Escalating Tensions: What Are the Implications of Russia and Turkey Resuming Joint Patrols in Northern Syria?
On August 23, 2024, the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced that Turkish and Russian forces resumed joint ground patrols in Syria’s northeastern province of Hasakah on August 22, 2024. This marked the first such operation in almost a year and is part of the provisions of the Russian-Turkish memorandum of understanding signed on October 22, 2019, signaling a renewed security cooperation between the two countries in Syria.
The Turkish Ministry of Defense stated that these joint ground patrols would continue in the near future to consolidate stability in northeastern Syria, ensure the security of Turkey’s borders, and demonstrate Turkish-Russian cooperation in combating terrorism. The ministry noted that the patrols resumed with armored vehicles, involving four vehicles and 24 personnel. Although the ministry did not comment on why these patrols were suspended in October 2023, it reported that a total of 344 patrols had been conducted since 2019.
Motivating Factors
Several factors explain the resumption of joint patrols between Russia and Turkey in Syria, including:
Escalating Clashes Between Arab Tribes and the SDF: The joint patrols by Ankara and Moscow are closely tied to the escalating clashes between Arab tribes loyal to the Syrian government and Iran, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). These clashes began on August 7, 2024, and peaked when tribal forces declared they “would not lay down arms or abandon the land until it is liberated and cleansed from the Qandil gangs,” referring to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). This situation prompted the Kurdish Autonomous Administration to request support from the US-led international coalition. Although Moscow exerted pressure to stop the fighting, Russian mediation has so far been unable to resolve the disputes between the tribes and the Kurds.
Responding to US Moves in Northeastern Syria: The joint patrols by Russia and Turkey are part of their efforts to counter recent US moves in northeastern Syria. Washington has recently bolstered its military bases in Syria, particularly the Al-Shaddadi base and the Al-Omar oil field base, with advanced weapons. According to the Syrian Observatory, on August 20, 2024, the US conducted live-fire joint military exercises with the SDF at the Al-Omar oil field and Conoco gas field bases in the Deir ez-Zor countryside. US forces also conducted intensive military drills inside their bases, testing advanced laser-based air defense systems. In this context, the Russian-Turkish actions aim to curb Washington’s activities, which could impact their interests, and increase pressure on US forces in northern Syria by enhancing military cooperation between Ankara and Moscow. Both Turkey and Russia recognize the importance of limiting US actions, as they pose a direct threat to their objectives in the Syrian arena. Notably, Washington opposes any Turkish military moves against the SDF.
Advancing the Normalization Process Between Turkey and Syria: The patrols are also partly aimed at advancing the normalization and rapprochement process between Ankara and Damascus. The current developments in northeastern Syria, and the resultant security cooperation between Turkey and Russia, offer the latter an opportunity to push for normalization between Ankara and Damascus. While Turkey seeks to neutralize the threats posed by the Kurdish Autonomous Administration, the Syrian government aims to regain control of northern Syria. Therefore, from Russia’s perspective, the joint patrols between Moscow and Ankara could serve as a potential gateway to address the contentious issues between Ankara and Damascus and, consequently, end the rift between the two countries.
Exploiting Hidden Tensions Between Damascus and Tehran: Turkey and Russia are keen to capitalize on the underlying tensions between Tehran and Damascus at this time, particularly as Syrian support for Iranian regional policies has waned. This was evident when the Syrian government refrained from entering the fray between Israel and Iran following the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024. Some reports suggest that the Syrian government informed Iran that it does not want to be dragged into a full-scale war, especially as Damascus is still grappling with the severe repercussions of the crisis that began in 2011, particularly on the economic front. Moreover, the Syrian government is eager to end its international isolation.
Concerns Over Syria Becoming a Battleground for Iranian-Israeli Confrontation: Tensions between Israel and Iran, along with their regional proxies, have escalated recently, raising the possibility of another confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, especially after the assassinations of Haniyeh and prominent Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr. There are fears that Syria could become one of the battlegrounds between the two sides. Therefore, Russia and Turkey may aim to use their joint patrols in northeastern Syria to exert pressure on Israel to keep the Syrian interior away from any potential confrontations, or at least send an indirect message that there is joint Turkish-Russian defensive cooperation ready to respond to any threats that could affect their interests in Syria.
Potential Consequences
The joint patrols between Ankara and Moscow in northern Syria could have several implications, including:
Increased Tensions Between Washington and Ankara-Moscow: These patrols could escalate tensions between Washington on one side and Ankara and Moscow on the other, especially as they could affect current US military operations and plans in northeastern Syria, which are in place to prepare for any potential confrontations between Iran and Israel.
Strengthening Russian Presence in Northeastern Syria: The joint patrols between Ankara and Moscow in northeastern Syria are expected to bolster Russia’s military presence in an area where Turkey holds significant influence. This aligns with Moscow’s efforts to affirm its position as the primary military actor in Syria overall.
Increased Turkish Pressure on the Kurds in Syria: The joint patrols are likely to increase Turkish pressure on the Kurdish Autonomous Administration, potentially limiting the movements of the SDF and reinforcing some of the gains that Arab tribes have secured during their clashes with the SDF. This indicates Ankara’s desire to intensify pressure on the SDF to weaken it in anticipation of potential Turkish confrontations with the Kurdish Autonomous Administration in the near future.
Pushing Turkey and Russia to Resolve Some Disputes: The joint patrols between Ankara and Moscow could serve as a means for the two countries to overcome some of their disagreements, or at least de-escalate tensions between them, particularly regarding the Ukrainian crisis. This comes after Turkey responded to some Western pressures by imposing restrictions on Russian financial transfers through Turkish banks.
Strategic Point
In conclusion, northeastern Syria represents a strategic point driving increased coordination between Ankara and Moscow in the Syrian arena to secure their interests, while simultaneously neutralizing pressures from regional and international rivals on one hand, and curbing the movements of local adversaries on the other. Many analysts predict that Russia and Turkey will continue to adopt an approach based on advancing cooperation in Syria, particularly given Washington’s current efforts to strengthen its military influence in the country, and Ankara and Moscow’s concerns about Syria becoming a battleground for settling scores between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
