Following President Donald Trump’s victory for a second term, significant changes are anticipated within U.S. intelligence agencies that could reshape their structure and influence their policies and performance. Throughout his first term, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of certain intelligence agencies and frequently used the term “deep state,” referring to these agencies’ efforts to limit his authority, which led to recurring conflicts between the White House and these agencies.
According to initial assessments, the strained relationship between Trump and intelligence agencies is expected to escalate during his second term, as he paves the way for wide-ranging changes that involve comprehensive restructuring. These plans and goals were outlined during his campaign and in recommendations from conservative think tanks, such as the “2025 Project,” which seeks to reorganize the U.S. government according to his vision.
Anticipated Transformations
Several transformations are expected within intelligence agencies under Trump’s presidency, which can be summarized as follows:
Increasing the Powers of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI): With the onset of his second term, Trump is expected to support the “2025 Project,” even if he has distanced himself from it in earlier statements, particularly regarding bolstering the role of the DNI as the direct link to the White House, granting this position greater authority over the 18 other intelligence agencies.
In this context, figures such as “Dustin Carmack,” who significantly contributed to the formulation of this plan, might play a role in enhancing the director’s authority. There is also the possibility of reappointing “John Ratcliffe,” who previously held this position, to support Trump’s desire to control intelligence information and steer it in line with his political objectives.
Possibility of an Intelligence Position Purge Campaign: As he begins his second term, Trump appears determined to implement an extensive “purge” campaign targeting senior positions within U.S. intelligence agencies. He aims to remove individuals he perceives as opposing or disloyal to his policies and goals. This campaign responds to Trump’s desire to undermine what he views as a “deep state” working against him and includes a list of security and intelligence leaders he considers obstacles to implementing his policies during his first term.
Among those targeted in this campaign are prominent figures such as “Christopher Wray,” the FBI director; Trump will rely on support from within the White House and Republican members of Congress to oust him. The campaign will also target several senior leaders in the CIA and the NSA, including current CIA Director “William Burns.” Additionally, the purge will focus on some mid-level positions believed to support what Trump calls “woke culture.” Reports suggest that Trump aims to cleanse the agencies from any political influences deemed inappropriate, such as supporting diversity and inclusion policies or focusing on climate change issues within intelligence; he considers these secondary issues that distract from national security. In this context, “Dustin Carmack,” Trump’s intelligence advisor, previously emphasized the importance of removing liberal influences within intelligence agencies, describing these moves as necessary to enhance pure and objective analysis.
Potential Restructuring of the CIA’s Role: Trump’s political agenda may involve diminishing the CIA’s influence in favor of enhancing the authority of the DNI. William Burns, the current CIA director, may be pushed aside, with an alternative being appointed who aligns more closely with Trump’s inclinations. Potential candidates to replace Burns could include individuals tied to Trump’s former administration, such as “Chris Stewart,” a former Congressman from Utah, “Mike Pompeo,” who previously served as CIA director and Secretary of State, “Richard Grenell,” former Acting DNI, and “Kash Patel,” who worked on the National Security Council and as a Defense Department advisor, as well as former ambassador “Peter Hoekstra” and Congressman “Steve Bannon,” known for his influence in far-right circles close to Trump.
Confronting Internal Opposition in the White House Regarding Intelligence Changes: Trump’s second term is likely to begin amid ongoing internal strife between the White House and intelligence agencies; many senior officials fear that security agencies could become purely political tools. Therefore, Trump is expected to confront potential opposition within his close circle in the White House to attempts to exert influence over intelligence agencies, a move that may shock some of his close associates.
Reforms in Administrative Affairs and Organizational Structure: Should he win, Trump may initiate radical administrative reforms aimed at reducing bureaucracy within intelligence agencies. He plans to achieve this by relying on prominent conservative figures such as Marco Rubio, Vice Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, known for advocating for the restructuring of security agencies. These reforms aim to align intelligence agencies more with conservative ideals, including reevaluating current diversity policies and implementing hiring standards that reflect the administration’s ideological leanings.
These adjustments are also likely to include scaling back training programs focused on social justice and inclusivity, with a shift towards enhancing efficiency and professional performance aligned with national security priorities. Resources may be redirected towards programs that address external threats in line with the administration’s foreign policy priorities while minimizing involvement in issues deemed inappropriate by the administration.
Emphasis on Enhancing Intelligence Technological Capabilities: During his second term, Trump is expected to make technology a central focus for intelligence agencies, particularly in light of rising threats from China. Trump seeks to advance these agencies’ technological capabilities to prepare them for modern challenges, such as cyberattacks and digital espionage. It’s anticipated that Trump will direct U.S. intelligence to leverage artificial intelligence, big data analytics, and develop modern surveillance tools to elevate the efficiency of intelligence gathering related to Chinese activities.
Concurrently, Trump aims to reduce dependence on Chinese technology and prevent major corporations from collaborating with China in strategic fields. Individuals like “Peter Thiel” are expected to play significant roles in supporting this approach, focusing on fortifying American supply chains against Chinese influences, especially concerning semiconductors and artificial intelligence technologies. Mike Pompeo may also become a key advisory figure in this endeavor due to his experience and strong opposition to Chinese influence. Additionally, Trump may appoint prominent figures in the technology domain, such as David Burns, to support these plans within intelligence agencies.
Applying Pressure to Change Culture Within Intelligence Agencies: Trump is likely to exert considerable pressure to alter the internal culture of intelligence agencies, particularly focusing on reviewing programs pertaining to “diversity and inclusion” policies, which he sees as incompatible with his vision for a more homogeneous intelligence landscape aligned with the administration’s goals. Significant potential advisors in this initiative include former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, who advocates for shifting focus from diversity to “internal unity,” thereby enhancing employee loyalty and directly serving the administration’s agenda.
This approach seeks to diminish the influence of programs considered distractions from security priorities while channeling resources towards training programs and internal policies aligned with strict national security objectives. These modifications may also involve strengthening technical and intelligence capabilities, offering additional incentives to employees who contribute effectively to the administration’s goals. Departments may be restructured as well, reducing reliance on diversity-focused programs in favor of initiatives that promote coordination and collaboration among different security agencies. This strategy aims to build a robust, cohesive intelligence community, more focused on supporting the administration’s foreign and security policies, while reducing influences that could disrupt unity within the agency.
Rebuilding Intelligence Relations with International Allies: Despite Trump’s unilateral approach, he may seek to rebuild intelligence relationships with certain international allies, particularly to address common challenges. An example might be the anticipated increasing cooperation with the United Kingdom on cybersecurity issues related to China. Figures like John Demers, a former Justice Department official, may be tasked with strengthening these intelligence relationships, as these steps could help reinforce essential international alliances for U.S. national security.
In conclusion, Trump’s election victory could lead to significant changes in the structure and policies of U.S. intelligence agencies, potentially affecting the power balance within them and placing them in direct confrontation with the White House. Furthermore, Trump may implement this strategy by enhancing the powers of the DNI, carrying out a domestic purge campaign, and focusing efforts on countering China, allowing him to reshape national security agencies according to his vision. This could lead to significant clashes within those agencies and possibly challenges in achieving stability, both domestically and internationally.
