The Left’s Challenge: Why Is the Formation of the New French Government Delayed?
More than five weeks have passed since the second round of the French legislative elections, yet President Emmanuel Macron has not appointed a new Prime Minister to form the new government that will replace the resigned government of Gabriel Attal, which is still exercising its powers within the scope of caretaker duties. Despite the fact that the New Popular Union, affiliated with the left, which came in first in the elections in terms of seats (193 seats), has named its candidate for the position—Lucy Castet—Macron seems unenthusiastic about this choice and continues to consider various names without revealing his intentions.
Political Complexities
Internal complexities in France have delayed the appointment of a new Prime Minister following the recent legislative elections, raising concerns of a deepening political crisis. Here are the main reasons for this delay:
Complex Parliamentary Situation: Despite the government’s need to finalize the budget by the end of September to present it to the National Assembly, and the European Commission setting a September 20 deadline for France to submit its plan for financial correction, those close to the French president believe the time is not yet ripe to form a new government. They argue that more thought is needed due to the unprecedented parliamentary situation, with the current parliament divided into 11 parliamentary groups—a record number—split into three major blocs, none of which have an absolute majority and are competing against each other. As a result, Macron is not in a hurry but is also not trying to buy time.
Macron’s Efforts to Avoid Choosing a Controversial Candidate: Left-wing circles believe that the French president is trying to deny the results of the recent elections, which saw his bloc lose 73 seats. On July 11, Macron stated that no one had won in the early elections. These circles view this denial as an attempt to avoid appointing a left-wing figure as Prime Minister to steer clear of the scenario of cohabitation and maintain control of his term until it ends in 2027. Other opinions warn that this political deadlock could escalate into a systemic crisis, as prolonging the gap between the election results and the appointment of a new Prime Minister would violate the Constitution, especially Article 3 concerning the sovereignty of the people, Article 5 requiring the President to ensure state continuity, and Article 20 concerning the parliamentary system. Constitutionally, the argument that no potential government would have the confidence of parliament cannot be used to justify delaying the appointment.
Macron’s Attempt to Weaken Lucy Castet’s Chances: After Gabriel Attal’s resignation on July 16, Emmanuel Macron announced on July 23 that no new Prime Minister would be appointed before the end of the Olympics, a move dubbed the “Olympic truce.” Left-wing circles viewed this postponement as an evasion by Macron to avoid appointing Lucy Castet after betting on the left’s failure to agree on a joint candidate. Castet, whose selection was surprising as she was not a senior leader but rather the Director of Financial Affairs for the Paris Municipality, also tried to use this truce to conduct various meetings and trips to introduce herself and present her proposals to the public. After the Olympics ended, specifically on August 12, she sent a letter to parliamentarians, excluding far-right MPs, outlining the priorities of the government she seeks to lead, indicating her attempt to win over MPs outside the New Popular Union.
Betting on Divisions Within the Leftist Front: Many observers believe that Macron was betting on the leftist front’s lack of cohesion, hoping that delaying the appointment would lead to divisions within the front, similar to what happened with the previous leftist front after the events of “Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, 2023. Leaders of the “Unbowed France” party (LFI) have insisted on implementing the entire leftist front’s program, while some of its members realize that compromises with other parliamentary factions are necessary to achieve an absolute majority and pass legislation. This makes it difficult to implement the entire program, making it a potential starting point.
Allowing Space for Reconciliation Initiatives Among Political Forces: The resigned Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who now leads the “Together for the Republic” (the Macronist bloc), sent a letter on August 13, 2024, to MPs not affiliated with the far-right or far-left. In this letter, titled “A Work Pact for the French,” Attal detailed the priorities on which his party is willing to cooperate with other parties. Lucy Castet saw this letter as a rejection of the election results.
Laurent Marcangeli, leader of the Horizons parliamentary group, which is part of the pro-Macron alliance, also called for a meeting as soon as possible to discuss the stabilization of France’s political situation, excluding the National Rally and Unbowed France parties from the invitation. Left-wing circles believe that Macronist leaders are still searching for allies to form a majority around Macron, and that Macron cannot coexist with anyone but himself. Le Monde reported that after August 19, Macron plans to invite parliamentary group leaders to meet with him for further discussions.
Potential Scenarios
The potential scenarios for forming a new government in France can be summarized in four theoretical options:
Forming a Government by the Leftist Front: This government would have a relative majority of 193 seats (with an absolute majority being 289), led by Lucy Castet. However, Macron’s initial opposition presents a significant obstacle to this option. A factor that could improve the chances of this option is the “Unbowed France” party’s support for the government without joining it or taking ministerial seats. This government, which falls short of an absolute majority by about 100 seats, might delay implementing contentious measures in its program to avoid an immediate confidence vote, thereby avoiding its downfall. The main actions this leftist government intends to take include canceling pension reform and raising the minimum wage to 1,600 euros per month. The leftist front believes it can pass the budget in parliament, arguing that opposing political forces would not dare oppose raising the minimum wage. Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin on July 11, 2024, called on Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from the New Popular Union, as it came first in the elections, in respect of what he called the republican tradition.
Appointing a Right-Wing Figure to Form the Government: This government would also have a relative majority of 235 seats, based on an alliance between the Macronist bloc and the right-wing Republican party (LR), which is criticized by the left as a “coalition of the defeated.” The government would be led by Xavier Bertrand (the most frequently mentioned name), the President of the Hauts-de-France region and a seasoned right-wing leader praised by current Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin during a July 2024 interview on France 2. Bertrand benefits from his consistent past opposition to Macron, giving the impression of a form of cohabitation without policy changes, which is the only kind of cohabitation Macron might accept since both he and Bertrand lean towards the right ideologically. The main obstacle to this scenario comes from the right itself, where supporters of the de facto leader of the Republicans, Laurent Wauquiez, are reluctant to have their party appear as a spare wheel for Macronism with the presidential elections approaching in 2027. Although Wauquiez has made alliances with the Macronist bloc to secure key positions in the National Assembly, he announced in July 2024 that he would not enter into a coalition government with Emmanuel Macron.
Forming a Democratic-Socialist Coalition: This government would have a relative majority of 278 seats, close to an absolute majority, based on a Democratic-Socialist coalition between the center (the Macronist bloc) and the moderate left (Socialists, Greens, and Communists). The government would be led by a figure symbolically associated with the left, such as former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve during François Hollande’s presidency. The far-left “Unbowed France” party could easily denounce the rest of the leftist parties for betrayal by joining this government and withdrawing from the New Popular Union.
Creating a Grand Coalition Government Excluding Extremists: This is the only scenario among the theoretical options that could achieve an absolute majority, significantly exceeding it with 356 seats. It would include the Macronist bloc, the moderate left, and the Republicans, excluding only the two extremist parties (National Rally on the far-right and Unbowed France on the far-left). Forming this coalition would require finding a consensus figure to lead it, someone detached from the current political divisions. Notably, in a statement after the Olympics, Macron said in an interview with L’Équipe that the message sent by the French aligns closely with the Olympic spirit of working together, thanking Socialist Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo and right-wing President of the Île-de-France region Valérie Pécresse for their joint efforts in organizing the Olympics. He noted that these two women were his competitors in the 2022 presidential election, which did not prevent the three of them from working together during the Olympics, suggesting that “when we work together, nothing is insurmountable.”
In response to these remarks, French Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel urged Macron not to exploit the Olympics to overlook the results expressed in the recent elections, insisting that Macron needs to understand he has lost.
Conclusion
While left-wing forces in France are trying to portray Macron as abusing his role as the guarantor of the Constitution by ignoring the voices of the French people, the Élysée circles suggest that the aim of this delay is to search for the most stable government that accurately reflects the delicate balance within the National Assembly, to be led by an experienced and respected figure capable of engaging with everyone.
