The Gulf region represents one of the most strategically important areas for the vital interests of the United States, primarily because around 30% of global energy production originates from this region. In light of the repercussions of the U.S. war on Iran—which prompted Iran to announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—global energy markets have experienced severe disruption. This has created major challenges for securing energy supplies for both producing and exporting countries, especially as the world continues to grapple with the consequences of the Russia–Ukraine war on energy supply chains. This paper seeks to analyze the current situation and assess its implications for global energy security.
First: The Impact of War on Energy Production
The ongoing confrontation between the Islamic Republic of Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other is among the most serious threats to energy sources in the Gulf region. Israel has targeted Iranian oil storage facilities and the South Pars gas field, prompting Iran to retaliate by targeting energy stations and oil and gas storage facilities in Gulf countries. This has significantly affected oil production.
Moreover, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its prevention of maritime transit forced oil and gas fields in Gulf countries and Iraq to declare force majeure, leading to a halt in production. This has disrupted energy output in one of the world’s richest energy markets.
The war has imposed major challenges on energy production across the region. Iraq and Kuwait were forced to reduce production due to full storage capacity since early March 2026, while Qatar halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed following drone attacks. This led to a 20% decline in global gas exports, as well as a similar drop in oil and gas supplies to global markets. As a result, supply shortages drove prices upward, with oil surpassing $100 per barrel for the first time since the Russia–Ukraine war.
The conflict has involved mutual strikes between Iran and the United States and Israel, further impacting energy production and exports. Saudi Arabia attempted to compensate by exporting via the East–West pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, but its capacity is limited to 5 million barrels per day, effectively reducing Saudi oil output by nearly half.
Iraq, meanwhile, has sought alternative export routes, reactivating the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to export through the Mediterranean. Initial exports are estimated at 170,000 barrels per day, with plans to reach 600,000 barrels. Efforts are also underway to repair the older pipeline, potentially increasing total export capacity to 1.6 million barrels per day. Additionally, Iraq has increased overland exports to Jordan via tanker trucks. Nonetheless, Iraq’s oil production has dropped to roughly one-third of its normal level (around 3 million barrels per day), resulting in significant financial losses given its heavy reliance on oil revenues.
Second: Challenges for Energy-Importing Countries
The war has created even greater challenges for energy-importing countries, particularly in Europe, which depends heavily on external energy supplies. Following sanctions on Russian energy due to the Ukraine war, European countries turned to Gulf states as an alternative. However, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off this supply route, leaving Europe facing severe shortages and declining strategic reserves.
This situation presents difficult choices: industrial decline due to rising costs, restoring relations with Russia to resume imports, or direct involvement in securing maritime routes—potentially escalating the conflict into a broader global confrontation.
China, the largest importer of Iranian oil (accounting for around 91% of Iran’s exports), has so far remained relatively unaffected, as Iran continues exporting via Kharg Island. However, China’s energy security could be threatened if the United States targets this infrastructure.
India has been significantly impacted, with oil imports dropping by 23% since early March compared to February. Gas supply challenges have also intensified following force majeure declarations by major suppliers like QatarEnergy. Rising oil prices above $100 per barrel have increased inflationary pressures on the Indian economy.
In response, India has increased imports of Russian oil, utilized strategic reserves, and engaged in diplomatic efforts with Iran to secure shipping routes. Given that approximately 2 million barrels of India’s daily consumption pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the country is actively seeking alternative sources.
Third: Reshaping the Global Energy Structure
The war has triggered a major تحول (shift) in the global energy system, extending beyond price fluctuations to fundamentally reshape supply chains:
- End of “cheap and stable energy”: A permanent geopolitical risk premium has been added to oil prices.
- Acceleration toward alternative and nuclear energy: Countries are investing heavily in green hydrogen and small modular reactors.
- Redrawing trade routes: Russia, Africa, and Brazil have become alternative suppliers, especially for Asia and Europe.
- Militarization of energy routes: Energy security is increasingly treated as a military priority.
- LNG crisis and energy sovereignty: Supply disruptions have forced some countries to temporarily revert to coal or extend nuclear plant operations.
- Rise of floating LNG technology (FSRU): Countries are investing in flexible import infrastructure to reduce reliance on pipelines.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the world is moving toward a decentralized energy system, where regions aim to secure supplies locally or through diversified routes, reducing dependence on critical maritime chokepoints. The crisis is also accelerating investment in renewable energy, which may have long-term positive effects on reducing pollution and climate change.
At the same time, energy-exporting countries in the Gulf are seeking alternative export routes, albeit at reduced capacity. This has exposed a critical strategic vulnerability—particularly for countries like Iraq—which relied heavily on a single export route through the Strait of Hormuz instead of diversifying their energy infrastructure.
