The Canadian Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, is experiencing a sharp decline in public support. Concurrently, its ally, the New Democratic Party (NDP), has announced the termination of their coalition and the withdrawal of four ministers from the government. This backdrop coincides with the approach of the scheduled Canadian general elections in October 2025, which could witness a potential victory for the main opposition party, the Conservative Party, driven by various economic and political factors.
Revealing Indicators:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity has significantly decreased recently, evident in several aspects:
Poll Results: Most recent polling data indicates that Trudeau’s popularity is at an all-time low. An Ipsos poll conducted between September 6 and 10, 2024, revealed that only 28% of Canadians believe Trudeau deserves reelection, with just 26% prepared to vote for the Liberals; meanwhile, 44% felt that the opposition parties should defeat the government. From February 29 to March 6, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 individuals exploring various topics related to Canadian politics and current events. In this survey, Conservatives led by an 18-point margin over the Liberals, suggesting that if elections were held today, 42% of committed voters would choose Conservatives, compared to 24% for Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens.
Declining Influence of the Liberal Party: The Liberal Party faced a series of political setbacks throughout 2024, most notably the New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, announcing in September 2024 the end of the “support and confidence agreement” established with the minority Liberal government in March 2022, which had secured its continued governance until the end of its term in 2025. Singh pointed out that the Liberals had “failed the people” and do not deserve another chance with Canadians. Additionally, Trudeau’s government suffered a severe electoral blow after losing two parliamentary seats in traditionally Liberal strongholds, one in Toronto and the other in Montreal, during by-elections held in late June and mid-September 2024, coupled with the withdrawal of four ministers from contending in the upcoming general elections, including Sport Minister Carla Qualtro and Northern Affairs Minister Dan Vandal.
Although Trudeau’s government successfully passed a confidence vote twice in late September and early October 2024 due to the Conservatives’ failure to rally other opposition parties’ support, various sources revealed that Trudeau is facing increasing pressure as a growing number of Liberal MPs coordinated efforts to compel him to resign as party leader, allowing someone else to lead the party into the next general election. Consequently, at least 20 MPs signed a document calling for Trudeau’s resignation, while others expressed their support for this cause.
Multiple Explanations:
Canadians renewed their mandate for Trudeau in 2019 and 2021; however, after three years, these groups have turned against him, reflecting a significant decline in his popularity for several reasons, as follows:
Housing Crisis: The Canadian rental market is facing an unprecedented surge, with the cost of homeownership in Canada rising by 66% since Trudeau took office in 2015. This increase is primarily attributed to a rise in the number of post-secondary students signing leases before the fall and unprecedented levels of population growth, exacerbated by a decrease in housing supply due to a slowdown in new home construction.
Erosion of Public Support for Immigration: Trudeau’s policies promoting openness to immigrants, exemplified by accepting refugees from Syria, Ukraine, and others, as well as introducing a foreign workers program, have recently faced escalating criticism due to rising housing costs, pressure on the healthcare system, and increasing youth unemployment rates. Statistics indicate a growing opposition among Canadians towards the number of newcomers for the second consecutive year—approximately 6 in 10 people believe Canada has accepted too many immigrants—according to a survey conducted by the Institute for the Environment. This marks the first time since 1998 that this view has been adopted by a clear majority.
Simultaneously, the number of temporary foreign workers surged from 109,000 in 2018 to nearly 240,000 in 2023. The number of non-permanent residents, including temporary foreign workers, students, and asylum seekers, has more than doubled, rising from 1.3 million in 2021 to over three million as of July 1, according to Statistics Canada. This means they now represent 7.3% of Canada’s total population of 41 million.
Deteriorating Economic Conditions: Several reports indicated that inflation and rising interest rates have eroded Canadians’ purchasing power since 2022, particularly among low-income households. The Canadian public is accumulating higher debt relative to income than any other country in the G7. Canadians are spending an average of 15% of their disposable income to service debts, an increase of 1.5 percentage points since 2021.
Additionally, Canada is experiencing slow productivity growth, negatively impacting wages. While investments in oil and gas have been robust, investments in technology, research and development, and education have been comparatively lower in Canada than in other G7 nations.
Escalating Climate Crises: Trudeau’s government has faced a scandal relating to the “Green Corruption Fund” tied to Sustainable Development Technology Canada, worth a billion dollars. The program was canceled earlier this year after the auditor general discovered conflicts of interest and contracts worth millions awarded to unqualified entities for projects unrelated to green technology.
Support for Trudeau has also dwindled due to the carbon tax introduced in 2019, which imposed levies on greenhouse gas emissions that now equal CAD 50 per ton, set to increase by about CAD 15 annually until reaching CAD 170 per ton in 2030. This has contributed to increased hardships for families when considering the indirect costs of this tax, which, as several reports suggest, may lead to a “nuclear winter,” implying challenges in providing heat and potentially food for large segments of Canadians. This is why there is now no support for the carbon tax.
Poor Government Performance in Defense and Foreign Policy: Trudeau’s missteps exacerbated what was seen as the diminishing influence of his Liberal government in international affairs, exemplified by Canada’s failure to secure a non-permanent seat on the Security Council in 2020, losing out to Norway and Ireland by nearly 20 votes. Furthermore, criticisms regarding Canada’s defense spending have increased, as it allocates only 1.3% of its GDP to defense, a significant drop from the 2% that NATO member states are expected to contribute.
Moreover, relations with two key Asian nations, China and India, have soured. On October 14, both India and Canada expelled each other’s highest diplomats amid ongoing disputes over the murder of a separatist Sikh figure in British Columbia last year. Many Canadians interpreted this as a mere attempt to distract from the challenges Trudeau faces domestically. Tensions with China have escalated following reciprocal decisions imposing tariff barriers on each other’s imports, starting with Canada’s announcement of plans to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
Stance on Gaza Events: As Israeli bombardment intensified across various regions of Gaza, the Canadian parliament and government adopted three positions reflecting a shift in Canada’s stance toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They decided to halt all arms shipments to Israel. Just a day prior, parliament voted in favor of a two-state solution and announced the resumption of funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.
Given this context, some have suggested that Trudeau’s popularity may wane due to losing support from Jewish voters who feel that he has not done enough to ensure community safety and has contributed to anti-Semitism. Additionally, Trudeau’s support for a “humanitarian ceasefire” in Gaza has sparked backlash among key figures in his party, revealing a lack of a strong Arab or Islamic voice at his cabinet table, which has exacerbated emerging fault lines in his beleaguered party.
Trudeau’s Future:
Although Trudeau has not indicated that he is considering leaving office or resigning, speculation regarding his political future has significantly increased within Canadian political circles and can be summarized as follows:
Diminishing Electoral Chances for Trudeau: Some sources suggest that the NDP’s departure from its agreement with the Liberal Party—arguing that the Liberals are weak and losing public trust—will bolster the Conservatives’ claims, led by Pierre Poilievre, that the country needs a change in government. This development could enhance their chances of winning the upcoming elections while simultaneously diminishing Trudeau’s government’s opportunities.
Trudeau Remaining in Office: Some estimates indicate that Justin Trudeau may remain Prime Minister of Canada into next year since the NDP’s termination of the “support and confidence agreement” does not necessarily mean that the Liberal government will fall. The Liberals and the NDP still share common priorities, particularly in social policy, and both sides may continue to collaborate and vote together on these issues in the coming months to pass legislation in parliament. Moreover, the NDP has little interest in toppling the Liberals soon, as Singh will need significant time to establish a distinct identity separate from Trudeau’s long-standing support. Additionally, the Liberals could also pass legislation with support from the Bloc Québécois—the third largest party in the House of Commons—on matters where they might disagree with the New Democrats.
Ultimately, parliamentary rules dictate that the three opposition parties have a total of seven opportunities between September 16 and December 10 to present any proposals they wish. Likely, the Conservative Party, as the largest opposition party, will have three of these opportunities to try to oust Trudeau; however, the timing of opposition proposals rests in the hands of the Liberal House Leader Karina Gould, who has the power to obstruct the entire process. Furthermore, defeating the Liberals in such a proposal would mean a winter election, an unpopular scenario for voters with unpredictable outcomes, thus giving the NDP a chance to thwart any attempt to topple the government.
In conclusion, it can be asserted that it is unlikely for Canadian elections to occur before October 2025; however, this could change if MPs revolt against the Liberals or if Trudeau himself approaches the Governor General to request early elections. While many observers anticipate that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, may come to power, alliances and political deals will play a critical role in determining the next winner.
