France aspires to position itself as an active player in the current international system, particularly amid the intensifying competition between the United States and China. In this context, investigative journalist and sociologist Marc Endeweld, in his book The Grip: Macron Surrounded by a New Cold Economic War, endeavours to trace the interconnection between two fundamental yet intertwined ideas: the first is the return of the Cold War among major powers, and the second is the waning status of France on the global stage. He examines the centers of power within French politics, identifying its shortcomings while focusing on Paris’s domestic and foreign interests.
The Rise of Macronism
The book particularly emphasizes the power dynamics within French foreign policy and the prevailing influential figures:
Firstly, Endeweld outlines the existence of two competing currents within the French diplomatic corps. On one side are the Gaullists and Mitterrandists, who seek to carve a niche between the American and Russian blocs. On the other side are the neo-conservatives or Westerners, who consistently align with American positions.
Secondly, the author highlights the significant influence of Alexis Kohler within the Élysée Palace. He criticizes the inconsistencies in current French positions regarding the assessments of the diplomatic corps, noting that crucial decisions in international matters often rest with the Élysée’s foreign affairs cell, particularly with Kohler, the palace’s secretary general. The author elaborates on various conflicts of interest surrounding Kohler, illustrating the operational methods within Macron’s inner circle. Kohler has familial ties to MSC, a shipping conglomerate owned by the Aponte family, a significant geopolitical force in global shipping. This connection became especially pertinent when Kohler was managing affairs related to STX France, where he had to adjudicate on several matters amid competing interests from MSC and other firms.
Moreover, the author mentions that Kohler plays a primary role in foreign policy decisions, maintaining a long-standing relationship with Macron dating back to Kohler’s tenure as an advisor when Macron was appointed Minister of Economy in 2014. At that time, Kohler was granted considerable autonomy over numerous industrial and strategic files. Upon reaching the Élysée, he retained control over vital strategic and industrial matters, further extending to intelligence and national security files, even overshadowing the authority of Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire.
Thirdly, the book indicates Macron’s endorsement of an exaggerated presidential model, with live testimonies suggesting that Kohler is the most powerful Élysée secretary general in the history of the Fifth Republic, sometimes described as the de facto vice president. This substantial power does not seem to disturb Macron, who favors this robust form of leadership that diminishes governmental authority against the presidential persona.
The dominance of Macronism in French decision-making is noted. The excess power wielded by Kohler can be attributed not only to competence but also to his close ties with the Aponte family. More broadly, Macronism represents a phenomenon where private interests evidently infiltrate the political decision-making process, leading to the erosion of French democratic institutions. The author posits that elected parliaments and governments often become mere spectators to the decisions made by the ruling elite, aligned with their personal interests.
Fourthly, the author addresses the rising role of intelligence in French diplomacy. He suggests that the centralization of international decision-making in the Élysée and the intertwining of diplomatic issues with private interests have undermined France’s role and presence even within its former spheres of influence. According to Endeweld, France is experiencing genuine militarization as intelligence agencies increasingly dominate diplomacy, with various actors being actively mobilized by the Élysée.
Middle East Policies
The book discusses several French policies regarding the Middle East:
Firstly, it emphasizes France’s monitoring of the American withdrawal from the region. Endeweld highlights France’s keen interest in the implications of this withdrawal, as Americans, from a security perspective, appear disengaged from the Middle East. However, they maintain interest in three countries: Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. By further betting on the Turkey-Tehran-Karachi axis, Washington attempts to use these nations as a counterweight against European and Asian powers like Russia and China.
Secondly, Endeweld tracks the historical ties between France and Saudi Arabia, starting from the assistance provided by the French counter-terrorism unit GIGN to regain control of the Grand Mosque in Mecca in 1979. Following this, Saudi requests for French arms surged, but the author criticizes this economic diplomacy for lacking any coherent vision of France’s global standing, particularly as the kingdom plays a double game, subtly suggesting to the U.S. that it has found alternatives.
Thirdly, the book addresses the employment of parallel diplomacy in Lebanon, particularly following Macron’s visit after the Beirut port explosion in August 2020. Macron aimed for a diplomatic victory to counterbalance the setbacks experienced during the Yellow Vest protests, hoping that resolving Lebanon’s political crisis would afford France a reconstruction opportunity using French institutions and companies. However, the author contends Macron’s error lay in disregarding the assessments of French diplomats and collaborating with Kohler to monopolize the Beirut reconstruction plan. Consequently, French influence in the Middle East diminished significantly, drifting far from the stature held during Jacques Chirac’s era, when no developments could transpire in the region without France’s involvement.
Fourthly, the author describes how diplomacy has been intertwined with business in Libya and Algeria, highlighting Macron’s approach in Africa, where he has merged diplomatic efforts with commercial interests, often allying with questionable figures. This pattern is evident in both Algeria and Libya, consistently yielding the same result: an ineffective informal diplomacy with various African nations.
Energy Dilemma
The issue of energy has emerged as a crucial challenge for France, facing several hurdles:
First, Endeweld details France’s opposition to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, arguing that it would grant Germany additional long-term control over European energy. On the other hand, Germany worked to obstruct the South Stream pipeline to bolster the Northern Pipeline 2. With the onset of President Biden’s term before the Ukrainian war, Merkel successfully convinced Biden to withdraw U.S. opposition to Nord Stream 2, isolating France amid its inability to reach an agreement with Germany.
Secondly, the author points out the growing reliance on Russian gas, stating that Europe’s primary energy challenge is its increased dependence on Russian gas over the past 20 to 30 years. This reliance has been exacerbated by Germany’s pivot away from nuclear energy, diminishing cooperation with North African gas producers like Algeria, dwindling gas reserves in the North Sea, and the shift away from long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas.
Thirdly, the author notes the negative implications of the Ukrainian war on France’s energy landscape, demonstrating that France and Europe find themselves caught between U.S. and Russian interests. The demand for energy transition has heightened dependence on natural gas, despite its carbon-rich nature, complicating the search for alternatives to Russian and U.S. liquefied natural gas. Moreover, lobbying groups are seen to have a strong influence on public opinion and governmental decisions in France regarding energy matters, exemplified by Czech energy mogul Daniel Kretinsky’s investments in French media outlets.
Fourthly, the author criticizes France’s delayed decision-making regarding its aging nuclear sector, arguing that crucial choices were not made in a timely manner. Supply chains are now outdated, and operational rates of nuclear plants are decreasing, compounded by emerging technical issues that have led to the temporary shutdown of several reactors. He warns that France must pay attention to its energy path, as its nuclear energy model is facing a significant existential and industrial crisis.
Fifthly, Macron’s persistent efforts to privatize the energy sector are highlighted, despite the absence of significant energy debates during the 2017 presidential campaign. Endeweld reveals a project known as Hercule, which aims to dismantle Électricité de France (EDF) and nationalize the nuclear sector while pushing for the privatization of renewable energy. The author suggests Macron’s direct involvement in developing the Hercule plan in collaboration with Alexis Kohler, initially leading unions to believe the government would revive the nuclear sector. Still, in reality, the plan sought to exploit state ownership of this sector to socialize losses while transferring profits to privatized entities. According to Endeweld, Macron’s energy doctrine is clear: destabilizing the public entity EDF and limiting its nuclear activities while funding them at taxpayers’ expense, with no say from the public in managing the organization.
Lastly, the author hints at a covert intent to dismantle the French nuclear industry and suggests some factions within France may be inclined to rely on China for nuclear energy production. He discusses the European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) project in England, initially a French-Chinese collaboration before British stakeholders ousted the Chinese. Furthermore, he notes France’s attempts to compel Chinese companies to address the aging issues of its nuclear plants.
U.S. Movements
Endeweld outlines systematic American tools designed to undermine French interests:
Firstly, a significant portion of the book focuses on the United States’ role in destabilizing major French industrial groups, including Airbus, Alstom, and Alcatel. Over the past thirty years, especially post-2008 financial crisis, the U.S. exploited legal instruments, employing the principle of extraterritoriality under anti-corruption laws, alongside extensive intelligence resources, particularly cyber-espionage, to target French economic interests.
Secondly, the author describes the American objective of placing Airbus under Boeing’s guardianship. He portrays former Airbus CEO Tom Enders as a pro-American ally with aspirations to lead Boeing. In 2014, Enders undertook a significant financial audit concerning commercial agents dealing with Airbus to adhere to stringent U.S. anti-corruption regulations, ultimately destabilizing the company. Endeweld argues that Airbus could have fallen into Boeing’s grasp if not for manufacturing issues that impeded Boeing.
The author asserts the American goal is to subjugate Airbus under Boeing, transforming it into a subordinate contractor. Airbus has faced fines totaling 3.6 billion euros in recent years, and more severe penalties could be imposed by U.S. authorities moving forward, indicating the unwillingness of American interests to allow the European firm to escape easily, with imminent personnel repercussions lurking for its leaders due to possible inclusion on U.S. corruption sanction lists.
Thirdly, the author discusses U.S. involvement in the “industrial disarmament” of France, using Alstom as a case study. He attributes the loss of major strategic French companies not solely to American pressure but also to French leaders who conflated private and national strategic interests over the past three decades, ignoring public sentiment.
Fourthsly, Endeweld exposes instances of American espionage at French ports, emphasizing France’s geographic significance as a nexus for submarine cables, making it a target for global intelligence agencies, including the NSA. The author discloses secret contracts between the NSA and France’s external intelligence agency, DGSE, facilitating surveillance operations on undersea cables in French ports.
He posits that one of France’s vulnerabilities in this realm lies in the DGSE’s failure to monitor American economic interests, as efforts were abandoned following failures in the 1980s, leading to the FBI uncovering French covert operatives infiltrating U.S. firms. According to a senior French intelligence official, French agencies no longer dare to spy on American activities fearing repercussions from the U.S. Meanwhile, Macron faces criticism for overseeing sensitive files at Airbus, Alstom, and Lafarge during his tenure as Economy Minister, which experienced unprecedented external acquisitions.
In conclusion, the author suggests that there is a new Cold War between the United States and China. Unlike the previous Cold War against the Soviet Union, where the U.S. needed a robust Europe to form a solid bloc, the current dynamics reveal that a strong Europe can act as a brake on American policies more than as a supportive asset. The author recalls Trump’s declaration to CBS in July 2018, labeling the European Union as a “foe.”
Source: Marc Endeweld, L`Emprise: Macron pris au piège d une nouvelle guerre froide économique, Points Documents, Paris, 2023
