The Iron Circle: How Has the Elite Close to the Chinese President Changed?

The 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October 2022 resulted in decisions that all served to reinforce President Xi Jinping’s control over the party. Xi secured an unprecedented third presidential term by renewing his position as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party for another five years. Although the nature of the elite close to President Xi remains somewhat obscure due to the complexity of the Chinese political landscape, the developments following the 20th Party Congress have revealed some characteristics of this elite. In this context, the websites “Intelligence Online” and the “Financial Times” published reports titled “A New Faction Forms Around Xi Jinping: The Tsinghua Clique” and “China’s Palace Politics: Xi Jinping Loyalists Compete for Power” on January 25, 2022, respectively. These reports attempted to highlight the key changes within the Chinese elite.

Elite Loyalty

The reports emphasized that while the elite in China is undoubtedly loyal to President Xi, this has not prevented the emergence of competition among its different factions for the post-Xi era. These dynamics are reflected in the following points:

First, Xi has promoted individuals he trusts to senior positions. During an upcoming joint session of the Chinese Parliament and the Political Consultative Conference, President Xi is expected to confirm several appointments to senior state positions. Most of these appointees are men whom Xi has known since his youth or trusted officials who have worked with him over decades at the beginning of his career. Additionally, there are rising figures who have shown their loyalty to the most powerful leader in China since Mao Zedong. These appointments will further consolidate Xi’s power as he embarks on an unprecedented third five-year term as the leader of the Chinese Communist Party.

Secondly, Xi has increasingly surrounded himself with a small group of officials who studied at his alma mater, Tsinghua University, known for its close ties to Chinese security institutions and the People’s Liberation Army. Xi has shown a preference for collaborating with people in small groups whom he has known for a long time, rather than more experienced officials.

The Rise of the Tsinghua Clique

Chen Xi, who served as the Director of the Organization Department of the Chinese Communist Party in 2017, is considered the leader of the new Tsinghua clique, which comprises loyalists from Xi’s university in Beijing. Although Chen Xi left the Politburo after the 20th Party Congress in October, he still holds significant influence over Xi. Chen Xi attended Tsinghua University at the same time as Xi Jinping. After completing his master’s degree, Chen remained at the university until the late 1980s, coordinating activities for the Communist Youth League, and his involvement in these activities was a key reason Xi chose him to coordinate this emerging and powerful faction. This group also includes Li Ganjie, the former party secretary of Shandong, and Chen Jining, the party secretary in Shanghai and former deputy mayor of Beijing. Li Ganjie is expected to become the new head of the Organization Department of the Chinese Communist Party, while Chen Jining was sent to Shanghai to replace the future Premier Li Qiang.

Elite Factional Competition

While it is unlikely that Xi’s position and authority as the supreme leader will face any challenges from within the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, competition between the factions and groups close to Xi has started to surface. Despite the fact that centralizing decision-making has been a hallmark of Xi’s leadership over the past decade, which has diminished the influence of other senior leaders, this competition poses no threat to Xi’s strong grip on power. However, these factions are likely to compete for influence and control in the future, particularly over who will succeed Xi at the top of the party.

Wide Geographical, Sectoral, and Social Spread of the Elite

According to Wu Guoguang, who served as an advisor to former Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang, there are four significant groups comprising officials who worked with Xi in Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai, as well as Shaanxi, the northern province with which Xi’s family has deep ties. Wu also revealed five other groups, which include officials from the military and industrial sectors, those with ties to the prestigious Tsinghua University, members associated with the Central Party School, and several officials with clear connections to Xi’s wife, Peng Liyuan, and the security sector.

Among Xi’s supporters from his time as governor of Fujian are He Lifeng, Vice Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference since 2018, Cai Qi, the new head of propaganda in the Chinese Communist Party, and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong. Victor Shih, an expert in Chinese elite politics at the University of California, narrowed down the most important groups close to Xi, which include those from Zhejiang – where Xi served as party chief from 2002 to 2007 – such as Li Qiang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and the frontrunner to be the next Chinese Premier. There is also the new party chief in Guangdong, Huang Kunming, and the new Minister of State Security, Chen Yixin.

Inevitable Conflicts

In conclusion, the reports stressed that the network of relationships linking President Xi with the elite close to him is highly complex and centers on a key criterion: loyalty and trust in the president. The analysts noted that understanding the backgrounds, personalities, ideological leanings, political preferences, and personal networks of Xi’s top aides is crucial for clarifying the often opaque and unpredictable world of Chinese politics. The reports underscored that competition between the new factions close to Xi for power in the post-Xi era will be inevitable in the coming years. Moreover, generational change will also fuel power struggles among these emerging sub-factions.

Sources:

• “A New Faction Forms Around Xi Jinping: The Tsinghua Clique,” Intelligence Online, January 25, 2023.
• Edward White, “China’s Palace Politics: Xi Jinping Loyalists Compete for Power,” Financial Times, January 25, 2023.