A high-level delegation from the Taliban government in Afghanistan, including officials from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Economy, and Higher Education, visited Japan for a week starting on February 15, 2025. The visit was organized by the Nippon Foundation, a donor organization, with the stated goal of contributing to the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
Officially, the Japanese government has not commented on the visit, which is the first under Taliban rule since August 2021. However, Latif Nazari, the Afghan Deputy Minister of Economy who was part of the delegation, described it as a step in communicating with the world for a strong, unified, and developed Afghanistan. The context and circumstances of the visit suggest that it goes beyond the stated humanitarian and development goals, and carries a set of implications. It aims to achieve a number of objectives for both Japan and Afghanistan.
Implications of the Visit:
The most prominent implications of the Taliban delegation’s visit to Japan are:
Japan’s Continued Engagement with the Taliban: Geopolitical changes and evolving mutual interests have forced Japan to adopt a pragmatic approach. This has manifested in maintaining informal relations with the Taliban, continuing humanitarian aid, and holding direct meetings to discuss development needs. In February 2024, Takayoshi Kuromaya, the head of the Japanese diplomatic mission in Kabul, called for global engagement with Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Mawlawi Abdulkabir, the former Deputy Prime Minister for Political Affairs and Minister of Refugees and Returnees, stated in early September 2024 that Japan would be an important part of Afghanistan’s foreign policy.
Participation in Lifting the Sanctions on the Taliban: Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, stated that the Taliban delegation’s visit complements Japan’s efforts to work with the international community to encourage the Taliban to make policy changes to protect human rights. He emphasized that senior Taliban officials participating in the delegation are expected to also speak with officials from the Japanese Foreign Ministry. This indicates official diplomatic engagement from the Tokyo government in organizing this visit and overseeing a part of its program.
Failure of Western Pressure to Isolate the Taliban: Japan’s move, as an ally of the United States, reflects the failure of Western pressure in dealing with the Taliban. After more than three and a half years in power, the Taliban has maintained internal cohesion and a firm stance on its political system, resisting human rights calls related to women, media, and civil society, and has countered threats from the Islamic State Khorasan branch while not yielding on the future of armed jihadist groups within its territory, which it has successfully managed to control.
Taliban’s Success in Penetrating New Geopolitical Regions: This marks the first time that a delegation from the Taliban government has been welcomed in a country outside the Middle East and Central Asia, excluding Russia, China, and Norway. Tokyo thus provides a new window to enhance the Taliban’s diplomatic momentum towards achieving international recognition of its legitimacy by diversifying its geographical presence worldwide and exploring potential opportunities for future partnerships.
Shared Objectives:
Beyond bilateral interests, such as raising diplomatic representation and recognition of the Taliban government’s legitimacy, the visit represents a shared response to geopolitical developments between Japan and Afghanistan towards the two central powers: China and the United States. The visit presents an opportunity for Tokyo to counter Chinese influence by challenging it in Kabul. For the Taliban, it represents a step towards Washington by building ties with its ally, Japan. This is evident in the following:
- Countering Chinese Influence – Japan’s Objective in Afghanistan: The expansion of Beijing’s influence raises concerns for Japan, which is apprehensive about Chinese moves towards neighboring countries, including those as far away as Afghanistan. This apprehension has been amplified by the vacuum left by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, leaving China as the largest foreign investor in the country. This has encouraged the Taliban to accelerate its steps towards China to regain its historical position in the dragon’s economy. The Taliban has declared its desire to join the Belt and Road Initiative and expressed interest in extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to include Afghanistan. This serves the interests of Beijing, which has consistently held regular meetings with Taliban officials and was the first country in the world to appoint a formal ambassador in Kabul under its rule in September 2023. China accredited its appointed ambassador from the Taliban in January 2024, but without official recognition. This allows Beijing to open a market for its goods and exploit Afghanistan’s vital natural resources for its economy without appearing as a rogue party in relation to the international community’s position on recognizing the Taliban government.
Chinese presence in Afghanistan could negatively impact Japan’s regional balance position, especially as the Taliban’s successes in confronting terrorist threats and Western policies to isolate it encourage Beijing to proceed with its projects. Japan’s new vision, framed by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in June 2022 as “Realistic Diplomacy for a New Era,” attempts to address this by going beyond its previous approaches, which are no longer effective in balancing its relations with China and the US. This new vision adopts a new policy on humanitarian aid, which Afghanistan receives a significant portion of, by integrating this aid within Japan’s national security strategy. This means situating it within the context of strategic competition with China.
This new Japanese approach towards Beijing aligns with the US approach expressed in the “US National Security Strategy” document released in October 2022. The document identifies China as the most significant geopolitical challenge for Washington and reaffirms US commitments to its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, pledging to defend Japan under the mutual security treaty. In line with this alignment, Japan and the US, during the (2+2) meetings between their defense and foreign ministers in January 2023, confirmed that China’s growing power represents the greatest strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
In this context, Tokyo finds itself obligated to activate the diplomatic dimension as a requirement for cooperation in confronting Beijing. This involves taking the initiative to provide the Taliban with feasible alternatives for reconstruction and diplomatic representation, to preempt China, which is allied with Pakistan, from extending its influence to Afghanistan.
- Gaining Washington’s Favor – the Taliban’s Goal in Japan: The United States is a crossroads of geopolitical interests for both Japan and Afghanistan. Therefore, Tokyo will incorporate any rapprochement with the Taliban within the context of its partnership with Washington. This benefits the Taliban by enhancing its presence alongside American interests and on the fringes of its alliance map, to gain its favor and seize opportunities for international support for its legitimacy.
This argument is reinforced by the Taliban government’s affirmation on February 5, 2025, of its willingness to open a new chapter with the US administration under Donald Trump. It expressed a desire to close the chapter of war and has multiplied signals of goodwill towards the current US administration. The Taliban described Washington’s release of an Afghan prisoner in exchange for Americans held in Afghanistan on January 21, the day after Trump’s inauguration, as a “good example of resolving outstanding issues through dialogue.” It stated that it views the US moves positively as they contribute to normalizing and expanding relations between the two countries. In January, Shir Abbas Stanikzai, the Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister, declared his country’s desire to establish good relations with the United States and its readiness to be its friend.
The Taliban acknowledged the importance of US aid in addressing the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan after previously claiming its independence from such assistance. Latif Nazari, the Taliban’s Deputy Minister of Economy, stated on January 29 that the suspension of US aid by Trump’s decision led to the closure of 50 international humanitarian organizations operating in 28 provinces of Afghanistan. He urged the international community to separate humanitarian aid from political matters, despite being the same official who previously rejected Trump’s threats and claimed that the Taliban regime is completely independent and unaffected by external pressure. On November 16, Stanikzai sought international support for Kabul, specifically targeting countries that were militarily involved in Afghanistan, stating that they have a moral obligation to assist in rebuilding the country based on the Doha Agreement.
Therefore, the Afghan delegation’s visit to Tokyo provides a clear indication in this direction. The Taliban’s rapprochement with Japan reinforces its connection with Washington’s allies. This aligns with the Japanese desire, at the behest of the US, to transform into a geopolitical center of gravity in the Indo-Pacific region that considers American interests in confronting rival powers, particularly China.
Washington’s Stance:
The Taliban’s visit to Japan is an opportunity to gauge both sides’ readiness to provide the support they expect from each other. This is unlikely to be hindered, if not encouraged, by the United States. Trump seems less concerned with upholding democratic and human rights values and more preoccupied with economic returns, especially since his administration signed the agreement with the Taliban in February 2020 for the withdrawal of NATO forces, paving the way for their return to power.
Here, the understandings between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump during their meeting at the White House on February 7, 2025, reinforce the strength of the US-Japan partnership. They agreed to balance their trade relationship and encourage Japanese investment in the United States. A joint statement issued by them criticized “China’s threats and provocations.” This reflects Japan’s freedom to develop its diplomatic relations towards the “secondary challenge” represented by the Taliban, in a way that responds to its shared strategy for confronting the “primary challenge” represented by China. As a result, the Taliban’s success in managing the entanglement of geopolitical interests could tempt the Trump administration to reconsider its demands regarding the lifting of sanctions imposed on the Taliban as a first step.
