Will China’s efforts succeed in distancing Haiti and Saint Lucia from Taiwan?

In response to an invitation from China, Haiti and Saint Lucia, both of which maintain official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, sent delegations to participate in the fourth ministerial meeting of the China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) forum recently hosted by Beijing, even though they do not have diplomatic relations with China. The forum aimed to enhance relations between China and CELAC, alongside China’s intensifying efforts to diplomatically isolate Taiwan.

Diverse Contexts:

The participation of Haiti and Saint Lucia, both members of CELAC, in the forum occurs within varied contexts regarding China and Taiwan’s relationships with the member states, which can be clarified as follows:

1. Strong Relations between China and CELAC Countries:
   China has established strong ties with the CELAC nations, as demonstrated by several key developments, the most recent being Beijing’s hosting of the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC Forum in mid-May 2025. This meeting yielded significant outcomes, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge to provide $9.2 billion in loans to Latin American and Caribbean countries, as well as the official approval of Colombia’s accession to the Belt and Road Initiative, endorsed by both President Xi and Colombian President Gustavo Petro. Additionally, bilateral trade between China and CELAC countries reached $500 billion, accompanied by frequent high-level reciprocal visits, further reinforcing the strength of these ties.

Despite the lack of official diplomatic relations between China and Haiti, China has shown considerable interest in the crisis in Haiti, especially within the multilateral framework, benefiting from its permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council. In response to developments in Haiti following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, China affirmed its commitment to work towards restoring stability in Haiti. Beijing also called on the authorities in Haiti and various parties and factions to advance the political process in the country. Furthermore, China’s declaration at the conclusion of the fourth ministerial meeting committed to working with the international community and the UN to help Haiti rebuild a secure environment through comprehensive developmental approaches.

In contrast to Haiti, Saint Lucia, an island nation with a population of 180,000, has experienced several shifts between recognizing China and Taiwan over the past four decades, having established relations with Taipei from 1984 to 1997, recognized Beijing from 1997 to 2006, before reverting to Taipei again in 2007.

2. Deteriorating Relations between Taiwan and CELAC Countries: Unlike the notable flourishing of relations between China and Latin American and Caribbean countries in various fields, relations between Taiwan and these countries have been experiencing significant decline recently. During the tenure of former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, five countries in Latin America severed their diplomatic ties with Taiwan: Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras, the latter of which shifted its relations to Beijing in 2023.

Nonetheless, Taiwan maintains strong ties with Haiti, extending nearly seven decades back, with diplomatic relations established in 1956. Over the years, cooperation between the two countries has deepened, with Taiwan contributing to the development of agriculture, healthcare, infrastructure, and education in Haiti, while the latter supports Taiwan’s participation in international organizations. Recently, these ties have seen tangible developments, with Haiti participating in the inauguration ceremony of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. Taipei also announced that it has established friendly and strong relations with the transitional government in Haiti.

In addition to its strong relations with Haiti, Taiwan also has significant diplomatic ties with Saint Lucia, resumed in 2007, where the latter welcomed the renewal of close bilateral ties and cooperation projects with Taipei. Taiwan, for its part, shows great appreciation for Saint Lucia’s support in enhancing its engagement in the international community.

The main features of the relationship between the two countries are reflected in Taiwan’s allocation of investments to establish bilateral cooperation projects with Saint Lucia, especially in business development, infrastructure improvement, and human resource development. Both nations engage in high-level official visits, with Saint Lucia’s Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre visiting Taiwan multiple times, including in May 2024 to participate in the inauguration ceremony for Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te.

Multiple Implications:

The recent participation of Haiti and Saint Lucia in the CELAC-China forum carries several implications, which can be clarified as follows:

1. Beijing’s Pragmatism in Dealing with Taiwan’s Allies: The participation of Haiti and Saint Lucia in the forum organized by China reflects Beijing’s pragmatism in engaging with countries maintaining diplomatic relations with Taiwan in Latin America and the Caribbean. It also indicates China’s flexible approach to approaching the few remaining official allies of Taipei.

Estimates suggest that China purposely invited Haiti and Saint Lucia to attend the forum, and the acceptance of this invitation by both countries adds significance to this development. This is evidenced by a statement from Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, who described the forum as a “platform for mutually beneficial cooperation,” indicating that China welcomes all CELAC member countries regardless of their official diplomatic alliances.

2. Taiwan’s Increasing Isolation: China aims to tighten the noose around Taiwan and increase its international isolation by reducing the number of countries with diplomatic relations with Taipei, which Beijing considers an integral part of its territory and threatens to forcibly reunify if necessary. China has consistently sought to limit Taiwan’s international space, and involving its diplomatic allies through multilateral forums like CELAC is part of this broader strategy. In recent years, Beijing has successfully reduced the number of countries officially exchanging diplomatic representation with Taiwan, which currently stands at 12.

Over the past five years, the number of Latin American countries engaging with Taiwan has significantly decreased, with only seven countries currently recognizing it: Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Paraguay, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Taiwan is concerned about the potential decline in international support, which contributes to its increasing isolation, explaining its anxiety regarding the participation of Haiti and Saint Lucia in the CELAC-China forum in Beijing.

3. China’s Aspirations to Enhance Its Role in Latin America: China seeks to play a larger role in the Latin America and Caribbean region commensurate with its current international standing. This ambition is met with strong opposition from the United States, which views the region as its sphere of influence, leading to intense competition for influence between Beijing and Washington. On April 21, 2025, China criticized the U.S. role in the current crisis in Haiti during a meeting at the UN Security Council, particularly its role in creating and perpetuating the political chaos and humanitarian disaster affecting the country and impoverishing its people. Furthermore, China condemned the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on Haiti.

As U.S.-China rivalry continues, Latin American and Caribbean countries may face challenges in balancing their pursuit of national interests as Washington seeks to re-engage in the region while China intensifies its efforts to present itself as a more reliable partner.

Future Scenarios:

Despite Haiti and Saint Lucia currently maintaining official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, new developments and dynamics may arise in the near future, possibly prompting them to sever ties with Taipei and pivot toward China. In this context, the following scenarios emerge:

1. Establishing Relations with China: This scenario posits that both Haiti and Saint Lucia may move towards establishing official diplomatic relations with China, especially since many countries with ties to Taipei wish to enhance relations with Beijing. Motivations for this scenario from China’s perspective include the potential announcement by both nations to sever ties with Taiwan and to recognize the “One China” principle, acknowledging the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of China. Additional important motivators include Haiti’s geographical proximity to the United States and its mineral and gas reserves, factors that could lead China to consider establishing official diplomatic relations with Haiti for economic and geopolitical reasons.

For Haiti, several incentives could prompt a reevaluation of its relationship with Taiwan, potentially considering a shift in recognition from Taiwan to China, including China’s support for it at the UN Security Council, both countries maintaining representative and commercial offices in their capitals, and the resumption of the Chinese Commercial Development Office’s operations in Haiti in July 2024.

Regarding Saint Lucia, its potential reevaluation of relations with Taiwan is tied to its willingness to accept the financial and economic incentives that China may offer and the internal political and economic climate tilting toward favoring a diplomatic shift toward China.

However, various constraints and obstacles may prevent the realization of this scenario—at least in the short to medium-term—such as Haiti’s struggles with violence, natural disasters, and a weak government, factors that may deter China from contemplating official diplomatic relations with Haiti.

Moreover, Saint Lucia’s adoption of what is termed “dual-track diplomacy” would not preclude it from maintaining unofficial dealings with Taiwan should it shift relations toward China. This approach would meet a firm stance from China, which rejects any communications with Taiwan by countries that have diplomatic relations with it. The current government in Saint Lucia implements this, as it officially recognizes Taiwan while simultaneously maintaining informal relations with China. Additionally, the United States might exert pressure on both countries to deter them from making such a move amid competition for influence in the region.

2. Continuing Relations with Taiwan: This scenario anticipates that Haiti and Saint Lucia will maintain their diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Drivers for this scenario include reaffirmation by the three nations regarding the importance of their relationships and the benefits that accrue to all parties involved. Taiwan has emphasized, in response to Haiti and Saint Lucia’s participation in the CELAC-China forum, that its relations with both countries are robust and stable; therefore, it is unlikely that there will be any changes in relations with Taiwan in the short term, as Latin American and Caribbean countries continue to see tangible benefits from supporting Taiwan.

Supporting this scenario is the fact that statements from officials in Taiwan and Haiti indicate a commitment to sustaining relations, with the Haitian government supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations and valuing peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. In turn, Taiwan looks forward to Haiti’s progress in restoring constitutional and social order and aims to enhance cooperation with the new administration in Haiti to deepen their diplomatic ties.

An external motivator supporting this scenario is the United States’ aspiration to bolster Taiwan’s standing and prevent further backtracking by its allies regarding relations with Taipei. This is reflected in the reintroduction of the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act in the U.S. Congress, which mandates the allocation of $40 million annually to support Taiwan and its allies over the period from 2025 to 2027.

Nevertheless, there are obstacles and limitations that could hinder the realization of this scenario, including fluctuations in Saint Lucia’s foreign policy between recognizing Taiwan and China, which suggests that the likelihood of continuance in relations between Saint Lucia and Taiwan remains highly questionable, especially as the ruling “Labor Party” in Saint Lucia, which advocates for closer ties with China, may shift its trajectory again toward a diplomatic pivot to China.

3. Severing Relations with Taiwan: Haiti and Saint Lucia may perceive that the losses associated with maintaining relations with Taiwan could outweigh the benefits derived from these relationships. This could lead them to follow the lead of other Latin American countries that have severed ties with Taiwan in favor of China, resulting in the cessation of relations with Taipei. Incentives for this scenario include China’s potential provision of economic incentives to encourage both countries to sever ties with Taiwan and pivot toward China, compounded by Taiwan’s acknowledgment of recent difficulties in its relations with Haiti, given the latter’s political crisis.

However, some constraints and challenges may hinder such a scenario, including concerns posed by Haiti’s current political crisis regarding the future of its relations with Taiwan. The situation in Haiti remains far from stable due to gang violence, ongoing political conflicts, and criminal disputes, which suggests there is no incentive for Haiti to sever its ties with Taiwan in the near to medium term.

In conclusion, the relationship between Taiwan and the CELAC countries faces a significant crossroads amid a notable decline in these relations compared to those between China and CELAC nations. This can be attributed to Beijing’s pragmatism in managing Taipei’s allies and the increasing pressures exerted to heighten Taiwan’s international isolation, along with the growing aspirations of the world’s second-largest economy to enhance its role and influence within Latin America and the Caribbean.

As a result, new developments and dynamics may arise in the near future, potentially propelling some of these countries—particularly Haiti and Saint Lucia—to seriously consider severing their official diplomatic relations with Taiwan and shifting their recognition toward China. This scenario appears increasingly likely as they seek economic and developmental gains; however, it is likely to face rejection from the United States, which is working to reinforce Taiwan’s position in the context of U.S.-China competition over influence in the region. Such dynamics present these countries with complex challenges regarding how to balance their relationships with both competing powers.