The world’s awareness of climate issues did not begin with the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Several foundational milestones preceded it. At the 1972 Stockholm Conference, the United Nations recognized for the first time that the environment was a global issue that transcended economic development. It adopted the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.” Later, the 1987 Brundtland Commission’s report Our Common Future introduced the concept of sustainable development — a balance between economic growth and the protection of natural resources. In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established to provide the scientific basis for climate policymaking, paving the way for the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in Rio, which marked the institutional beginning of international climate cooperation.
More than three decades after the launch of global climate negotiations at the Rio Earth Summit, the world now stands at a critical crossroads. In November 2025, attention will turn to Belém, Brazil, where the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) will convene amid mounting geopolitical and economic crises and declining international commitment to climate action. Belém thus represents a defining moment — a test of the global community’s willingness to move from promises to implementation, and a measure of its ability to restore confidence in the Paris Agreement (2015), which now risks stagnation.
As challenges intensify, the Global South emerges as a new and capable actor able to redirect the trajectory of climate justice. COP30 in Belém comes at a pivotal moment in climate diplomacy — the beginning of a decisive decade (2025–2035) that will determine whether the goals of the Paris Agreement remain achievable or become deferred promises. The first Global Stocktake in 2023, presented at COP28 in Dubai, revealed that the world is far off track from the 1.5°C target and that the gap between pledges and action continues to widen. Therefore, Belém’s importance lies not only in being an environmental conference but also in serving as a political test for the multilateral system — and as a chance to rebuild trust between the Global North and South after years of division over finance, responsibility, and justice.
From Rio to Baku
The Rio Summit established the legal foundation for international climate action through the UNFCCC, which recognized countries’ shared responsibility for emissions but imposed no binding targets. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol introduced the first commitments to cut emissions by 5.2% below 1990 levels for the period 2008–2012, but U.S. withdrawal and its refusal to join without the participation of emerging economies undermined its effectiveness.
The top-down system of Kyoto eventually gave way to a more flexible, bottom-up model under the 2015 Paris Agreement, based on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Since then, tangible progress has been made in several key areas:
- Climate Finance: Funding flows for mitigation and adaptation projects have increased, both through multilateral channels such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and through bilateral and regional initiatives. Some international financial institutions have begun integrating climate considerations into their investment policies.
- Renewable Energy Diversification: Global investments in solar, wind, and green hydrogen have expanded significantly, with many countries achieving breakthroughs in installed renewable capacity. This has driven down electricity generation costs relative to fossil fuels.
- Emission Policies: Several countries have implemented carbon pricing systems or national emissions trading schemes (ETS), including the EU, China, and Canada — encouraging a shift toward cleaner technologies.
- Adaptation and Resilience: National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) have proliferated, alongside efforts to protect coastal and agricultural ecosystems and improve early warning systems for climate disasters.
- Non-State Actor Engagement: The private sector and civil society have played growing roles in implementing independent green initiatives, strengthening local and regional climate momentum.
However, this flexibility that encouraged broad participation has also produced a downside: weak ambition and lack of accountability. The IPCC and the 2023 Global Stocktake presented at COP28 warned that the world remains far from meeting the 1.5°C target. Based on scientific data from 2021–2023, the assessment found that current policies will lead to a global temperature rise between 2.4°C and 2.6°C. It called for a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 (relative to 2019 levels), a tripling of renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, and a phasedown of unabated fossil fuels. The report also stressed the importance of financing developing countries and upholding the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” to rebalance the burden of the climate transition.
COP30 in Belém will be the first real test of translating this assessment into tangible results — after years of summits that recycled commitments without delivering concrete outcomes.
Active Arab Milestones
Despite unprecedented political and security challenges, the Arab region has regained visibility in global climate negotiations. The 2022 Sharm El-Sheikh Summit (COP27) restored focus on climate justice, successfully placing “loss and damage” formally on the agenda for the first time and establishing a fund to compensate the countries most affected by climate disasters. This was a landmark acknowledgment of industrial nations’ historical responsibility — but also highlighted the difficulty of agreeing on implementation mechanisms.
A year later, Dubai hosted COP28, which produced what became known as the “UAE Consensus,” hailed as the most significant moment since Paris. The summit explicitly called for a fair and equitable transition away from fossil fuels and set the ambitious goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. It also operationalized the Loss and Damage Fund with initial pledges exceeding $790 million and launched broad initiatives to reduce emissions in agriculture and heavy industry.
These developments gradually restored trust in the negotiation process and demonstrated the Arab region’s ability to serve as a bridge between North and South, leveraging its geographic position and energy resources. This makes “the Belém moment” an opportunity for Arab states to adopt an integrated regional vision focusing on updating national contributions, expanding renewable energy and water investments, and strengthening resilience against extreme climate events threatening food and water security. The region thus holds a unique opportunity to act as a bridge between the developed and developing worlds.
A Delayed Roadmap
The 2024 Baku Summit (COP29) was a key turning point regarding the climate finance gap. It introduced the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), which raised commitments from $100 billion to $300 billion annually by 2035. It also launched the “Roadmap from Baku to Belém” initiative, aiming to mobilize $1.3 trillion per year from public and private sources to support mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.
However, progress was described as an “unfinished achievement,” as core issues of transparency, governance, and burden-sharing remained unresolved. While some parties emphasized the role of private finance, developing nations insisted on direct, unconditional funding that does not increase debt burdens. Disagreements persisted over Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement — aligning financial flows with low-emission development pathways — leaving Belém as the anticipated summit expected to turn pledges into measurable, actionable mechanisms.
At the same time, climate negotiations have moved beyond science and the environment to become arenas of geopolitical competition. Clean energy, green technologies, and carbon markets have emerged as new instruments of power among major nations. This was evident in the repeated U.S. withdrawals from the Paris Agreement — most recently in January 2025 under the renewed Trump administration — delivering a blow to the multilateral climate system and weakening trust between North and South.
Meanwhile, climate funding from wealthy nations such as the UK, France, and Germany has declined, deepening the financial gap that hinders developing countries from implementing their national contributions. The European Union has sought to lead through its “Green Deal” and its goal of a carbon-neutral economy by 2050, yet energy crises and wars have forced many states to revert to fossil fuels to secure economic stability.
Thus, climate diplomacy now reflects a tension between those who possess technology and finance and those who hold natural resources — making it increasingly difficult to overcome geopolitical polarization and build equitable North–South partnerships.
Conclusion
COP30 in Belém carries special symbolism as it will be held in the heart of the Amazon — the planet’s largest natural carbon reservoir. The conference will introduce the concept of Global Mutirão, inspired by Brazilian culture, meaning collective effort — embodying the spirit of cooperation among peoples and governments.
Yet Belém’s challenges are as great as its ambitions. Unresolved issues from the Baku summit — such as adaptation finance, technology transfer, and climate justice — remain on the table, alongside economic crises threatening to limit developing nations’ participation. Still, if Brazil succeeds in forging realistic consensus between North and South, Belém could become a historic turning point — marking the beginning of a “post-negotiation phase,” in which global climate action finally shifts from promises to implementation.
