In line with the growing interest of Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger in enhancing cooperation and economic partnership, and their extensive efforts to expedite the gas pipeline project to Europe, the three countries signed a series of agreements on February 11, 2025, as serious steps towards achieving the project swiftly. This raises several questions about the implications of these joint moves at this timing.
Notably, it is reported that Nigeria’s confirmed natural gas reserves are estimated at about 5.913 trillion cubic meters, equivalent to 2.8% of the global reserves, making it the eighth largest country in the world in terms of confirmed gas reserves in 2022. Meanwhile, Algeria ranks tenth globally with about 4.504 trillion cubic meters, accounting for approximately 2.1% of the global reserves in the same year. Algeria and Nigeria’s natural gas exports reached approximately 1.821 trillion cubic feet and 576 billion cubic feet respectively in 2023, representing 1.3% of global natural gas exports, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. During this time, Nigeria began developing eight oil and gas projects, while Niger started four projects.
Numerous Implications
There are several implications of these joint moves at this specific timing, which can be summarized as follows:
Shared Desire to Enhance Economic Partnership: The current actions can be interpreted in the context of Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger’s shared interest in boosting economic partnership and supporting efforts toward sustainable economic development. The project represents a strong boost for economic and social development, focusing on cooperation among African countries to access global markets. Algeria continues its commitment to this project as part of its vision to enhance African partnerships and invest in the continent’s economic potential.
Algeria’s Drive to Strengthen Its Presence in the Sahel and West Africa: Algeria aims to expand its economic presence in the West African region and the African Sahel, given the region’s strategic depth for Algeria. This economic presence strengthens its political relationships with these countries and enhances Algeria’s leverage over their orientations. It is important to note that there is competition between Algeria and Morocco for political and economic influence in the region, and both countries are competing to propose security, political, and economic initiatives to sway regional nations. Additionally, this Algerian project competes with Morocco’s gas project, which connects West African countries through Morocco to Europe.
Algeria’s Efforts to Contain Political Tensions with Niger: Recently, relations between Algeria and several Sahel countries have experienced escalating tensions, especially with Mali and Niger. It seems that Algeria seeks to contain these tensions and mend its relationships with the military government in Niger, especially in light of Moroccan efforts to sway Sahel countries and target Algerian influence in the region. It is worth mentioning that the announcement of this agreement came shortly after Morocco hosted an African summit regarding its Atlantic initiative, which many West African countries, including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, announced their participation in. This suggests that Algeria’s actions reflect its desire to curb Moroccan influence in the African Sahel.
Leveraging Increased Energy Demand in the European Market: Given Europe’s thirst for energy and the high costs associated with importing gas from the United States, the three countries aim to capitalize on this to achieve economic gains through meeting rising gas demand in the European market. According to Eurostat, the value of the EU’s gas imports in 2023 reached approximately 157 billion euros, with liquefied natural gas worth 5.8 billion euros, and natural gas at 14.2 billion euros. Algeria’s gas imports to Europe accounted for 13.6% of the EU’s total natural gas imports in 2023, rising to 17% in the first eleven months of 2024. The EU also imported liquefied natural gas worth 3 billion euros from Nigeria in 2023.
Numerous Challenges
Despite the ongoing efforts to accelerate the gas pipeline project to Europe, several challenges still face the ambitions of the three countries:
Difficulties in Securing the Gas Line from Theft and Hijacking: Reports indicate that the European gas pipeline will span 4,000 square kilometers, presenting extensive challenges for the three countries, predominantly related to the difficulty of securing and protecting this pipeline from theft and hijacking, especially in light of the increasing influence of terrorist organizations in West Africa and the Sahel. Nigeria, for instance, continues to battle the Boko Haram organization, while Niger faces ongoing terrorist attacks from factions loyal to ISIS and al-Qaeda in the region, raising fears of these organizations targeting the gas for profits used in financing their terrorist activities.
Possibility of Resuming Russian Gas Supply in the European Market: With the election of the U.S. president and Trump’s intention to resolve the Ukrainian crisis and end the Russian-Ukrainian war, Europe may lift sanctions on Russian gas, allowing its resumption in the European market. This, if realized, could challenge the Nigerian gas pipeline project through Algeria.
Rising Trends in Green Policy Investment in Europe: Many European countries are increasing their investments in green policies as an alternative energy source, especially following Trump’s return to the White House and his aims to reshape global energy policies. This trend could diminish demand for fossil fuel sources, including gas, and therefore may impact the anticipated European investments in the Nigerian gas pipeline project.
Growing Algerian-European Tensions on Various Files: Algerian-European relations, particularly with France, are experiencing several tensions, especially following President Emmanuel Macron’s inclination to recognize Morocco’s autonomy initiative in Western Sahara, in addition to Algeria’s strained relations with Spain due to Spanish rapprochement with Morocco. Such tensions could affect the future of economic relations between Algeria and some European countries, particularly if Trump’s new administration successfully negotiates a political deal with Moscow that ensures the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, followed by the resumption of Russian gas supply in Europe.
Emergence of Various Alternatives for Natural Gas Transportation in the EU: Estimates in 2022 indicated that the cost of the gas transit line between Algeria, Niger, and Nigeria would reach
The project is estimated to cost $13 billion. While the EU works to regain its influence in Africa and access critical minerals, it is considering financing this line or the proposed line between Nigeria and Morocco, which will pass through 11 African countries (Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, Senegal, and Mauritania) to transport 3 billion cubic feet of gas daily.
Additionally, there are concerted efforts underway to implement the Indian-Gulf-Israeli economic corridor, which will extend from India through the Gulf, passing through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Jordan, before reaching Europe.
Furthermore, a project to transfer green hydrogen from India and Gulf states, after blending it with natural gas, is estimated to cost $10.4 billion. This includes approximately $6.5 billion for the pipeline between Israel and Europe and $3.9 billion for the connection between Israel, the Gulf, and India.
Influence Race
Overall, while the economic motivations behind Algeria’s collaboration with Nigeria and Niger in the gas pipeline project are evident, Algeria also appears to have significant political motivations driving this path, primarily aimed at countering Morocco’s growing influence across political, economic, security, and military dimensions. However, the security challenges, the potential return of Russian gas to the European market, and increasing green policy investments in European nations will pose further challenges to the realization of this project.
