While much of the world’s attention is fixed on the new occupant of the White House and the implications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, there is another battle of equal importance: the 119th Congressional elections, which will be held concurrently with the presidential election. On this day, millions of Americans will flock to polling places to cast their votes in a fierce competition between the Democratic and Republican parties for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as for one-third of the Senate seats, specifically 34 out of 100.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the elections on “Capitol Hill” will significantly impact the domestic and foreign policy of the United States for the next two years, until the midterm elections in November 2026. This relates to the balance of power between Congress and the presidency, the extent of the functions and roles assigned to the legislature in both chambers, which has the power to obstruct any incoming president’s agenda, and the unique current electoral landscape given the high political polarization between the two major parties, as well as the multitude of pressing internal and external issues that will be on the upcoming Congress’s agenda, such as taxes, immigration, environment, abortion, and foreign aid, among others.
In light of the above, this analysis discusses the importance of the Congressional elections and the main expected scenarios regarding the opportunities for both the Democratic and Republican parties, considering the factors influencing the American political scene and polling results.
Importance of Congress:
The indicators highlighting the significance of the current Congressional elections are numerous, occurring at a pivotal moment both domestically and internationally from the perspective of various stakeholders in American politics. The importance of these elections can be summarized as follows:
Centrality of the Congressional Majority: The majority party in the U.S. political system, which operates on the principle of “winner-takes-all,” has the power to change the face of American politics both domestically and internationally, regardless of how minuscule their majority might be. The party controlling the majority can significantly influence the functioning of any sitting president. Besides enacting and issuing legislation, Congress possesses the authority to approve presidential appointments, whether for cabinet positions, federal judges, or Supreme Court nominees, ratify treaties with foreign countries with a two-thirds majority, and conduct impeachment trials against federal officials. Furthermore, Congress is the sole authority responsible for providing the mechanisms to fund the federal government and passing legislation concerning citizens’ daily lives. It dictates the defense budget, regulates trade and tariffs, and allocates military and financial aid abroad. All of this implies that the agenda of the incoming president, along with their domestic and foreign policies and all promises made during the campaign, may face significant delays if their administration lacks a majority in Congress. Control of just one chamber can allow for the obstruction of presidential appointments and legislative proposals, thus encapsulating the American adage that “a divided Congress creates a weak president.”
Multiplicity of Urgent Issues: The upcoming Congress will grapple with a plethora of urgent issues likely to reshape Washington’s policies for years to come. For instance, members of Congress will discuss a set of tax laws set to expire by the end of next year, relating to individual and business income tax rates and the extent of tax exemptions on gifts and inheritances. In this context, while Republicans hope to extend the tax cuts enacted in their 2017 tax law, Democrats are looking to seize the opportunity to change it by raising tax rates on the wealthy and corporations and reducing tax exemptions on gifts and inheritances to fund health care and educational projects, part of Kamala Harris’s electoral platform.
Additionally, Congress will tackle the challenge of raising the federal debt ceiling, which reached unprecedented levels exceeding $35 trillion last July. Although outgoing President Joe Biden succeeded in obtaining Congressional approval to pass an additional budget to fund the federal government after nearly a year of negotiations and Republican obstruction, by the second quarter of next year, Congress will need to take measures to prevent the U.S. government from defaulting on its financial obligations.
Moreover, the issue of military and financial aid to Washington’s allies abroad will resurface in Congress, particularly given the complexity of the military situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front and Kyiv’s need for continued support, alongside the escalating armed conflict in the Middle East with Israel’s insistence on military escalation on multiple fronts. Notably, the issue of military aid to Ukraine, which was part of a broader support package for Israel and Taiwan, occupied Congressional discussions for many months this year due to the Republicans’ refusal, especially from supporters of former President Donald Trump, to discuss or approve it without concessions that would alter the Democratic administration’s funding policies. This indicates that the issue of foreign aid will likely become contentious among Capitol lawmakers if neither party secures a majority in both chambers, or if the next president hails from a party opposing the congressional majority.
Desire of the Republican Party to Heal Internal Divisions: There is a clear desire within the Republican Party to mend internal rifts and restore its standing and popularity among Americans, especially following the party’s modest performance in the November 2022 midterm elections. Although these elections led to a Republican takeover of the House, the results fell short of expectations, yielding a slim majority of 222 seats to the Democrats’ 213, marking one of the lowest majority levels in midterm election history. This disappointment led to several crises within the party as its leaders exchanged blame for its waning stature. The internal strife was reflected in the performance of the Republican bloc in Congress, exemplified by a significant number of GOP representatives voting to oust the majority leader, Kevin McCarthy, from the Speaker’s position last year after collaborating with Democrats to resolve a budget crisis—a first of its kind in U.S. history.
Rising Hopes of the Democratic Party: The Democratic Party is increasingly optimistic about gaining control of Congress, especially after the election momentum generated by Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race on July 21. This has propelled his vice president, Harris, as the party’s candidate. Since then, the Democratic Party has shown notable improvement in public opinion polls, which indicates that the party has gained a relative advantage over the Republican Party during the past three months (from August 1 to October 30, 2024), according to the average public opinion polls conducted daily by FiveThirtyEight.com.
In this context, Democrats are seeking to solidify their control over the Senate and regain dominance in the House of Representatives. They aim to do this through a political and rights-based discourse that aligns with the party’s identity by emphasizing the government’s role in providing adequate health and education, advocating for a fair tax system, and protecting minority rights. This stands in contrast to the Republican narrative, which underscores their capability to pass tax laws aimed at improving citizens’ economic conditions, providing jobs for the unemployed, and curbing inflation.
Expected Outcomes:
Most forecasts indicate that the Congressional elections will witness fierce competition, with the Democratic and Republican parties appearing similarly poised to capture a majority in both the House and Senate, although the Republicans might have an edge in the Senate, while the chances for both parties in the House are closely matched. Nevertheless, it can be said that the electoral landscape might yield some surprises potentially rendering the Congressional battle unprecedented in American political history. Within this framework, the following scenarios can be highlighted:
Deviation from Political Precedents in U.S. Elections: Historically, since the presidency of George H.W. Bush in 1989, the president’s party has controlled both houses of Congress. However, the current elections may break this pattern. This can be attributed to the intense political polarization surrounding Harris and Trump, which may lead to greater divisions among voters regarding their political opinions, thereby affecting their voting behavior in inexplicable ways compared to previous elections. This means that some voters might, for instance, cast their votes for the Democratic presidential candidate while opting for the Republican nominee in congressional elections, or vice versa.
This analysis aligns with predictions made by The Economist’s model on October 10, 2024, which suggested a 66% chance of Republicans controlling the Senate and a 61% chance for Democrats winning the House, regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins the presidential election. Although the likelihood of Democrats winning the House decreased in another report from the same publication on October 28 to 53%, it still suggests that the upcoming general election will reflect a sharp divide in voter behavior.
In the same vein, an analysis published by CNN on October 22 indicated that the next Congressional elections might see a new phenomenon occurring for the first time in 230 years—flipping party control of one house in exchange for control of the other; meaning that Democrats might lose their current majority in the Senate while gaining a majority in the House, while Republicans would maintain control over the upcoming Senate with a loss in the House.
Potential Republican Control of the Senate: Considering the current electoral landscape which seems to provide a relative advantage to Republicans, leading some to believe that regaining a Senate majority is “likely” whether Harris or Trump wins the presidential race, as suggested by a report from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics on October 18.
On one hand, Democrats are facing a daunting task to maintain their slim majority in the current Senate at 51 seats. The challenge lies in the fact that they control two-thirds of the seats that are up for election—23 out of 34—and among these, 7 are in battleground states with intense competition between Democrats and Republicans, and 3 more in states that voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Moreover, Democrats begin the election cycle with a loss of an independent senator’s seat, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who announced his retirement. Polls illustrate a significant lead for Republican candidate Jim Justice over his Democratic counterpart, showcasing a 34-point advantage in a survey published by FiveThirtyEight.com on August 27; this implies that assuming Democrats retain all their current seats, they still need Harris to win the presidency to ensure her vice president’s vote to break any tie.
On another front, polling results indicate that the chances of Republicans securing a majority in the Senate are nearing 75%, anticipating they will retain all their seats while potentially increasing their count by at least two. Among these, polls highlight Republican Tim Sheehy holding a four-point edge over Democratic Senator Jon Tester, as per a poll from Emerson College on October 27, and Republican candidate Bernie Moreno having a two-point advantage over Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in one of the most contentious battlegrounds, according to a poll from Activote on October 29. Furthermore, Republican candidates appear to lead in Texas and Florida, states Democrats are vying to win, with both showing a four-point margin in favor of Republicans, according to a poll published by 270towin on October 30.
Tightly Matched Chances in the House: In contrast to the Senate, the two parties are neck-and-neck according to polling results for the House of Representatives, with a very narrow gap. For example, both 270towin and FiveThirtyEight.com project a Republican victory with 218 seats against 217 for Democrats, based on polling results from swing districts, particularly in Arizona, California, Michigan, and New York, on October 29 and 30, respectively. Furthermore, a study released by the Pew Research Center on October 30 noted that since 1922, Americans have tended to prefer voting for the majority party in the House before elections, only to flip it in midterm elections; thus, previous voting patterns could indicate a likelihood of Republicans taking majority control in the House.
Conversely, other estimates suggest that Democrats may regain control of the House, citing factors like the Republican Party’s poor performance in the midterms and a legislative and oversight effort that some have labeled as “the worst” in recent party history. Moreover, Democrats have been generously funding the most competitive seats to reclaim influence, sometimes spending three times the amount Republicans, who are facing severe liquidity issues. For instance, in August, Democratic campaigns raised about 22.3million,whileRepublicansmanagedonly22.3million,whileRepublicansmanagedonly9.7 million.
Additionally, Democrats have a comparatively easier path to victory in the House, needing to win 11 out of 25 battleground districts, of which only 5 had previously backed Trump, while Republicans must win 14 of 25 battlegrounds, 12 of which supported Biden in the last presidential election, according to the Cook Political Report on October 25. Based on polling results in these swing districts, The Economist projected on October 30 that Democrats would secure 218 seats in the House, with Republicans at 217. They also indicated increasing expectations regarding the Democratic Party’s capacity to flip several currently Republican-held districts, especially in New York and California.
Similarly, a report from the British firm YouGov on October 16 revealed remaining opportunities for Democrats to secure a House majority. In three thousand simulations of the House election run by the firm, Democrats achieved a 62% chance of securing the majority. The report stated that the average number of seats Democrats are projected to win ranges from 218 to 220, compared to 215 or 217 for Republicans. Notably, these projections have not significantly differed from the previous report published by the same firm on September 23.
Open Possibilities:
In light of the aforementioned factors, it is plausible that the two major parties will share control of both chambers of Congress, leading to a continuation of the political deadlock that the United States has experienced over the past two years due to Congressional division, which could persist until November 2026.
This would result in the stalling of various promises and initiatives proposed by the presidential candidates concerning immigration, abortion, healthcare, climate change, tax cuts or increases, and military and foreign aid. Regardless of who reaches the White House, it is certain that significant progress toward achieving most of their goals will be hampered without congressional approval; this means that the period following November 5 is likely to witness a divided Congress that hinders the president’s ability to implement their agenda, save for outlining the broad strokes of foreign policy and imposing certain tariffs for national security considerations.
Nonetheless, it can be asserted that predicting the outcomes of Congressional elections is akin to guessing the state of a coin after it has been flipped; all possibilities regarding the parliamentary majority within the halls of “Capitol Hill” remain open, particularly since the election campaigns in competitive and swing districts are characterized by excessive fluidity and uncertainty. The results largely express the volatile political and popular mood of voters, especially in House elections which are held every two years where any incidental event could sway a voter’s decision on Election Day. Additionally, there exists a critical bloc that has yet to finalize their electoral decision in the most competitive House districts, and their participation could create an impact exceeding various expectations, especially if they opt to vote for the same party in both presidential and Congressional elections out of concern for the specter of political gridlock.
very informative blog
Thank you