The upcoming American presidential elections scheduled for November 5, 2024, are among the most significant elections in the world, if not the most critical; their outcome will determine the leader of the most powerful nation in the current international system. This relevance garners considerable attention from the international community, including various countries and organizations.
China is at the forefront of nations closely monitoring these elections, given the potential for a new administration in the White House that may have a specific vision for managing relations with Beijing—one of the most important bilateral relationships globally amid the fierce competition for influence and dominance between the two superpowers. How does China view the U.S. presidential elections, and is there a particular candidate that Beijing prefers, or do both candidates appear equally acceptable to it? Particularly since the results of these elections will outline the future trajectory of U.S.-China relations over the next four years.
China in the Election Campaign:
Typically, foreign policy issues, especially relations with China, receive significant attention from U.S. presidential candidates. Both former President Donald Trump, a Republican candidate, and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who is currently the Vice President under Joe Biden, have shown great interest in presenting their visions for future foreign policy towards Beijing, should they win the presidency. This can be summarized as follows:
Consensus on the Chinese Challenge: The U.S. election campaigns have featured intense competition between the Republican and Democratic parties, with both striving to present strong political rhetoric regarding a tough approach towards China and limiting its global role. There is broad consensus within both parties that China poses a significant challenge to the United States and is also the top priority in Washington’s declared global strategy.
In this context, Morgan Finkelstein, a spokesperson for Harris’s national security campaign, stated that the Vice President “has a clear perspective on the threats posed by China, and if she reaches the White House, she will ensure that the U.S. prevails in the competition of the 21st century,” adding that Harris “will stand against China’s efforts to undermine global stability and prosperity and will work closely with Washington’s allies and partners to confront these challenges while investing in its strengths.”
Meanwhile, Trump declared that he might impose tariffs over 60% on all Chinese imports to the U.S. if elected, which would effectively end a trade relationship valued at $575 billion. He also hinted at imposing a new ban on American-Chinese investments in both directions, promising to keep China out of core American industries and ensuring that American funds do not support China’s rise.
The presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump featured a heated exchange regarding American economic competition with Beijing. Harris criticized Trump’s proposals on tariffs, warning that they would lead to inflation and recession, while also reproaching him for allowing advanced technology sales to Chinese companies. The statements and positions of both Harris and Trump regarding Beijing illustrate the significant importance of China as a central issue in the U.S. presidential campaigns.
Accusations Against China of Election Interference: U.S. officials and media have made numerous allegations against China regarding election interference. These accusations have been denied by Chinese Ambassador to Washington, Xie Feng, who called for the U.S. to avoid what he described as a “strategic mistake” in its dealings with Beijing.
U.S. government officials have accused China of attempting to interfere in the presidential elections, stating that Beijing engages in behavior similar to what Moscow did during the 2016 elections, utilizing disinformation tactics and spreading false information to influence American public opinion.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the United States has observed evidence of Chinese attempts to influence and intervene in the elections, despite repeated denials from China. The Department of Homeland Security accused China, along with Russia and Iran, of seeking to exploit artificial intelligence technologies to interfere in the elections, employing what it termed “a range of disruptive, covert, criminal, and coercive tactics to seek new opportunities to undermine trust in American democratic institutions and internal social cohesion.”
Despite U.S. intelligence confirming that no attempts by China to interfere in the presidential elections have been observed, they pointed to Chinese attempts to influence the outcomes of the congressional elections occurring simultaneously with the presidential elections.
China’s Perspective:
China is closely and significantly following the developments of the U.S. presidential elections—not only because it is one of the central issues of this election but also due to the potential implications of the results for China and its ambitions, particularly in the political and economic spheres. This can be clarified as follows:
Elections as an Internal American Matter: One of the key principles of Chinese foreign policy is non-interference in the internal affairs of other states and respect for their sovereignty. Thus, China considers the U.S. presidential elections an internal American affair, refusing to comment on them. This position came in response to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate.
In line with its opposition to any foreign intervention in its internal affairs, China has refrained from pointing to any issues related to itself during the American election campaigns, particularly in response to Republican candidate Donald Trump’s statement in an interview with Bloomberg, where he asked Taiwan to bear the costs of Washington’s defense and protection efforts. Although representatives of the Chinese Foreign Ministry avoided commenting on Harris’s or Trump’s remarks about China, Beijing opposed efforts to make China a focal issue in the presidential election campaigns.
Political Concerns: The relationship between China and the United States is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world and is influenced by the political transitions both nations undergo at the top of their political power structures. With regard to the American presidential elections, China views the choice as one between two candidates who may both adversely impact its interests. The matter of who will lead the White House could have negative implications not only for U.S.-China relations but also for stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
China is concerned that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will continue the offensive diplomacy of the Biden administration towards Taiwan, which has urged U.S. allies to ally against China, seeking to push NATO to include the Chinese threat on its agenda, as well as a consistent pledge to intervene in defense of Taipei in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Economic Concerns: China is deeply economically and commercially tied to the United States, and the outcome of the American presidential elections could heavily influence these relations. China fears that the return of former President Donald Trump to power could escalate the trade war with the U.S. Some believe that Trump would pose the biggest challenge to China, especially since the Chinese economy is already under strain, while the former president threatens to impose tariffs and escalate the trade war between the two countries.
On the other hand, despite the Biden administration imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and trying to hinder Chinese technological advancement, particularly in the semiconductor industry, it has sought to re-establish communication with Beijing and mitigate the risks of a downturn in relations. China’s primary goal is to ensure that any further deterioration in U.S.-China relations does not hinder economic growth, which forms the basis of the legitimacy of its governing system, especially given the current contraction faced by the Chinese economy, exacerbated by the downturn in the real estate sector, which has transformed the biggest growth driver in the country into a significant obstacle, leading to a loss of $7 trillion in the stock market and the fastest drop in consumer prices in China in 15 years recorded last January.
Preference for Harris over Trump: China has not disclosed a specific stance regarding a preference for either candidate in the U.S. presidential elections; both regard China as a competitor or adversary, and Beijing is likely to face an American president whose overarching strategy appears to involve constraining and limiting China’s development in both scenarios.
However, American estimates indicate that despite Beijing’s neutrality towards either U.S. presidential candidate, it has shown a preference for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris over her Republican competitor Donald Trump, viewing her as less unpredictable in her actions compared to Harris. According to these estimates, China believes that a Harris administration would allow its government to build on this foundation and provide a somewhat stable external environment, while officials focus on stimulating an economy currently under deflationary pressures. In contrast, Trump represents a significant risk to this strategy, threatening to impose tariffs on China that could reach 60%, a level that could devastate trade between the world’s two largest economies.
There is a consensus in China that a second Trump administration is likely to bring more uncertainty, instability, and unpredictability compared to Harris, who shares President Biden’s view that responsibly managing competition with China is crucial to avoid it escalating into conflict or confrontation.
Potential Consequences:
Numerous potential consequences may arise from the results of the U.S. presidential elections regarding the expected course of the new administration’s foreign policy toward China, whether under Harris or Trump. This can be demonstrated as follows:
Scenario of Kamala Harris’s Victory: It is expected that Harris’s administration’s approach toward China will largely mirror Biden’s administration’s policy, which has focused on a tough stance toward Beijing concerning trade, technology, and national security issues. Economic estimates suggest that maintaining the tariff policies imposed by the Biden administration could lead to a decrease in China’s economic growth by around 0.03% in 2025.
In political and strategic terms, a Harris administration is expected to intensify strategic competition with Beijing, bolstering efforts to forge alliances and partnerships with Western and Asian countries in countering China.
Scenario of Donald Trump’s Victory: A Trump administration is expected to adopt a more aggressive economic and trade policy toward China, continuing his previous protectionist policies primarily focused on imposing tariffs on Chinese imports and reducing economic cooperation.
Trump’s escalation of the trade war against China is likely to strain economic relations between the world’s two largest economies by reigniting trade and technology tension, with a conceivable rise in disputes over trade and technology, intellectual property rights, and restrictions on Chinese companies operating in the U.S. Investors anticipate more protectionist policies aimed at undermining Chinese competition in U.S. and global markets, negatively affecting not only the Chinese economy but also the U.S. economy, as the United States is China’s largest trading partner and heavily relies on imports from China. Consequently, raising tariffs on Chinese goods would lead to rising prices and inflation in the United States.
Goldman Sachs expects China’s GDP to be adversely affected by around 2% from Trump’s proposed tariffs. In contrast, Swiss bank UBS predicts that the tariffs proposed by Trump may hinder China’s GDP growth by approximately 2.5% in the subsequent twelve months after their imposition, although the impact may not exceed 1.5% if China takes compensatory measures. Nonetheless, Trump’s interest in trade deals might drive him to enter bilateral agreements with Beijing over consumer goods, energy, and technology.
Strategic Competition Priority: Public opinion polls in the United States, along with general consensus between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding China, indicate that Washington will continue to prioritize strategic competition in its relationships with China, regardless of the winner of the presidential elections. Additionally, the policy of containment is expected to remain one of Washington’s options in dealing with Beijing, while finding a place for cooperative relations and exchanges with Beijing.
On the flip side, China expresses its readiness to be a partner and friend to the United States, viewing a successful partnership between the two nations as an opportunity for both to enable the other’s development rather than becoming obstacles.
In conclusion, while China attempts to project indifference towards the American elections and regard them as an internal American matter, these elections are of utmost importance and closely monitored by Chinese decision-makers amidst the fierce competition between Beijing and Washington for dominance and influence within the current international system. The results are expected to determine the future direction of relations between the two superpowers, particularly given the political and economic concerns raised by China regarding potential policies of the election’s winner, which could significantly impact its political and economic aspirations and status in the current evolution of the international system. Thus, maintaining strategic competition is likely to remain the top priority for the new American administration in managing its relations with Beijing while striving to avoid a direct conflict or confrontation.
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