The term “war of attrition” has gained prominence in global politics in recent years, reflecting a return of international conflict between major powers after three decades of American dominance following the Cold War. Thus, headlines and articles discussing competition among major powers have become increasingly common, with the defining characteristic of our current era being how traditional and rising global powers inflict damage on each other without direct confrontations.
According to the International Encyclopedia of the First World War, a war of attrition is defined as: “the ongoing process of exhausting the enemy to force their physical collapse through continuous losses in personnel, equipment, and supplies, or by wearing them down to the point where they become susceptible to collapse and the destruction of their will to fight.” Discussions about “wars of attrition” are often accompanied by references to “proxy wars”; where militarily and economically stronger states use political systems and armed militias to act on their behalf, aiming to maximize the attrition of other powers.
The Ukrainian war has pushed the discourse around proxy wars and wars of attrition to a new level due to the indirect confrontation between the United States and Russia. The Israeli war on Gaza has reinforced the idea of the world moving towards a new Cold War. In this scenario, regional conflicts are exploited either to settle scores between major powers or to weaken a dominant force on the international stage.
Former U.S. President Eisenhower described proxy wars as “the cheapest insurance in the world.” According to former Pakistani President Zia-ul-Haq, these wars are necessary and desirable to keep “the pot boiling.” From this perspective, proxy wars represent a logical alternative for states to advance their strategic goals without direct, costly, and bloody engagement.
A 2023 study by the RAND Corporation, using both quantitative and qualitative methods, concluded that proxy wars are likely to increase in the near future due to the fierce competition between major powers, particularly the United States and China. Although the study recommended that Washington avoid entering new proxy wars as much as possible to prevent Cold War scenarios, all indicators suggest that the U.S. is heading towards increased involvement in proxy wars and wars of attrition. This shift is particularly evident in the protracted conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, where both Ukraine and Israel hold significant importance for U.S. military strategy.
Journalist David Sanger, in his book “The New Cold Wars,” discusses the shift in expectations regarding Russia and China’s integration with the West. His book states: “We were convinced that despite all the shocks, clashes, and chaos the world has witnessed in the 21st century, it would reorder itself in the way we had hoped for a long time. The path to achieving this envisioned order was the global assumption that Russia, as a waning power, and China, as a rising power, would integrate with the West, each in its own way.” It was said that both Russia and China had a significant national interest in maintaining the flow of their products, profits, and financial investments, even if this was with their geopolitical rivals, with the economy eventually triumphing over nationalism and regional ambition. However, recent events have contradicted these expectations, with heightened tensions between China and Russia on one side and the Western camp led by the United States on the other. These tensions stem from economic ambitions and the fading belief in globalization’s ability to contain international conflicts.
The Rise of Armed Proxies
Experts today are concerned about significant changes in international competition and the use of proxy wars to settle disputes with adversaries. This recalls past events such as U.S. support for Afghan mujahideen during the Cold War in the 1970s or the Soviet Union’s use of Cuban proxies in Angola in 1974. The current danger lies in the presence of highly trained armed groups spread across several countries, especially in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. These groups can be used in various ways, including creating cross-border loyalties on a wider and deeper scale than in the past. This makes it possible to recruit non-state actors to participate in conflicts in unprecedented ways.
In the past, private armies were not a realistic option, as the use of force was primarily limited to states or government forces. The Cold War then shifted this dynamic. By the end of 1991, there was an abundance of individuals with exceptional military experience, leading to the emergence of private armies and military security companies. Today, these entities are widespread around the world; over 150 private security companies participated in activities worth $223 billion in 2022, and the mercenary market reached $100 billion. Predictions indicate that the private security market will double by 2030.
After waking from the illusion of a unipolar world, U.S. military institutions shifted their focus towards studying the nature of future wars between two major powers: the United States and China. Researchers note that such wars are usually not short and sharp but rather long and exhausting wars of attrition that tend to expand geographically, dragging other regions into conflict. Although the conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan was brief and containable, it is an exception; this scenario cannot be generalized based on a single historical precedent.
The world is currently experiencing a new phase of conflict among major powers competing for political, economic, military, scientific, technological dominance, and wealth accumulation. While the rules of the game have not changed significantly, the primary means of attrition remains indirect military confrontations and exploiting regional conflicts and small wars to weaken adversaries. All signs indicate that this conflict will intensify in the coming decades.
