Religion is expected to play a significant role in voters’ choices during the 2024 presidential elections, much like in previous years. While overall estimates indicate a decline in the percentage of Americans who identify with a religion by 11 percentage points, religious discourse still asserts a strong presence in American political life, especially during election campaigns.
Since the 1960s, the relationship between religion, race, and voting patterns in the United States has become so intertwined that pollsters and election analysts can predict voting behavior with great accuracy based on a person’s religious and racial identity.
The Religious Landscape
There are several notable features that define the religious blocs in the United States, and they can be understood as follows:
1. Multiple Divisions and Differences:
Dividing Americans based on their religious identity is not as simple as it may seem. American religious identity is often described in academic literature as resembling a “Russian nesting doll,” known as “Matryoshka,” where opening one doll reveals more inside. Applied to U.S. religious blocs, it’s clear that the broad category of Protestants is divided into hundreds of different denominations, many of which can be further subdivided into smaller groups. This complexity intensifies when considering the impact of religious identity on politics. Often, religious identity needs to be linked to two additional variables: racial affiliation and the level of religious commitment that individuals report.
2. The Dominance of White Identity and Christian Nationalism:
The prevailing discourse in the U.S. asserts that the white race enjoys divine favor, with a strong connection between religious claims and white supremacy within some overtly racist organizations in mainstream politics. There are three key observations highlighting the dominance of white racial supremacy alongside Christian nationalism:
A. Right-wing Christian movements, such as the “Christian Identity Movement,” a religious movement in North America that gained significant popularity since the 1980s, claim that non-white people, who they label as “mud races,” were created by God to be of lower status. They assert that the divine covenant between God and humanity, as outlined in the Bible, only applies to those of European descent (white people).
B. Evangelical leaders often fail to condemn or distance themselves from figures with clear ties to white supremacy.
C. Racial religious bigotry is evident in the public discourse of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. When given the chance to condemn white supremacists during the first presidential debate in 2020, Trump told them to “stand back and stand by.” Numerous signs link Trump to white supremacists, including appointing Steve Bannon, a known white nationalist, as his “chief executive officer” during his 2016 presidential campaign.
3. Religious Influence on Campaign Rhetoric:
For decades, many political leaders in the U.S. have spoken of a divine mandate, claiming that God guided the establishment of the country’s democratic institutions, from popular elections to the balance of powers in the Constitution. Religion is thus employed by candidates from both the Republican and Democratic parties as a rhetorical tool to attract the American public. This can be seen in the following examples:
A. On the Republican side, Trump recently stated that recent attempts on his life were thwarted by God’s power. In a campaign speech in New York in September 2024, he promised to “bring religion back” to the United States. In June, during a conference for evangelical Christians, Trump expressed his support for displaying the Ten Commandments in schools.
B. On the Democratic side, while Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate and current Vice President, does not emphasize religious rhetoric in her speeches, the media often portrays her as the ideal representative of America’s multi-faith fabric. This resonates with the fact that fewer young Americans today inherit a single religious tradition from their parents. Harris’s campaign highlights that she attends a Black Baptist church, the Third Baptist Church in San Francisco, led by Reverend Amos Brown, while her husband is affiliated with a Reformed congregation. Moreover, according to The Atlantic, her campaign promoted the story that, upon learning of President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 race, Harris called her pastor to ask for prayers, indicating her Christian faith. Traditionally, Harris is seen as relying heavily on attracting Christian African Americans, as the path to securing the Black vote often runs through Black churches similar to hers, which embrace an ecumenical message of the “beloved community” and civil rights.
4. Religion as a Factor in Party Success:
When comparing religious adherence rates in 2020 with those in 2010, an intriguing pattern emerges in the United States, highlighting the political significance of the evolving religious landscape. Democrats are making electoral gains in areas where religion is in decline, particularly in counties with no religious organizations. Meanwhile, Republicans increase their share of votes in counties where places of worship are gaining new members.
Positive indicators for Democrats are evident in the Rust Belt states in the northern U.S., most of which are swing states. Estimates suggest that states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have become less religious than they were just a decade ago, which is good news for the Democratic Party.
5. Diverging Opinions on Religion’s Role in Politics:
Estimates suggest that voters, whether Democrats or Republicans, hold vastly different views on the role religion should play in government and U.S. politics. Some support an expanded governmental role in endorsing religion, while others argue for keeping religion separate from governmental policies.
One poll indicates that 71% of Americans prefer separating religion from politics. In contrast, 69% of Trump supporters believe the Bible should play a significant role in shaping U.S. laws, with 36% saying it should have a substantial influence. On the other hand, 69% of Democrats say the Bible should have little to no influence on U.S. laws, with 53% asserting that it should have no influence at all.
Expected Voting Trends:
There is a degree of overlap in the initial polling results regarding the voting tendencies of religious blocs in the upcoming elections. Some indicators lean in favor of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, while others support the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. These trends can be summarized as follows:
1. Donald Trump:
A. Continued support from White Christians and major religious groups:
A recent Pew Research Center poll conducted between August 26 and September 2, 2024, revealed that a majority of registered voters from three major religious groups stated they would vote for Trump or lean towards doing so. According to the poll, 82% of white evangelical Protestants, 61% of white Catholics, and 58% of white non-evangelical Protestants plan to vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Moreover, the estimates suggest that Trump’s support is stronger among white evangelicals and white Catholics who attend church regularly, compared to those who do not (63% of regular churchgoers versus 55% of non-regular attendees). However, no similar variations in support for Harris were observed among Black Protestants.
B. Punitive voting from Arabs and Muslims in favor of Trump:
Although Biden won the votes of Arabs and Muslims in 2020, receiving between 64% and 84% support according to post-election polls, current polls suggest that Arab voters may shift toward punitive voting due to their anger over the Biden administration’s unconditional support for Israel during the Gaza conflict.
A poll conducted two weeks before the Harris-Trump debate showed that Arab and Muslim American voters are shifting from supporting Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris to supporting Green Party candidate Jill Stein. The poll indicated that about 40% of Muslim voters in Michigan, home to a large Arab-American community, supported Stein, while only 12% backed Harris.
The same poll also showed that Stein leads Harris among Muslims in the swing states of Arizona and Wisconsin, both of which have significant Muslim populations. In 2020, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in these states.
2. Kamala Harris:
A. Support from Black Christians and minority groups:
Estimates suggest that Black religious blocs, as well as non-mainstream religious groups, support Kamala Harris. For example, a Pew Research Center poll conducted from August 26 to September 2, 2024, found that 86% of Black Protestants, 65% of Hispanic Catholics, and 65% of Jewish voters intend to vote for Harris. When compared to Biden’s support before he withdrew from the race, these numbers show that Harris enjoys stronger backing. For instance, Biden had the support of 77% of Black Protestants and 49% of Hispanic Catholics according to previous polls.
B. Support from American Jews:
Another poll by the Jewish Democratic Council of America showed that about 68% of Jewish voters plan to vote for Harris, while 25% of the American Jewish bloc intends to vote for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Despite Republicans’ efforts to capitalize on the October 7 Hamas attack and the Israeli war on Gaza— including Trump’s warning that Israel would cease to exist if Harris won—polls continue to show that seven out of ten American Jews align with the Democratic Party. Regardless of the war in Gaza, American Jews remain largely “liberal and in favor of the Democratic Party” because, in their view, it is the party closest to secularism, individual freedoms, and racial equality. In contrast, they perceive the Republican Party as having certain tendencies toward racism and Christian nationalism.
Interestingly, another poll found that about 91% of Jewish voters are concerned about anti-Semitism in the United States, and Jewish voters trust Kamala Harris over Donald Trump to combat anti-Semitism by a margin of nearly three to one (60% versus 23%).
C. The electoral significance of the non-religious:
Polls indicate that most atheists and agnostics (agnostics are individuals who neither believe nor disbelieve in a deity) sympathize with or lean toward the Democratic Party, supporting Harris in the current campaign. Initial estimates suggest that around 85% of atheists and 78% of agnostics support Harris in the U.S. presidential race.
In this context, observers agree that it would be a mistake to overlook this category of voters, especially given a Pew Research Center study showing that the proportion of non-religious individuals now makes up about 28% of the total adult population in the United States. This percentage is approaching that of major Christian denominations, including Catholics and evangelical Protestants. Several observations underscore the importance of the non-religious to Harris’s campaign:
- Most non-religious individuals are young; studies estimate that 69% of them are under the age of 50, making them an important part of the youth voting base.
- Atheists and agnostics within the non-religious demographic are more likely to participate in political and civic activities, with some being less satisfied with their local communities. Therefore, convincing them to vote could mean Harris’s campaign succeeds in attracting those who feel alienated or isolated or, at the very least, those dissatisfied with American societal values.
In conclusion, religious motivations and sectarian affiliations serve as hidden drivers in shaping the voting landscape for the presidential race. Thus, they cannot be considered secondary factors. Religion continues to play a significant role in shaping voter preferences, which are now particularly affected by an unprecedented polarization between Republicans and Democrats. The problem is that this divide is not only about political disagreements but also reflects a widening gap concerning American values. While Republicans push for a return to traditional American values and the revival of religious principles, including promoting Christian nationalism and white supremacy, Democrats fear the dominance of white supremacy and believe in the importance of racial and sectarian diversity as a driving force for the United States’ progress, alongside promoting secularism, globalization, and openness to others.
