All eyes are on Belém, Brazil, where the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP30, is being held from November 10 to 21, 2025. Observers hope that this year’s conference will produce optimistic results amid rising concerns about reaching a point of no return in the climate crisis, against a global backdrop dominated more by disagreements and conflict than by areas of shared consensus on an issue that has become more urgent than ever.
COP30 is expected to be a turning point in climate action efforts. With global temperatures rising, climate financing failing, and countries divided on how to accelerate the energy transition, the risks are higher than ever. The conference is also anticipated to feature difficult negotiations that could shape climate policies for decades, particularly on issues such as climate justice, biodiversity protection, adaptation strategies, and the role of developing countries.
The preparatory conference held in mid-October highlighted the importance of strengthening multilateralism within the global climate agenda and emphasized advancing the implementation of the climate agreement as a means to reinforce multilateralism. The Brazilian presidency of COP30 proposed three main objectives: enhancing multilateralism and the climate system within the UN framework, connecting the climate system to people’s real-life experiences, and accelerating the implementation of the 2015 Paris Agreement by promoting efforts and structural adjustments across institutions capable of contributing to this endeavor.
Climate Financing:
“The impacts of climate change are accelerating, yet adaptation finance is not keeping pace,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message marking the release of the 2025 Adaptation Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme, just days before COP30. The report estimates that the cost of adaptation finance needed in developing countries will reach around $310 billion annually by 2035, rising to $365 billion annually when based on the needs expressed in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and national adaptation plans. In contrast, international public finance flows for adaptation to developing countries reached only $26 billion in 2023, a decline of about $2 billion from 2022, meaning that adaptation finance needs exceed current flows by 12 to 14 times.
If current funding trends continue, the goal of the Glasgow Climate Pact to double international public adaptation finance from 2019 levels by 2025 will not be achieved, and the new collective quantitative climate finance goal is not ambitious enough to close the financing gap.
Key Issues:
There are five key areas that represent both opportunities and risks for financial institutions in climate action:
- Stronger national climate plans with clearer investment pathways:
The first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement transformed the projected warming from around 4°C to between 2.1°C and 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels. While this is progress, it remains far from the 1.5°C target. Parties must submit more ambitious NDCs specifying actions through 2035. For the private sector, the real value lies in translating these plans into sectoral pathways and investment opportunities, or what is called “investable nationally determined contributions.” Without this clarity, mobilizing private capital at scale will be challenging. - Providing climate finance for developing countries:
At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan last year, countries agreed on a new collective quantitative goal: advanced nations pledged at least $300 billion annually to developing countries by 2035, in addition to mobilizing up to $1.3 trillion per year from multiple public and private sources. The “Baku-to-Belém Finance Roadmap,” led by the presidencies of COP29 and COP30, seeks to determine how to achieve this by attracting large-scale private capital to mitigate and adapt to climate change in developing countries. Supporting this goal, the UNEP Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) is forming a global alliance representing thousands of public and private institutions to provide concrete recommendations. - Promoting sustainable and climate-aligned investment:
Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) disclosures have opened the door to tangible business opportunities and more advanced sustainable finance taxonomies. These systems help governments and private sector actors define what qualifies as a sustainable or climate investment, enhancing investor confidence, facilitating cross-border capital flows, and ensuring climate finance credibility. COP30 is expected to unveil new national and regional plans in this direction, strengthening global finance mobilization mechanisms under Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement, which aims to “make financial flows consistent with a pathway toward low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.” - Finalizing rules for the UN-supported global carbon market:
Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement paves the way for the first regulated global carbon market. While voluntary markets already exist, this mechanism will create a UN-supervised system for trading verified carbon credits. Almost all countries have expressed intentions to use carbon credits to meet their NDCs. For the financial sector, this presents potential roles as funders of programs generating carbon credits, buyers to meet emission reduction goals, sellers for overachieving institutions, or providers of risk management and insurance services. Following the COP29 agreement on key implementation guidelines, Belém will focus on finalizing the technical rules before launching the market. - Coordinating a fair and inclusive transition:
The transition away from fossil fuels must be fair and inclusive. In June 2025, parties made progress in defining the framework for a just transition. COP30 is expected to adopt Belém’s proposed mechanism for a just transition—a framework under the UNFCCC for implementing the just transition agenda within and among countries. This work will show how governments and the private sector can place people at the center of national and sectoral transitions, including stakeholder engagement, job creation and training, and diversification strategies.
Leadership Circles:
COP30 has launched four leadership circles to leverage key issues for the future of climate action and global mobilization. These groups facilitate discussions on climate finance, indigenous peoples and communities, climate governance, and global mobilization.
They aim to accelerate Paris Agreement implementation and encourage global climate action. Each group operates independently in parallel with negotiations, supporting the COP30 presidency. The UN Secretary-General and the Brazilian President lead a “Global Ethical Assessment,” including political, cultural, indigenous, community, entrepreneurial, and religious leaders.
The Brazilian Finance Minister leads a “Finance Ministers’ Circle” for the Baku-to-Belém roadmap to provide $1.3 trillion annually to developing countries by 2035, bringing together finance ministers, experts, private sector, and civil society for regular consultations on climate finance. This group will support the COP presidency and prepare a roadmap report in collaboration with COP29.
The Minister for Indigenous Peoples leads the “Peoples’ Circle” to increase representation of indigenous, traditional, and African-descendant communities, ensuring traditional knowledge is respected and integrated into international climate discussions.
For the first time, the fourth circle brings together former COP presidents since COP21 (2015), led by former French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, to focus on strengthening global climate governance and accelerating Paris Agreement implementation.
Commitments and Implications:
Despite efforts toward consensus on climate action, disagreements remain significant. China has pledged to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% by 2035, increase the share of non-fossil energy to over 30% of total energy consumption, and increase wind and solar generation capacity sixfold compared to 2020, alongside a series of measures supporting the energy transition.
The European Union has reaffirmed its progress toward clean energy—reducing emissions by 40% since 1990—and continues to be the largest global climate funder, allocating up to €300 billion to support the global clean energy transition. Nevertheless, current pledges remain insufficient; estimates indicate that existing national plans would reduce emissions by only 2.6% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, far below the global target of 43%, considered necessary to keep global warming within 1.5°C.
In contrast, some U.S. sources report that the United States will not send senior officials to COP30. In October, Washington threatened visa restrictions and sanctions against countries voting for a plan by the International Maritime Organization to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, reflecting current U.S. policies that significantly limit its role in international climate agreements and support for climate action.
Conclusion:
COP30, hosted by Brazil this year, represents a pivotal moment in climate action, shifting focus from negotiation to actual implementation of climate commitments. It faces tough tests in translating previously formulated goals into real financial flows and integrating results from the first Global Stocktake into a new generation of more ambitious and comprehensive NDCs. This makes COP30 particularly sensitive, especially given the widening gap between current pledges and what is required to achieve the Paris Agreement’s targets and avoid crossing the climate point of no return.
