This article will discuss the features of the political, security, and economic landscape in the country, the main trends regarding the elections, the programs and affiliations of the participating parties, as well as the anticipated scenarios and results.
A Troubled Landscape
The parliamentary elections in Senegal come amid a turbulent political and security scene in the country, which the main speaker outlined as follows:
Early Elections Following the President’s Decision to Dissolve Parliament: The main speaker noted that the Senegalese legislative elections are being held early, outside their usual schedule, following a presidential decision to dissolve the parliament. This aims to secure a stable parliamentary majority, especially given the ongoing political disputes in the parliament between the ruling party and opposition parties that have controlled the majority of seats since the term of former President Macky Sall. This decision has sparked considerable debate within political circles, with supporters deeming it lawful and a necessary step, as the National Assembly no longer reflects the President’s aspirations. Conversely, the opposition sees this move as a political maneuver, labeling it as an “attempt to control the elections.” They hope to reach arrangements for a power-sharing agreement but face significant challenges in this regard, as the main speaker confirmed.
Chaos and Political Brawls in Previous Parliaments: The main speaker explained that previous parliaments in Senegal have witnessed repeated incidents of political violence and brawls driven by political disputes among parties. These parliaments have failed to focus on their role in highlighting issues that matter to the general public. The most notable incident occurred in 2022 when opposition member Massata Sarr slapped pro-government MP Amy Ndiaye following a heated discussion sparked by remarks made by Ndiaye in a previous session, leading to a collective brawl among deputies in the chamber involving exchanges of blows with chairs and fists, ultimately resulting in the session being suspended.
Political Crisis Due to the Delay of the Presidential Elections: Dr. Mohamed Mukhtar Gaye highlighted the tensions and political unrest in Senegal, particularly in the capital Dakar, following former President Macky Sall’s decision to postpone the presidential elections from their original date on February 25, 2024, allowing him to remain in power until 2025. This decision caused a major controversy, especially during the National Assembly’s vote on the matter, during which security forces intervened to forcibly remove opposing deputies, preventing them from voting. The opposition labeled the decision as a “constitutional coup,” claiming the country has become a “hostage.” President Sall justified the postponement as necessary to address issues concerning candidates and allegations of corruption within the electoral body. Protests erupted in the streets of Dakar, with demonstrators demanding the cancellation of the decision.
Violent Protests Due to Sonko’s Trial: Senegal also witnessed a wave of protests in several cities in 2023 following the summons of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko to court, facing allegations of corruption and rape. The protests led to violent confrontations and the vandalism of public properties and French institutions, amid repeated calls from Sonko to the youth to demonstrate, claiming these cases aim to prevent him from running in the 2024 elections, amidst speculations that former President Macky Sall sought to run for a third term. The government responded with heightened security measures.
Senegal Facing Multiple Economic and Security Challenges: As explained by the main speaker, Senegal is grappling with various economic and security challenges due to the influx of migrants from countries like Mali, Guinea, and Mauritania, which themselves face security challenges due to the spread of terrorist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Mali has experienced a coup and political turmoil, along with foreign interventions and military tensions in the region. The Senegalese populace suffers from high unemployment rates among youth; more than 60% of the population is under 25 years old, with about 35% of Senegalese youth unemployed, based on 2019 estimates. Additionally, there are food shortages and rising prices exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and the Ukraine war. This context poses risks of migration, with Senegalese attempting to cross the Atlantic to Europe illegally due to limited opportunities.
Rising Anti-French Sentiments in the Country: Anti-government protests in Senegal led to widespread unrest, with businesses owned by French nationals in Dakar suffering severe damage. The protests, initially triggered by Sonko’s trial, quickly escalated into anti-French sentiments, resulting in the looting and burning of major French stores and gas stations amid rising anger over inequality, government corruption, and historical ties with France. Protesters claimed that the ongoing French influence, including its economic dominance through companies like Auchan and Total, exacerbated inequality in Senegal. These disruptions reflected deeper frustrations with the colonial legacy.
Previous Government Accused of Falsifying Economic Data: The new Senegalese government engaged in discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to address financial discrepancies after an audit revealed that the national debt and budget deficit were much higher than reported by the previous administration. Economy Minister Abdou Rahman Sow disclosed that the deficit in 2023 exceeded 10%, sharply contrasting with the previously reported 5%. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko accused the former authorities of falsifying financial data and misleading the country and its international partners. Due to these findings, Senegal postponed its IMF withdrawal request until corrective measures could be implemented.
Map of Alliances
The main speaker outlined the primary electoral alliances in the Senegalese parliamentary elections, which can be described as follows:
Four Major Coalitions Leading the Electoral Competition: The participating parties in the upcoming elections, numbering 41, are divided into several coalitions, among which four are the most prominent: the “Pestif” party, led by Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko; the “Taku Walu Senegal” (Together to Save Senegal) coalition led by former President Macky Sall; the “Jam Ak Jariin” (Peace and Prosperity) coalition, led by former Prime Minister under Sall and presidential candidate in the March 2024 elections, Amadou Ba; and the “Sam Sakado” (Fulfilling the Covenant) alliance, led by Dakar Mayor Barthélemy Dias. All candidates are competing for 165 seats in the National Assembly.
Sonko’s Policy of Independence from French Influence: The main speaker confirmed that Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, hailing from the separatist region of Casamance, is viewed as a strong symbol by his supporters in the region. Sonko advocates for independence from French influence, a sentiment that resonates with youth and civil groups. He also calls for disengagement from the monetary system tied to France via the Central African CFA franc, seeking to liberate the Senegalese economy, aligning with movements in other African countries to distance themselves from France. Sonko’s Pestif party, under his leadership, aims to enhance its political influence and further consolidate control over the political landscape in Senegal.
Sall’s Attempt to Regain Political Control: The Taku Walu coalition, led by former President Macky Sall, seeks to reclaim its political influence by uniting prominent liberal forces and old opposition parties. The coalition includes Sall’s “Alliance for the Republic” party, which constituted the majority in the dissolved parliament, and the Senegalese Democratic Party led by former President Abdou Wade. Although Sall ruled the country from 2012 to 2024, he was forced to abandon his plans for a third term under public pressure and postponed elections before the end of his term. While Sall’s supporters praise his achievements, particularly in infrastructure projects, they feel that the youth have tarnished his image.
Amadou Ba’s Quest for Parliamentary Balance: The “Jam Ak Jariin” (Peace and Prosperity) coalition, led by former Prime Minister Amadou Ba, aims to enhance the balance in parliament, having secured 36% of the votes in the March 2024 elections. The coalition includes opposition parties, and with extensive experience in governance that began with former President Abdou Diouf, Ba promises to achieve economic prosperity and create job opportunities.
Special Focus of the Sam Sakado Coalition on the Capital: The main speaker noted that the “Sam Sakado” coalition, led by Dakar Mayor Barthélemy Dias, specifically targets the capital Dakar, including prominent opposition figures like former presidential candidate Anta Babakar Ngom and businessman Bouguendé Jaye Dany.
Focus of Electoral Campaigns on Citizens’ Priorities: Candidates for the parliamentary elections are trying to avoid the weaknesses of previous parliaments, steering clear of political wrangling, and focusing on issues that matter to voters, including addressing the economic and unemployment challenges facing Senegal, especially food shortages and rising prices, as well as issuing residency permits for foreign refugees.
Outbreak of Violence During Election Campaigns: The main speaker pointed out that some violent incidents occurred during the electoral campaigns, resulting in several injuries in the Saint-Louis area, northern Senegal, and among the injured were activists from the ruling Pestif party. Security agencies in the country warned against plans to disrupt electoral activities and prohibited carrying weapons and fireworks until mid-December 2024, issuing strict orders to search suspects. Political parties were also urged to inform authorities of their electoral movements in advance. Meanwhile, the Dakar mayor is accused of inciting violence as one of the largest opponents of the ruling Pestif party.
Expected Scenarios
As for the primary potential scenarios regarding the outcomes of the elections, they are as follows:
Achieving Harmony Between the Executive and Legislative Powers: If the Pestif party wins the parliamentary elections, harmony between the executive and legislative branches will be realized, creating a political atmosphere supportive of the reform agenda promised by the party during the presidential campaign. Senegalese people expect President Fay and Prime Minister Sonko to fulfill their promises to combat corruption and enhance transparency in government institutions. The main speaker predicts that in this scenario, the Senegalese economy will witness a boost aimed at improving critical sectors like agriculture, energy, and infrastructure, resulting in increased job opportunities and improved living standards. Moreover, the coalition will bolster the country’s sovereignty through renegotiating oil and gas contracts in service of national interests, opening the door for more balanced and sustainable investments.
Opposition Confrontation with the Government Post-Control of Parliament: If the opposition gains control of the parliament, Prime Minister Sonko’s government will struggle to implement its reform programs, possibly leading to a state of political stagnation or even a political crisis threatening the country’s stability. According to this scenario, clashes between the executive and legislative branches may halt key projects and negatively impact foreign investor confidence. On the other hand, a form of parliamentary coexistence may be achieved if the parties agree to postpone major contentious issues and focus on what serves the public interest.
Concerns over Violence Erupting from Political Tensions: With the continuation of sharp political rhetoric and unrest within Senegal, warnings have risen regarding the potential escalation of internal tensions, especially if harmony between political forces is not achieved, particularly given the growing popular support for Sonko, reflecting discontent towards the traditional political class. If these tensions persist without political solutions, Senegal may find itself on the brink of a security crisis affecting internal stability, with increasing rates of violence and unrest.
A Pivotal Election
In conclusion, the upcoming phase appears crucial in determining the future of the country amid this complex political, economic, and security landscape. These elections are landmark events and will mark a key checkpoint in shaping the political dynamics in Senegal for the forthcoming period, between the possibility of the Pestif party continuing its political control over the government and parliament and implementing its political agenda comfortably, and the opposition’s ascent to parliament, raising hopes for a return to power and initiating a new phase of political clashes between the former and current ruling coalitions.
