An American intelligence center has warned that water scarcity is becoming a potential weapon and driver of conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa.
In its assessment of the region’s water situation, the American strategic and security studies center “Stratfor” predicts that the intensifying water scarcity—caused by years of mismanagement, security gaps, and population growth—will increasingly make water a contested resource. This will elevate the risk of social unrest, violence from non-governmental armed groups, and conflicts between nations.
The report highlights that “water stress” in the Middle East and North Africa has become a more acute threat to the stability of each country and the region as a whole. This is happening amid ongoing struggles over this increasingly scarce and vital resource and attempts to control it.
Stratfor blames the countries of the Middle East and North Africa for what it describes as their poor management of water resources over the decades, a factor that has exacerbated water shortages in a region characterized by a hot and dry climate.
Water Stress
According to the intelligence assessment, rapid population growth in many countries has worsened the situation by increasing demand for already limited freshwater. Against this backdrop, access to water supplies has become a driving factor in conflicts between nations and non-governmental actors in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as a catalyst for social unrest.
Stratfor attributes water stress to the disparity between countries’ water resources and their demand for them. In nations suffering from extreme water scarcity, such as those in the Middle East and North Africa, nearly all available water resources are exploited, making these countries vulnerable to water shortages in the event of any changes in supply or demand.
Despite the overall scarcity of water in the region, the fragility of water conditions varies from country to country. For example, some nations have rivers flowing through their territories, which gives them an advantage over others that lack access to such surface water systems, according to the assessment.
A report from the World Resources Institute in August 2023 listed Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Lebanon as the most water-stressed countries globally. This is largely due to a lack of water supplies for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use. The report also detailed that the Middle East and North Africa is the most water-stressed region in the world, with 83% of its population affected by excessive water use.
A Tool of Repression
The American center warns that countries with surplus water supplies may use this vital resource as a “tool of repression” to deter potential hostilities against them in the event of disputes or conflicts, posing a threat to the stability of water-stressed nations.
As water becomes increasingly scarce while remaining necessary for various agricultural, industrial, and domestic activities, water-scarce nations are likely to seek agreements with countries that have more water supplies.
However, Stratfor’s assessment suggests that geographical, infrastructural, and financial constraints will limit many countries’ ability to make such agreements. Additionally, given the frequent diplomatic disagreements or open conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, “water repression” is likely to become an increasingly strategic tool for exerting power and influence over other water-scarce nations.
For naturally water-rich countries like Turkey, or those with technological capabilities (like Israel with desalination), this strategy—according to the assessment—will involve controlling the flow and access to water, often exacerbating tensions and conflicts in an already unstable region.
Jordan and Israel
Stratfor cited the 2021 water agreement between Israel and Jordan as an example, under which Jordan receives water from Israel in exchange for providing energy to Tel Aviv. While the agreement facilitates cooperation, it also exposes power imbalances, as Israel controls the water sources, putting Jordan at risk during periods of drought.
Another example of water resources affecting relations between nations is the conflict between Turkey on one side and Iraq and Syria on the other. The intelligence center views Turkey’s control over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, affecting downstream countries (Iraq and Syria), as a recent example of using water as a “tool of repression.”
In countries like Iran, Iraq, Algeria, and Bahrain, inadequate water management has already sparked public unrest, highlighting the potential severity of the issue in the coming years, according to the same report.
Weak Governance Structures
The report further argues that weak governance structures across the region worsen these problems. Corruption, inefficiency, and a lack of investment in water infrastructure hinder the effective management of this vital resource.
In Egypt, the government’s policies—prioritizing water-intensive crops like rice—have strained the limited water supplies from the Nile River, despite growing concerns about Ethiopia’s filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The center noted that water shortages in Algeria and Iran have already triggered waves of public protests in both countries. It warned that the growing water scarcity in the region is likely to create an environment where non-governmental armed groups may control vital water resources to gain influence.
