Austria, where a dual national of Austrian-Macedonian descent opened fire on four individuals entering a concert at a church in the city center.
In recent years, similar terrorist attacks continued, affecting other countries such as Belgium, Austria, and some Scandinavian nations. France and Germany remained at the forefront of European nations particularly impacted by jihadist activities that used religion as a facade. The report drew attention to terrorist incidents in Germany in August, highlighting an attack in Solingen where three individuals used knives at a music festival, injuring eight others. Following this, Munich witnessed another attack. Although ISIS claimed responsibility for these incidents, there was little evidence of direct contact with the organization.
Characteristics of Lone Wolf Attacks
The developmental stages of the lone wolf phenomenon in Europe exhibited several common characteristics found in most terrorist attacks. The researcher highlighted several of these, such as:
Nature of Targets: The planning for violence by a group of ideologically radical individuals was often aimed at civilians with differing beliefs, such as threats against LGBTQ+ individuals or abuse of caricature artists targeting prophets and religions, especially Islam. Attacks on civilian sites like places of worship and concerts aimed to maximize casualties, alongside operations directed against government facilities to push for certain policy adoptions or rejections.
Characteristics of Perpetrators: The report noted a transformation in the profile of individual offenders, particularly in the third phase of this phenomenon regarding the sources of these terrorists. Previously, they were dispatched from jihad war zones like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. However, with technological advancements and significant migrations to Europe from turmoil in some Middle Eastern and African countries, those with jihadist beliefs, referred to by the researcher as the “first generation” of Islamist terrorists, were able to adhere to the calls from terrorist organizations like ISIS and al-Qaeda without directly joining their ranks. Germany emerged as one of the European nations that received a significant number of refugees with such ideological tendencies, consequently becoming heavily influenced by the planning and execution of violent attacks.
Motivations Behind the Spread of Individual Terrorism
The global jihadist landscape has undergone transformations that have led to considerable fragmentation and periods of dormancy, during which large-scale attacks in the West have proven unsuccessful. Evidence of this can be seen in the weakening of al-Qaeda since late 2010 and the rise of ISIS, which shifted its strategy to targeting the “near enemy” instead of the “far enemy.” Despite this shift, ISIS was eventually defeated militarily in Iraq (2017) and Syria (2019), impacting the structure of international terrorism and causing the substantial divide between these two groups, leading to the rise of individual terrorists as substitutes for organized group attacks. The report summarizes this situation as follows:
The Decline of al-Qaeda: Al-Qaeda gained widespread notoriety as the dominant jihadist entity in international affairs, especially after the September 11 attacks, forming a network of regional affiliates alongside its headquarters in Pakistan and Afghanistan. By 2011, the United States managed to kill key al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan, including Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, through drone strikes and special forces operations. This caused the jihadist milieu to fragment, hindering al-Qaeda’s capacity to orchestrate significant attacks on distant targets. In June 2011, al-Qaeda issued a video urging its supporters globally to carry out lone attacks.
The Military Defeat of ISIS: After declaring its caliphate in Syria and Iraq, ISIS faced numerous defeats, losing territory claimed in 2014 and thousands of fighters. This affected the organization’s leadership, including the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, following a series of U.S. operations against its leaders. While attempting to decentralize and enhance its presence through branching out into various countries post its defeats, the organization established a “General Administration for Provinces” to maintain financial and logistical control over its affiliates.
The Rise of ISIS Khorasan in Europe and “Directed Attacks”: After the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021, ISIS’s Khorasan Province attempted to establish itself as a significant jihadist group. The organization sought to enlarge its operational reach into neighboring countries and Europe by directing individuals and small groups within Europe to execute attacks, particularly after the Taliban’s successes against Khorasan.
The Dilemma of Combating Individual Terrorism
The attacks of lone wolves have created a significant dilemma and ongoing security concern for authorities, particularly in Germany and across Europe, due to the challenges in tracing the origins of such individual assaults, especially as many perpetrators are refugees with extremist leanings. Despite the efforts of security agencies to develop stringent security policies to prevent and repeat such incidents, they struggle to implement policies that accurately identify terrorist elements within populations to enable early detection of individual terrorists. Additionally, the report emphasized the necessity for European security authorities to combat jihadist organizations militarily in the Middle East and South and Central Asia and Africa to prevent their reinforcement and further attacks on Europe. This has become increasingly challenging due to recent military withdrawals from Afghanistan, Mali, and Niger. The researcher suggested that European nations undertake military actions and covert operations against terrorists outside the continent, while also maintaining and expanding their military capabilities, especially in air transport and the deployment of special forces. Moreover, it is vital to engage in ideological countermeasures against terrorist organizations and protect youth from being swayed by the appeals of such groups, particularly those suffering from ideological distortions, as well as monitoring communication channels between these organizations and their followers in Europe.
In summary, the study presented by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs contributes substantially to understanding the lone wolf terrorism pattern that has seen a significant uptick in Europe, characterized by knife attacks and shootings that lack an organized structural following. This rise, particularly since late 2020, poses one of the foremost challenges to European countries amidst the decline of transnational organizations. Several notable observations emerged from this overview:
- Observation One: The characteristics of perpetrators involved in this type of terrorism show significant diversity, often being young individuals ideologically influenced by jihadist organizations and driven by political, psychological, or social motives, as well as the desire to achieve an ideological goal. Others, known as returnees from combat, were previously part of organizations like ISIS and, following military defeats, conducted individual attacks in their home countries.
- Observation Two: The persistence of terrorism despite crises affecting the jihadist landscape. Some organizations have adopted compensatory strategies to counteract challenges affecting the structure of international terrorism, managing to indirectly guide and attract groups and individuals towards adopting their ideologies and planning attacks through electronic propaganda and media campaigns, contributing to a steady rise in lone wolves in Europe.
- Observation Three: Tracking individual movements without any organizational cover poses a significant challenge and necessitates comprehensive measures to confront the spread of individual terrorism. This requires not only limiting migration but also enhancing intelligence capabilities, particularly in communication monitoring and technological sectors, alongside continuous security measures during high-alert situations to prevent such operations.
Source: [1] Guido Steinberg, “Die Individualisierung des islamistischen Terrorismus”, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin, 6 November 2024. Available at: https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/die-individualisierung-des-islamistischen-terrorismus
