The U.S.-China relationship has been characterized by competition since the first administration of elected President Donald Trump (2017-2021), set against the backdrop of great power rivalry influencing U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region. The perception arose that Beijing, with its growing economic, military, and technological strength, poses a challenge to the United States. Consequently, Trump adopted an approach aimed at confronting China across various domains, including trade, technology, geopolitics, and ideology.
Trump’s four years in the White House were marked by trade disputes, technological competition, and geopolitical tensions governed by his “America First” vision. This led to a significant recalibration of relations between the U.S. and China. The trade war initiated by Trump’s first administration against China involved imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices, shaping the nature of U.S.-China relations. The economic confrontation extended beyond mere trade issues and accusations against China for American job theft, encompassing concerns regarding Chinese actions related to intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, and restrictions on American access to Chinese markets. Tensions and competition further escalated with the COVID-19 pandemic, as Trump repeatedly accused China at the beginning of 2020 of being the source of the virus, focusing on the virology lab in Wuhan.
Prominent Trends
Several potential trends could shape U.S.-China relations following Trump’s electoral victory, which can be addressed as follows:
Harsh U.S. Economic and Trade Policies Against China: Trump’s rhetoric during his first presidency and his campaign for 2024 suggests a return to aggressive economic policies toward China. He emphasizes that strong action against Beijing is essential to protect American workers and reduce the substantial trade deficit with China. He has expressed his intention to double the tariffs imposed during his first administration on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods if re-elected. The elected president calls for revoking the “Most Favored Nation” status granted to China when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, allowing the U.S. to impose discriminatory tariffs on China, representing a significant shift in trade relations. He also plans to implement a four-year plan to reduce imports of essential goods from China by imposing tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports. Such tariffs would significantly impact China’s unstable economy, currently suffering from high unemployment rates and a real estate downturn along with government debt. Forecasts indicate that a rise in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% could lead to a halving of China’s expected economic growth. Trump’s aim in raising U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports is to compel the Chinese government to return to the negotiating table, similar to the tactic used by his first administration. The imposition of tariffs on over
The U.S. imposed tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese products, which led Beijing to negotiate with Washington and sign a trade deal in 2020. In this deal, China pledged to improve intellectual property rights and purchase an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods. However, Beijing is likely to respond to aggressive U.S. trade measures with its own retaliatory actions, further escalating the trade conflict between the two countries.
Intensifying U.S.-China Technological Competition: Technological competition between the U.S. and China significantly intensified during Trump’s first term. His administration condemned China’s state-driven industrial policy aimed at making China a global leader in advanced technology. It imposed restrictions on exporting semiconductors and chip-manufacturing equipment to prevent China from acquiring these technologies and pressured U.S. allies globally to avoid dealings with Chinese companies, especially Huawei, which was setting up fifth-generation networks in several of those countries. This was intended to maintain U.S. technological superiority and address American national security concerns. The technological rivalry between the U.S. and China is expected to escalate during Trump’s second administration, with continued restrictions on exporting advanced artificial intelligence chips to China anticipated. The U.S. may also aim to further limit China’s ability to produce advanced chips using American and Western technology, while enhancing domestic manufacturing by easing regulatory burdens imposed by the Biden administration to foster a more conducive environment for innovation and faster progress in fields like artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
Uncertainty About the Future of U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Trump’s election in 2016 angered China when he received a congratulatory call in December 2016 from then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, as no U.S. president had spoken directly to a Taiwanese leader since Washington and Beijing established relations in 1979. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs of 150% to 200% on Chinese goods if China were to invade Taiwan, which Beijing views as part of its territory. Simultaneously, Trump criticized Taiwan’s dominance in the global semiconductor industry, accusing it of “stealing” chip technology from the U.S. This could lead to economic pressure on Taiwan if the administration were to impose tariffs or other measures targeting Taiwan’s technology sector. Trump has suggested that Taiwan should pay for U.S. protection, potentially leading to calls for increased defense spending by Taiwan, putting a strain on its budget and possibly altering the dynamics of U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. The uncertainty regarding the elected president’s stance on Taiwan may lead to misunderstandings of Trump’s statements by both Taiwan and China, which could result in policy changes by both. This might either deter Chinese actions against Taiwan or risk escalating Chinese measures to prevent Taiwan’s independence.
Building on Personal Relationships Between Trump and Chinese President Xi: Despite intense competition between the U.S. and China during Donald Trump’s first term, the elected president has emphasized his personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping as a deterrent to conflict over Taiwan. Trump noted in an October interview with the Wall Street Journal that he would not need to resort to military force to prevent a Chinese blockade of Taiwan because Xi respects him. During his campaign, Trump spoke about his personal rapport with the Chinese president, which largely developed during his first term but was strained by trade disputes and the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. This approach could lead to unpredictable outcomes due to its heavy reliance on personal dynamics rather than established diplomatic protocols.
Decline in U.S.-China Cooperation on Climate Change Issues: The elected president’s stance on climate change—most notably his outright dismissal of global warming as a “hoax,” criticism of efforts to address it, commitment to boost fossil fuel production, particularly oil and gas, dismantling federal initiatives aimed at reducing emissions, and withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement during his first term—will likely impact cooperation between the U.S. and China on environmental issues, which had been central to collaboration between Washington and Beijing during the Biden administration.
Focus on China as a Strategic Competitor and Adversary of the U.S.: The elected president’s administration is expected to continue viewing China as a strategic competitor and a potential adversary, focusing on countering Chinese influence globally and in Asia through the adoption of more aggressive strategies to confront Chinese initiatives, such as the “Belt and Road” and China’s economic diplomacy. Increased U.S. efforts to strengthen alliances and partnerships in regions like the Indo-Pacific are also anticipated, aiming to balance China’s expanding influence.
Maintaining Communication with China to Manage Competition: Although intense competition between the U.S. and China is expected during Donald Trump’s second term, the elected Republican president is likely to seek to maintain communication channels with Beijing to manage competition and avoid miscalculations that could escalate U.S.-China rivalry into military conflict, especially with President Xi Jinping’s assertion of the need for both nations to “find a way to coexist” in his congratulatory message to the elected president Trump. This indicates that China is open to maintaining dialogue and cooperation with the U.S., even amidst strained relations.
Opportunity for China
Despite the expectation of heightened tensions in U.S.-China relations during President Donald Trump’s second administration, resulting from increased economic and technological competition between Washington and Beijing, the elected president’s policies in the Indo-Pacific and internationally could present an opportunity for Beijing. Trump’s “America First” doctrine may lead to a reassessment of U.S. commitments in Asia, potentially altering the balance of power on the continent and creating opportunities for China to expand its influence. Trump’s skepticism toward multilateral international institutions could create a governance vacuum that may allow Beijing to play a more prominent role in shaping international standards and institutions.
