The development of “drone swarm” technologies, powered by artificial intelligence, is reshaping the current concept of warfare. Their low cost and the ability of hundreds to pose an existential threat to conventional armies are significant factors. Advanced armies are largely capable of countering individually operating drones, but drone swarms deployed for specific objectives in the midst of military battles or ongoing conflicts present a substantial challenge to armies and the concept of military deterrence.
Drone swarms involve the coordinated operation of at least three drones, extending to hundreds simultaneously, executing tasks collaboratively. Currently, drone swarms are being developed through advanced and complex algorithms, utilizing local sensing and communication technologies to synchronize the drones. These swarms can be controlled either through pre-programmed missions, central control from a ground station, or through AI technologies that enable drone swarms to respond to new and unexpected situations promptly, accurately, and in a coordinated manner.
Indicators of Interest
Several indicators suggest growing interest from states and non-state armed actors in acquiring advanced drone swarms:
Development by Startups in Ukraine: Some Ukrainian startups revealed in July 2024 that they had developed AI systems capable of operating a massive fleet of drone swarms. Kyiv hopes this will provide a qualitative advantage in its confrontation with Russia, particularly in tasks related to electronic warfare jamming and the precise targeting of military facilities and oil refineries located hundreds of kilometers within Russian territory.
The development of AI-powered drone swarms is divided into visual systems for target identification, mapping systems for flight navigation, and complex software enabling the drones to operate as an interconnected swarm in executing specified military objectives. The “Styx” system is one of the prominent systems linking drone swarms with AI, tested for reconnaissance and targeting adversaries, whether in the air or on the ground. This system is distinguished by its ability to plan coordinated movements for the drone swarm and protect operators near the front lines.
U.S. Army Interest in “Mixed Drone Swarms”: Western reports revealed in May 2024 a collaboration between two American companies to operate mixed drone swarms using advanced technology within a system known as “Hive.” This system operates with minimal human intervention, allowing for the launch, return, and recharging of drone swarms at the press of a button. It also includes handling different types of drones for various tasks.
Additionally, the U.S. Department of Defense signed at least five military contracts to develop advanced drone swarms, focusing primarily on enhancing the combat and reconnaissance capabilities of these drones. Notable developments in this context include the “Replicator” program, which aims to produce large numbers of low-cost drones to provide immediate and effective military support in wars and military battles. Among the most prominent drones is the “XQ-58,” capable of making decisions independently of human direction, relying on advanced algorithms like “Particle Swarm Optimization” and “Ant Colony Optimization,” which allow swarms to operate with high coordination and efficiency in executing complex tasks.
International Competition to Develop “Intelligent Drone Swarms”: Drone swarms are classified into three categories: the first includes groups of drones coordinated by some operators; the second involves drones coordinated individually with limited human control; and the third category is intelligent drone swarms that can communicate with each other through AI technologies and respond to threats and handle them. According to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), part of the U.S. Department of Defense, intelligent swarm technologies are expected to be tested on more than 150 drones by 2027. There is global interest in these technologies, similar to that of China, Russia, India, the United Kingdom, and even Turkey.
AI technologies give intelligent drone swarms the ability to operate independently and collaborate without direct human intervention, using machine learning and deep learning algorithms. This includes the ability to coordinate attacks and respond to threats or challenges that arise in the operational environment of drone swarms quickly and efficiently.
Use by Armed Non-State Actors of “Suicide Drone Swarms”: In June and July 2024, the Lebanese Hezbollah executed attacks using suicide drone swarms on Israeli military sites, resulting in casualties among Israeli soldiers. This raises questions about non-state armed actors possessing such advanced technologies, in addition to the failure of air defenses of countries with significant military capabilities to intercept these drone swarms. This opens the door to a reconfiguration of modern warfare in the near future.
According to estimates by MarketsandMarkets, the military drone market is expected to reach a value of $447.2 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 40.47%. This substantial growth indicates a promising global market, driven mainly by the use of drone swarms for intelligence gathering, reconnaissance, and targeting adversaries, which could revolutionize military tactics and capabilities worldwide.
Challenges of Drone Swarms
Advanced technologies associated with military-use drone swarms face several challenges:
The Dilemma of “Uncontrolled Proliferation” of Drone Swarms: AI-powered drone swarm technologies may be relatively easy for some states or non-state armed actors or terrorist organizations to acquire due to their low cost and high effectiveness. This could revolutionize the phenomenon of terrorism, transnational crimes, and the growing threats in conflict zones, potentially leading to further instability in various regions worldwide.
Concerns of “Unintended Escalation” in Conflict: The use of drone swarms in conflict zones is associated with the potential for unintended escalation, where errors in executing orders due to human intervention or malfunctioning technologies could significantly impact nuclear deterrence, security, and strategic stability in future wars. Developments in AI-powered drone swarm systems could lead states to delegate decision-making to these systems, resulting in numerous global threats and risks due to the current technical limitations of AI, such as system fragility and the difficulty of interpreting their decisions.
Difficulty in Preventing a “Drone Swarm Arms Race”: Despite the verbal agreement between the American and Chinese presidents in November last year to establish working groups on AI safety, this has not prioritized addressing the arms race associated with AI-powered drone swarms. With both countries rushing to develop advanced drone swarm technologies, and the lack of trust between them, there is unlikely to be an organized international effort to prevent a drone arms race, particularly concerning drone swarms. The United Nations has failed to play a significant role in this regard, having spent a decade attempting to enhance efforts to prevent the spread of drones, including restrictions such as banning civilian targeting or ethnic cleansing, but to no avail.
Ethical Concerns Over the Use of Drone Swarms: There are ethical concerns related to the use of drone swarms in warfare or targeting adversaries, especially regarding the potential use of indiscriminate methods or insufficient protection of civilians in conflict zones. The use of drones must comply with the Geneva Conventions, which regulate the protection of civilians. Some argue that clear protocols should be established to determine legal responsibility for the use of drones. According to some estimates, by 2023, about 19 countries had conducted airstrikes using drones in different parts of the world, a trend likely to increase in the near future.
The Issue of Enhancing Cybersecurity for Drone Swarms: One of the tasks of drone swarms involves gathering information about their surroundings, necessitating protocols to protect the collected and stored data, such as images, videos, or audio recordings of individuals, to prevent them from being hacked by adversaries. Additionally, it is crucial to ensure that drones are not hijacked by parties posing a threat to global security, such as militias, terrorist organizations, or separatist groups, given their potential use for unlawful purposes within and across regions.
In conclusion, the world is on the brink of a revolution led by AI in military affairs, particularly regarding advanced technology drone swarms. These swarms are capable of altering the nature of modern warfare, especially with reduced human intervention and the growing capabilities and tasks associated with drone swarm technologies. The anticipation of an arms race among major and medium powers to acquire drone swarms in the near future is also a significant concern.
