The decision by the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, on January 17, 2024, to establish a high-level African Union committee concerned with Sudan, comprising three prominent African figures chaired by Mohamed Ben Chambas, the AU Special Representative for Disarmament, along with Spesiosa Indira Kazibwe, former Vice President of Uganda, and Ambassador Francisco Madeira, former Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson to Somalia and head of the AU Mission in Somalia, represents a new move by the African organization towards the Sudanese war crisis as it enters its second year. The crisis shows no clear signs of imminent resolution. This is not the first action taken by the African Union, as it has been monitoring the Sudanese crisis since its outbreak, undertaking various initiatives and communications without significant results.
According to the decision, the members of the high-level African Union committee will work with all Sudanese stakeholders, including civilian and warring military factions, as well as regional and international actors such as IGAD, the United Nations, and the Arab League. Their aim is to facilitate a comprehensive process to swiftly restore peace, constitutional order, and stability in Sudan. The AU Commissioner has called upon all Sudanese stakeholders and the international community to provide necessary cooperation and support to the committee members for the successful implementation of their mandate.
The timing of the decision to establish the high-level mechanism by the African Union Commission follows the failure of the recent IGAD summit in East Africa in January 2024 to achieve expected outcomes in resolving the Sudanese conflict. This failure occurred especially after Sudan’s decision to freeze its membership in IGAD, prompting the African Union to intervene through a special committee on the Sudanese file in an attempt to make a breakthrough and engage with all Sudanese stakeholders to restore constitutional order in Sudan and resume the transitional period.
Initial readings of the high-level mechanism suggest that it brings together prominent figures from the continent, including former vice presidents of states, international officials, and individuals with deep expertise in African issues. This composition may enable them to make some breakthrough towards a comprehensive solution to the Sudanese crisis, potentially facilitating negotiations or proposing initiatives that could halt the war and ease the political transition and management.
The Sudanese government and the African Union’s efforts: reception and conditions
The African Union’s involvement in Sudanese crises is not new, with extensive experiences in recent and distant history. This includes the hybrid operation in Darfur, western Sudan, which was conducted after consultations between the African Union and the United Nations with the Sudanese government in Addis Ababa on June 12, 2007. The outcomes of these consultations were fully affirmed in a Security Council meeting with Sudan’s President in Khartoum on June 17, 2007. Another significant initiative was the high-level committee for peace in Darfur established in April 2009, chaired by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, and including former presidents of Burundi and Nigeria, which achieved a breakthrough in subsequent negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan after separation.
Despite suspending Sudan’s membership in the African Union on October 27, 2021, in protest against decisions by the Sudanese authorities on October 25, 2021, considered by the African Union as an overthrow of the civilian government, the African Union remained engaged in efforts aimed at ending the Sudanese crisis. This engagement intensified after the outbreak of war in mid-April 2023, amidst significant challenges faced by African and other initiatives in recent months. The African Union’s systems allow it to engage in issues of war, conflict, and security, even in member states with frozen memberships such as Sudan. Consequently, the Union promptly dispatched a mission to Khartoum to engage with all parties to find a peaceful solution to the political crisis resulting from decisions made by the Sudanese authorities. Shortly after the outbreak of fighting between the army and Rapid Support Forces in May 2023, the African Union announced the adoption of a six-point plan to resolve the crisis, including a permanent ceasefire, demilitarizing Khartoum, relocating combatants, deploying African forces to guard strategic institutions, addressing the humanitarian crisis, and initiating a political process for a final settlement.
Then came the third move by the African Union to establish the high-level mechanism, which was welcomed by the Sudanese government and received by the Head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in the administrative capital, Port Sudan. Al-Burhan affirmed Sudan’s confidence in the African Union and its potential contributions to finding solutions. He briefed the delegation on the repercussions of the Rapid Support Forces rebellion and violations committed against civilian citizens, emphasizing that the solution lies in withdrawing these forces from occupied towns and villages, restoring displaced residents and their properties, and respecting their sanctities. Al-Burhan also briefed the mechanism delegation on political developments in the country since October 25, 2021, stressing that what occurred at that time was not a military coup but rather a dissolution of the partnership between the military component and political forces that hindered reaching consensus. Al-Burhan conditioned his acceptance of African Union efforts to resolve the country’s conflict on the restoration of Sudan’s full membership in the African Union, a demand consistent with his perspective that the suspension of Sudan’s membership in the Union was invalid and incorrect.
Al-Burhan’s requirement linking acceptance of African solutions to the restoration of Sudan’s full membership in the African Union could undermine these African efforts and close the door to them. However, some argue that the Union’s current efforts are based on its systems and regulations that allow engagement in aspects related to peace and security in any African country, even those with suspended memberships like Sudan. Thus, the African Union currently deals with the Sudanese war as part of its tasks related to maintaining peace and security in the region.
The African Union Initiative: Progress and Outcomes
The high-level mechanism of the African Union concerned with the Sudanese crisis has commenced its operations in earnest following the conclusion of the regular African Union Summit held in Addis Ababa on February 17-18, 2024. It has engaged in multiple meetings involving the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security, Bankole Adeoye, the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Sudan, Ramtan Al-Hamamra, the US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer, and the Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Taye Atske Selassie. The latter confirmed to the mechanism the urgent need for a comprehensive peace process owned by Sudanese and led by the African Union to address the current crisis. Ethiopia expressed its support for the mechanism as an African-led initiative, expected to achieve a breakthrough in garnering international support and regional stakeholders behind it.
In Addis Ababa itself, the mechanism team continued its dialogue with representatives of the Rapid Support Forces and the Civilian Democratic Forces Coordination “Tajaddod,” which proposed a roadmap for ending the war and declaring principles aimed at launching a Sudanese-owned political process that addresses the roots of the crisis, ends the war, and rebuilds the state on a civil and democratic basis. The African Union delegation expressed appreciation for “Tajaddod’s” efforts and ensured ongoing close consultations to expedite efforts to end the war and build peace in Sudan.
Additionally, the mechanism met with the Rapid Support Forces to discuss ceasefire, humanitarian aid delivery, and the initiation of the political process. According to the latter’s statement on the “X” platform, its negotiator presented the mechanism with its vision for ending the war and establishing a comprehensive political solution in Sudan through agreement on the basic principles of the solution and addressing the roots of the Sudanese crisis. The Rapid Support representative clarified negotiations in Jeddah and Bahrain, alongside initiatives aiming to halt the war.
The mechanism completed its rounds with a series of meetings with Sudanese political forces in the administrative capital, Port Sudan, such as the Reform Now Movement led by Ghazi Salah al-Din and the Popular Congress Party “Hizb al-Hassan al-Turabi,” as well as directors of government universities including Al-Nilain, Al Jazeera, Al Baitana, and Sennar. They provided insights into the extensive damage caused by the Rapid Support Forces to university campuses, research centers, libraries, facilities, and looting and destruction of educational hospitals in the capital, Khartoum, and in Darfur, Al Jazeera, and Sennar states. The mechanism conveyed details from university directors to the African Union and contributed to facilitating joint cooperation between Sudanese and African universities.
The mechanism also conducted several diplomatic tours and consultations with several presidents and officials, including the President of South Sudan, Salva Kiir Mayardit, and the President of Djibouti, Ismail Omar Guelleh, as well as regional and international parties, including the Executive Secretary of the International Development Governmental Organization “IGAD,” Workneh Gebeyehu. Discussions focused on advancing the peace process in Sudan, with IGAD committed to working towards a permanent peaceful solution based on vital cooperation between IGAD and the African Union.
During the meeting with the Djiboutian President, the current chair of the IGAD Heads of State group, the mechanism presented ways to allow further coordination and alignment of various initiatives launched regionally, continentally, and internationally to restore peace and stability in Sudan. The sides agreed on the necessity of inviting parties to the Sudanese crisis to commit to a ceasefire during the blessed month of Ramadan, expandable in the future to a permanent ceasefire, as a prelude to political negotiations and the formation of a civilian government in Sudan.
Subsequently, the African Union mechanism delegation moved to the Egyptian capital, Cairo, where it met with the Forces of Freedom and Change/Democratic Bloc, listened to their vision calling for expanded participation in reaching a comprehensive political solution to the war issue. In Cairo, the mechanism also consulted with the Arab League and senior officials in the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The mechanism requested close cooperation from the Arab League on Sudanese affairs and briefed the Secretary-General on the outcomes of its meeting with the Sudanese Sovereignty Council President in Port Sudan. The Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, stressed to the high-level mechanism the urgency of reaching a rapid ceasefire agreement to save the Sudanese state from extensive infrastructure damage, especially in Khartoum, due to the ongoing fighting, and to save the deteriorating humanitarian situation. He highlighted the efforts of the League in this regard with international partners, led by the African Union, emphasizing the need for cooperation and coordination with the Government of the Republic of Sudan to succeed in these efforts.
A highlight of the Cairo meetings was the high-level mechanism’s meeting with the delegation of the National Congress Party, the former ruling party ousted by the December 2018 Sudanese revolution. The National Congress Party delegation, composed of former ministers Osama Faisal and Amira Al-Fadil, discussed the Sudanese crisis with the African Union high-level mechanism, informing them that the meeting was to understand what the mechanism wished to propose to them. They clarified they were not authorized to discuss the agenda put forward by the mechanism, advising the mechanism members to meet with the party leadership inside Sudan.
The meeting of the African Union mechanism with the National Congress Party delegation indicates the nature of the solution plan adopted by the mechanism to solve the Sudanese war issue, proposing an inclusive solution involving all Sudanese political forces, including the former ruling National Congress Party. This suggests that the mechanism will not base its plans on the legacy of the previous tripartite mechanism before the war, which included the former UN mission in Sudan (UNAMIS), an African Union representative, and IGAD. It means the African Union is not interested in excluding any Sudanese party, even the former ruling party, believing that achieving any political settlement in the country requires the participation of all Sudanese without exception. The mechanism is determined not to exclude any political forces and is ready to dialogue with all, which could put it in a difficult position with revolutionary forces opposed to any role for the former regime forces.
The main reservations about the African Union mechanism meeting with the National Congress Party were from the Coordination of Democratic and Civil Forces “Tajaddod,” where the spokesperson affirmed that members of the National Congress Party are citizens who should not have their Sudanese citizenship revoked. Therefore, they will be available to participate in drafting the constitution, an opportunity for the National Congress Party to open a new phase. Whether they participate in a political process shaping the country’s future or are part of transitional power structures is fundamentally rejected.
The conclusion from the regional meetings of the high-level African Union mechanism with the Sudanese government, governments of several countries, political party leaders, international organizations, and civil society organizations in several capitals is that the mechanism closely scrutinized views and ideas on stopping the war, restoring peace, and stability in Sudan. Its vision crystallized from all previous movements in support of negotiations between the Sudanese government and the Rapid Support Forces in Jeddah aimed at a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons and urged those in charge to expedite talks with full participation of the African Union and IGAD. The mechanism sees the urgent need for a comprehensive Sudanese political dialogue, allowing Sudanese to exchange views on a common vision for a peaceful and stable Sudan, agreeing on a transitional process allowing Sudanese to address deep historical causes underlying the current conflict, once and for all, and start the long and difficult process of rebuilding their torn country.
African Union Efforts Towards Sudan: Future Readings
The high-level mechanism formed by the African Union Commissioner to deal with the Sudanese crisis has managed in a short time to reach all parties involved in the Sudanese equation, sitting with anyone who can offer a vision or approach to the solution, from Sudanese and others. It tried to propose an approach based on not excluding anyone, thus observers saw the novelty in its work as positive neutrality and its distance from all Sudanese political and civil components, not calling for exclusion of anyone unlike all previous initiatives that focused on certain forces excluding others.
Therefore, the high-level mechanism has dispelled the accusations that plagued previous initiatives such as bias towards one party and lack of neutrality in dealing with crisis parties. Therefore, it can be said that the mechanism’s efforts in this regard enabled it to crystallize an initial vision for a solution that could be proposed to all parties and lead to achieving peace and stability in the country. The mechanism’s initial consultations with Sudanese forces focused on peaceful methods, and the urgent need for a comprehensive political dialogue, allowing Sudanese to exchange views on a common vision for a stable Sudan and agreeing on a transitional process.
The high-level mechanism’s arrival at this stage, with Sudanese parties accepting its movements without notable sharp criticisms, means that the African Union’s experiences with Sudan continue to achieve an acceptable success similar to many previous experiences. Previous African Union efforts have helped alleviate the intensity of international intervention in Sudanese affairs, suggesting that the current African initiative to resolve the Sudanese crisis will be confined to one of the following three scenarios:
Success scenario of the mechanism in persuading crisis parties to the proposed solution vision, culminating in turning the page on war and eliminating conflict causes, reaching a mutually agreeable solution leading to ceasefire and organizing free elections where people choose their government at all levels.
Scenario one: One of the parties definitively wins the war in its favor amidst the current battlefield fluctuation, which has recently favored the Sudanese army. This means that the victorious party will impose its conditions on the defeated one, shaping the next phase in Sudan according to its vision. This also implies surpassing the efforts of the high-level mechanism.
Scenario two: The phase of activism, consultations, and dialogues continues for a long time, attempting to persuade all Sudanese equation parties to adopt the high-level mechanism’s vision. This is amidst the parties’ stubbornness and their reluctance to move from their positions, and the mechanism’s failure to soften these stances. This indicates the continuation of the war for a longer period until the mechanism reaches a middle ground between the parties, potentially leading to war cessation and the beginning of a peace process.
