The Spider’s Web: Warfare in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

The landscape of modern warfare is rapidly transforming. Drones and artificial intelligence (AI) are rewriting the rules of engagement, challenging conventional military strategies and redefining the concept of dominance. This is exemplified by a recent operation, code-named “Spider’s Web,” where Ukraine, using inexpensive drones, crippled strategic bombers within Russia’s heartland. This daring operation signifies a shift towards asymmetric warfare, where innovation and strategic thinking can overcome traditional military might.

The Operation:

In a testament to ingenuity and adaptability, Ukraine executed “Spider’s Web,” a complex operation involving the strategic deployment of drones. The operation, reportedly 18 months in the making, involved smuggling dozens of small drones into Russia. These drones were then stored in hidden compartments within transport trucks. From these concealed launch sites, the drones were remotely launched, targeting airbases thousands of kilometers away. These attacks caused significant damage, potentially impacting up to 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers.

The operation specifically targeted two airbases. According to reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense, the attacks caused fires on several aircraft. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that 117 drones were deployed in the attack.

The drones utilized were likely First-Person View (FPV) models. These small, lightweight, and relatively inexpensive drones are equipped with cameras for live video feeds. They are either remotely piloted or pre-programmed and are often used for targeted strikes. Although the drones are typically equipped with small warheads, they are sufficient to damage aircraft or ignite fires within sensitive military facilities. Their range typically extends between 5 and 20 kilometers. The geographical limitations of these drones were overcome by pre-positioning them near the targeted airbases inside the trucks.

The damage inflicted by “Spider’s Web” is potentially substantial. While verifying the full extent of the losses is challenging, reports indicate that around 41 strategic bombers, out of approximately 120 possessed by Russia, were targeted. These included Tu-95s, strategic bombers used for long-range strikes, and Tu-22s, capable of striking both land and sea targets. The most significant losses involved two Tu-160 supersonic bombers, which were destroyed.

The overall value of the losses is estimated at around $7 billion.

The Role of AI:

The “Spider’s Web” operation underscores the increasing role of AI in modern warfare. AI algorithms were used to program the flight paths of the drones, evade air defenses, and identify targets. AI isn’t just a support tool anymore; it’s become integral to military decision-making.

Behind the scenes, artificial intelligence served as the unseen engine. Programming the drones’ flight paths, evading defense systems, and utilizing target recognition systems within the military bases, all point to algorithms that have become a part of military decision-making centers, not just a tool for support.

A New Era of Warfare:

In a new era, quantity has become a quality, and the ability to deploy many smart, low-cost tools can create a strategic advantage. These can be more effective than traditional defenses.

In a traditional military structure, the balance of power has long been measured by the number of tanks, fighter jets, and the size of military budgets. Today, AI introduces a new qualitative factor: the ability to create robotic armies of inexpensive, unmanned vehicles. These drones become the cruise missiles of the weaker side. They are inexpensive and widely available compared to the air defense systems designed to stop them. Moreover, an attack with cheap drones becomes a war of attrition.

This stark disparity between the “cost of the threat” and the “cost of the response” reveals a strategic dilemma that major armies have yet to resolve: how to counter a simple, widespread weapon without overusing expensive, unsustainable defense mechanisms.

The traditional concept of deterrence has also been impacted by AI technologies. No adversary can know with certainty what AI systems can accomplish or their capabilities. These technologies are confusing in the battlefield and traditional combat tools, while decreasing the effectiveness of traditional deterrence. This has led to a new deterrent environment that relies less on clear punishments and more on the ambiguity of capabilities and the multiplicity of threat scenarios.

The “Spider’s Web” operation has proven the concept of “web-like” war: a series of drones, which can be assembled locally, are controlled by a set of algorithms. They take off from trucks that may even be self-driving in different parts of the country, and head to strike highly secured military bases, critical infrastructure, or even assassinate political and military leaders. All this can be done without the need for ground troops or the need to send missiles across borders. Also, no one will claim the operation. The primary suspect will be “Artificial Intelligence”.

The United States’ Influence:

The United States likely contributed to the planning of this operation to pressure the Russian president into serious negotiations to end the war. In August 2023, Kathleen Hicks, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, spoke in a speech entitled “The Urgency to Innovate” at the National Defense Industrial Association about the need to develop smart, relatively inexpensive, unmanned systems. She announced an initiative called “Replicator,” a strategy through which the United States seeks to develop AI-powered technologies that can be sacrificed. This strategy included fleets of unmanned, smart, and relatively inexpensive weapons and equipment. Hicks described these weapons and equipment as “expendable,” meaning that they can be destroyed without affecting the mission’s safety and without incurring high financial losses. This is precisely what happened in the “Spider’s Web” operation.

Conclusion:

“Spider’s Web” is a watershed moment. It illustrates the dawn of a new era in warfare, where AI-powered drones are reshaping military strategy. In this new paradigm, smaller, more agile forces equipped with advanced technology can neutralize the advantages of a larger adversary. This marks a shift in the battlefield, highlighting the importance of innovation, adaptability, and the strategic use of technology in the face of evolving threats.