The ongoing clashes between the Turkish-backed factions and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria do not seem to be diminishing in the near future. This situation may escalate the threats faced by the new Syrian administration. However, the potential repercussions of these confrontations extend beyond that; many trends are beginning to issue warnings about the impact of these hostilities on the control over extremist camps, especially Al-Hol camp located in Al-Hasakah province, which houses a significant number of women and children from terrorist organizations, particularly ISIS. Concerns heightened after the SDF security forces thwarted an escape attempt by families of ISIS members from within Al-Hol camp on January 18, 2025.
In this context, it is worth noting Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s call on January 2, 2025, for the repatriation of ISIS members in Syrian camps to their respective countries and to hand over the management of these camps to the Syrian government. Furthermore, Ankara emphasized on January 17, 2025, that in the event of a military operation against the SDF, it is possible for them to manage these prisons under international law and continue to hold prisoners there, raising numerous questions about the possible implications of the current confrontations in northeastern Syria on the security of extremist camps.
Alarming Developments
Several movements and developments are increasing doubts and fears regarding the impact of the ongoing confrontations between the SDF and Ankara on the security of detention camps for terrorist organization members in northeastern Syria. The most significant points include:
Escalating Disputes Between the SDF and the Syrian Defense Ministry: Despite the SDF’s announcement on January 9, 2025, about the importance of unity and the integrity of Syrian territory and its rejection of any secessionist projects threatening the country’s unity, tensions remain a prominent feature in their relationship. This reached an unprecedented level after the Syrian defense minister in the new administration, Marhaf Abu Qasra, rejected an SDF request on January 19, 2025, to retain a specific bloc within the Syrian armed forces, accusing SDF leader Mazloom Abdi of procrastination in addressing the matter.
Turkey’s Mobilization and Syrian Military Operations Against the SDF: Developments on the ground in northeastern Syria suggest a potential joint military operation between Turkey and the Syrian military operations administration, led by Ahmed al-Shar’i, against the SDF. This is evident from the Turkish army dispatching military equipment, armored vehicles, and ammunition from Suruç in Şanlıurfa province to the borders of Ain al-Arab (Kobani) on January 18, 2025. Additionally, the Syrian military operations administration has mobilized some of its forces towards SDF areas.
Increased Clashes Between Turkish-backed Factions and the SDF: Military confrontations between Turkish-backed Syrian National Army factions and the SDF have reached an unprecedented level, especially in eastern Aleppo and the Tishrin Dam axis and Karakouzq Bridge. This escalation has led the SDF to withdraw some of its forces responsible for guarding detention camps to participate in armed operations against Turkey and its allied factions.
ISIS’s Move to Rebuild Its Influence in Northern Syria: Numerous assessments raise concerns about the situation of detention camps for terrorist organization members in northern Syria, particularly those loyal to ISIS, which has managed to rebuild its influence in Syria by exploiting the political and security vacuum following the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024. The rapid and unexpected collapse of the regime has created a fertile environment for ISIS supporters to revive their hopes and activities inside the camps overseen by the SDF, following the seizure of weapons and equipment left behind by the Syrian army and its allied militias. Recently, some elements loyal to ISIS in Al-Hol camp have attempted collective and individual escape operations from the camp.
Possible Consequences
The ongoing confrontations in northeastern Syria may impose numerous repercussions on the detention centers for terrorist organization members and the SDF’s ability to maintain security within them. This can be outlined as follows:
Increased Burdens of Securing Detention Camps: The military conflicts between Turkish-backed factions and the SDF are likely to complicate security control over detention camps, reducing the SDF’s capacity to secure their perimeters, particularly since the current population in these camps is approximately 43,000 individuals, mostly in Al-Hol and Roj camps. Military operations launched by Turkish-backed factions since November 30, 2024, under the operation name “Dawn of Freedom” in northern Syria have put greater pressure on the camps, especially after the SDF was compelled to withdraw personnel assigned to guard these camps to engage in fighting against Turkish forces and their allied militias.
Strengthened Influence of Terrorist Organizations in Northern Syria: Various trends suggest that the military confrontations between Turkish-backed factions and the SDF will assist members of terrorist organizations within the detention camps in northern Syria, particularly ISIS, in regaining and reinforcing their control and influence in the region. The current reduction in camp security due to the military pressures faced by the SDF will likely expand the maneuvering margin for the detained elements, facilitating their repositioning within Syrian territory.
Increase in Escape Attempts from Camps: The current confrontations between the SDF and Turkish-backed factions, combined with Ankara’s threats of a joint military operation against the Kurdish autonomous administration, may lead to an increase in escape attempts from inside the camps, particularly Al-Hol, which is severely overcrowded. The frequency of these escape attempts has risen in recent times, despite the security measures implemented by the SDF, which have been somewhat affected by their involvement in ongoing armed conflicts with Turkish-backed Syrian militias. Local Kurdish estimates have indicated that Al-Hol and Roj camps have been witnessing near-daily attempts to smuggle ISIS families out since the fall of the Assad regime.
Awakening of Dormant Terrorist Cells: Dormant cells loyal to ISIS may exploit the prevailing security fluidity and the expanding military unrest in northern Syria while the SDF is preoccupied with repelling Turkish incursions, to reposition themselves operationally and regain their active momentum in Syria. Notably, the Syrian intelligence agency announced on January 11, 2025, that it thwarted an ISIS attempt to attack the “Sayyida Zainab Shrine” in the capital, Damascus.
A Favorable Environment
In conclusion, it can be said that the current confrontations in northeastern Syria will intensify the existing instability, potentially creating an environment conducive to the escape of terrorist organization members from the Kurdish-administered detention camps, thereby allowing ISIS to reorganize within the Syrian landscape.
