Military and strategy experts often argue that one of the key lessons drawn from history is that any state deciding to wage war against another must have clear and well-defined objectives. Accordingly, it should decide to end the war once those objectives are achieved.
If we attempt to apply this lesson to the statements of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the objectives of the ongoing war launched with Israel against Iran since February 28, 2026, it becomes evident that Trump did not maintain a consistent position. The goals he announced shifted over the course of the war, ranging from forcing Iran’s surrender, to destroying its military capabilities in all forms, to toppling the ruling regime, and ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s statements also varied regarding the expected duration of the conflict—at times suggesting it would last a month or more, and at others claiming that U.S. forces were progressing according to schedule and that almost no targets remained.
Shifting Objectives:
Let us examine these U.S. positions on the current war as expressed by Trump in chronological order, noting that the focus here is on his verbal statements and social media posts, rather than media analyses or leaks.
In the first days of the war, Trump defined its objective as “regime change,” calling on the Iranian people to “seize the opportunity and take control.” In an eight-minute video addressed to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, military, and police forces, he said: “Tonight I tell you: lay down your arms and enjoy full immunity, or you will face certain death.” He repeated this message, urging them to surrender and promising fair treatment with full immunity, otherwise warning of inevitable death. He also called on “the great Iranian people” to take control after the battle, describing it as “perhaps your last opportunity for generations,” and stating that “the time has come to determine your destiny and unleash a prosperous and glorious future within your reach.”
In the same speech, Trump pledged to destroy Iran’s missiles, eliminate its missile program, annihilate its naval fleet, and ensure it does not possess nuclear weapons. The following day, he celebrated the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several top- and second-tier officials.
Two days after the war began, on March 2, Trump outlined four objectives: destroying ballistic missile capabilities, completely eliminating naval forces, ensuring Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons, and preventing it from arming, funding, and leading “terrorist armies” beyond its borders in the region.
Notably, references to regime change, calls for surrender, and appeals for popular uprising disappeared at this stage, although Trump returned to this rhetoric on March 6, stating on his platform Truth Social that “there will be no deal with Iran except in the case of unconditional surrender.”
On March 15, Trump stated that “Iran wants to make a deal, and I do not want to make one because the terms are not good enough,” suggesting that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, should do “something very wise for his country if he is alive,” while adding that reports of his death were “just a rumor.” This implied that Trump was demanding Iran change its conditions and accept his own terms to end the war.
On March 20, Trump declared U.S. military victory, writing: “The battle in Iran has been decided militarily,” adding that “we can talk with Iran, but we are not seeking to stop the war, and Israel will end the war when the United States decides.” The following day, March 21, at the beginning of the fourth week of the war—and amid growing economic consequences of disrupted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz—Trump outlined four conditions for ending the conflict: the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours (a deadline set to expire on March 23), threatening to destroy Iranian energy infrastructure if it remained closed; the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, including all reactors; the suspension of its ballistic missile program for at least five years; and the complete cessation of support for regional proxies.
Here, a new objective emerges: freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the negative economic impact of disrupted shipping. Trump’s stance on how to address the disruption also shifted. Initially, he suggested that the U.S. Navy would escort oil tankers and ensure their protection.
In another statement, he called on NATO countries and major Asian powers such as China and Japan to participate in an international naval force to secure navigation in the strait, but none agreed. He later argued that responsibility for securing navigation should fall on the countries that benefit from it, claiming the United States was not among them, and accusing NATO allies of being “cowards.” Notably, he did not mention regime change in Tehran or Iran’s future after the war, nor whether it would continue to pose a threat to U.S. allies in the region.
Trump’s Conditions:
There are reasons to believe Trump is eager to declare military victory, claim credit, and bring the war to an end. He seeks to avoid a prolonged environment of rising energy prices in the United States, which affects nearly every American citizen—especially as his Republican Party faces midterm elections in November 2026, covering all House seats, one-third of the Senate, as well as several governorships, state legislatures, mayoral positions, and judicial offices.
It is worth recalling that ending any war requires agreement among its parties, and the problem with Trump’s declared conditions is that they are unacceptable to Iran. Official statements from Tehran indicate that it is not seeking a temporary truce or ceasefire, but rather a full end to the conflict. Iranian officials view abandoning uranium enrichment and missile capabilities as “political suicide,” and their current strategy is to continue the war and strike U.S. interests in the region—effectively expanding the conflict.
Before the 48-hour deadline expired, Trump surprised the world on the morning of Monday, March 23, announcing that the previous two days had witnessed “very good and productive” discussions between the United States and Iran regarding a comprehensive resolution to hostilities in the Middle East. He added that “based on the spirit and substance of these deep, detailed, and constructive discussions, which will continue this week, I have ordered the Department of War to halt any military strikes against Iran’s energy facilities and infrastructure for five days.” In effect, these discussions prompted him to extend the previously announced deadline by five additional days.
For its part, Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied any direct contacts between Washington and Tehran. Trump responded by asserting that his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, had communicated with a senior Iranian official whose identity he did not disclose. As of the evening of Tuesday, March 24, it remains unclear what is truly happening or how events may unfold, although it is evident that these developments have not yet affected the course of military operations on the ground.
In conclusion, media reports indicate that the United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, though Tehran’s response remains unclear as the fourth week of the conflict draws to a close. In all cases, the battlefield remains the ultimate test, alongside the accelerating negative economic effects—particularly the impact of disrupted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on global energy prices and supply chains.
