The “Faye” Challenge: What Are the Implications of Forming a New Opposition Alliance in Senegal?
Senegal, located in the West African region, is currently experiencing significant political shifts. Opposition forces are seeking to enhance their presence through various mechanisms, the most recent being the announcement of a new expanded opposition coalition. This coalition, named the “Bloc of Liberals and Democrats” (BLD), comprises a large number of opposition parties and liberal and democratic movements, numbering about 40 political parties and movements. Among the most prominent is the “Alliance for the Republic” (APR), the party of former President Macky Sall. The formation of this coalition comes amid expectations of a possible dissolution of the National Assembly and the holding of new legislative elections in the coming months, as tensions escalate between the ruling regime led by current President Bassirou Dioumay Faye and the political opposition over the issuance of the general policy statement. This political development raises several questions about the effectiveness of this new opposition coalition.
Key Implications
There are several key implications associated with the recent formation of a new opposition coalition in Senegal, which include the following:
1. The Opposition’s Success in Forming a Broad Organizational Framework Against the Ruling Regime: This was crystallized through the political opposition’s formation of a broad coalition on August 22, 2024, called the “Bloc of Liberals and Democrats” (BLD) or “Tako.” This coalition includes a large number of political parties and movements in Senegal opposing the ruling regime led by current President Bassirou Dioumay Faye, comprising about 40 political parties. Among the most prominent are the “Alliance for the Republic” (APR), the party of former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and the “Rewmi Party” led by Idrissa Seck, who served as Prime Minister between 2002 and 2004 under former President Abdoulaye Wade. Seck participated for the fourth consecutive time in the recent 2024 presidential elections. He was a leading opponent of former President Macky Sall before eventually joining and supporting him. Other notable participants include the “Liberal-Democratic Party” and the Union of Centrists in Senegal (UCS).
2. The Opposition’s Attempt to Form a Unified Front for Political Mobilization: This was manifested in the founding announcement of the new coalition, which stated that its primary goal is to gather human, material, and financial resources to promote shared policies and values. Modou Diagne Fada, one of the founding members of the new coalition, emphasized that the coalition’s establishment primarily aims to create an opposition bloc to the government, representing an ideological alternative to the ruling regime. Additionally, it reflects a significant electoral bloc in the upcoming legislative elections, aiming to secure a parliamentary majority that would force the ruling regime to coexist with the political opposition.
3. The Opposition’s Growing Concerns About the Possibility of Early Legislative Elections: These concerns stem from the growing political differences between the government and the National Assembly since current President Bassirou Dioumay Faye took office in April 2024. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko refused to deliver the general policy statement in early July 2024, arguing that the parliamentary rules do not require him to do so since the Prime Minister’s position was abolished in 2019. Although the position was reinstated in 2021, the relevant rules were not incorporated back into the parliamentary framework. Article 55 of the Constitution mandates that the Prime Minister presents the government’s policy statement, outlining the key policies, plans, and political priorities before the National Assembly within three months of appointment, according to the Assembly’s internal regulations.
Prime Minister Sonko reaffirmed his commitment to respecting the separation of powers and the principle of legality. He announced that if the issue is not resolved by July 15, 2024, he would submit his government’s policy statement to the Senegalese people and a jury consisting of academics, intellectuals, and non-political citizens. This would provide an opportunity for a free and open discussion, leading to divisions within the Assembly. Legislators from the ruling party supported the decision, while opposition lawmakers condemned it. The ruling coalition, “Benno Bokk Yaakaar,” used its parliamentary majority to cancel the budget discussion scheduled for June 29, 2024. It is worth noting that the Assembly held its first extraordinary session on August 13, 2024, to discuss internal regulations, resulting in an agreement to update these regulations.
4. Former President Macky Sall’s Efforts to Quickly Return to the Political Scene: This is evidenced by the presence of his party, the “Alliance for the Republic” (APR), at the forefront of the parties participating in the newly formed opposition coalition in late August 2024. This may enhance the party’s chances of making a significant impact in the National Assembly in the event of early legislative elections. Sall’s aspirations in this regard are not disconnected from his previous attempts to secure a new presidential term by amending the Constitution, which failed due to the escalating anti-government protests that resulted in widespread violence in mid-2023.
Central Challenges
There are several challenges that the newly formed broad opposition coalition in Senegal may face, the most prominent of which are highlighted below:
1. The Absence of Some Effective Political Players from the Coalition: Among the most notable absentees is Karim Wade, the son of former President Abdoulaye Wade, who ruled the country from 2000 to 2012. Karim Wade leads the “Senegalese Democratic Party” (PDS) and was barred from running in the 2024 presidential elections due to his ineligibility, given his dual French and Senegalese citizenship. Channels of communication have been opened to include him in the new coalition. The same applies to the previous presidential candidate Alioune Amadou Ba, who positioned himself as a candidate for stability and continuity in economic policies during former President Macky Sall’s term. Ba held several ministerial positions, including Foreign Affairs, Economy, and Finance.
2. The Ruling Regime’s Strong Popular Support Base: President Bassirou Dioumay Faye is seen as a symbol of popular struggle and genuine political opposition during the era of former President Macky Sall, who imprisoned him in April 2023 for nearly a year. This significantly boosted his popular support, helping him secure victory in the first round of the 2024 presidential elections. Faye enjoys considerable legitimacy and acceptance from citizens due to his political speeches emphasizing independence and distancing Senegal from French influence, particularly economically and culturally. He also advocates for individual and collective freedoms and calls for solutions to the problems of marginalized groups in society.
Since taking office, President Faye’s government has sought to open communication channels with citizens, exemplified by Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko’s invitation in late August 2024 to organize training and informational workshops across the country. These workshops aim to gather citizens’ opinions to ensure a shared understanding of the government’s program and ensure everyone’s contribution to its success, which largely depends on popular support.
3. The Government’s Development of Effective Responses to Existing Problems: These responses have long been demanded by political forces in the country. For instance, in late August 2024, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko established a committee responsible for reviewing contracts signed by the state with foreign companies to identify unfair agreements. This committee is tasked with tracking inconsistencies, uncovering legal loopholes, and restoring Senegal’s rightful position in economic partnerships, especially in the oil and gas sector. According to observers, this committee is expected to review agreements with the Australian company Woodside, which operates the Sangomar oil field about 100 kilometers south of Dakar, and with British Petroleum, which operates the GTA gas field jointly with Mauritania in the north of the country.
Additionally, the government plans to implement a plan to rescue Senegal Airlines, which is struggling with various challenges. This was revealed by the Senegalese Minister of Infrastructure and Air Transport, Malick Ndiaye, in an interview with the BBC on August 20, 2024. Moreover, the government launched a poverty reduction project on June 25, 2024, with financial support from the Canadian government, amounting to 9 billion CFA francs across four regions: Tambacounda (in the east), Kolda, and Sédhiou (in the south), and two districts in the Dakar region, Rufisque and Guédiawaye (in the west). The project mainly aims to support and empower women and youth economically and socially, and to enhance their financial inclusion.
Furthermore, on August 14, 2024, President Faye called on the government to complete the updating of the Agricultural and Pastoral Forest Guidance Law, re-establish the agricultural research and advisory policy according to international standards, revitalize the national agricultural and forestry research system, and strengthen the Senegalese Institute of Agricultural Research with advanced technological infrastructure and significant human and financial resources. He also announced on July 4, 2024, the establishment of a Supreme Judicial Council and a Constitutional Court, along with the creation of a position for a judge of freedoms and detention to improve the judicial system in the country.
4. The Impact of Former President Macky Sall’s Presence on the Coalition’s Effectiveness: This is underscored by the growing societal rejection of Sall, given the policies and practices during his tenure (2012-2024). According to the World Bank, poverty rates reached about 37.4% in 2018, and Senegal was classified as a lower-middle-income country in 2019. Moreover, Senegal ranked 170th out of 191 countries on the Human Development Index in 2021, and inequality worsened according to the Gini coefficient.
In conclusion, the formation of a new, broad opposition coalition in Senegal reflects an attempt by the opposition to reestablish itself by creating unity and integration to build a solid political foundation among the populace. The effectiveness of this coalition will depend on its ability to sustain and expand, especially considering the significant societal transformations Senegal is currently experiencing.
