Imagine the power of nuclear reactors, the complexity of deep-sea drilling platforms, or the sensitive infrastructure of national security systems. These are examples of highly complex and impactful technologies, but they carry the potential for disasters. Even the most rigorous risk assessments may fail to detect hidden flaws and risks due to the limitations of human knowledge. Engineering tests and mathematical models cannot predict every possibility.
Yet, there is hope in managing and mitigating technological risks, as John Downer explores in his 2023 book, Logical Accidents: How to Manage the Risks of Complex Catastrophic Technologies? Despite the intricacy and sensitivity of jet aircraft systems, experts have managed to control and make them extremely safe. This is due to the vast fleet of airplanes, which allows for detailed accident statistics and problem-solving.
Perhaps the same approach can be applied to other high-risk technologies by sacrificing some power for safety, thus paving the way to a more sustainable future. However, this is not an easy task. Downer’s book takes us on a journey through the world of knowledge and technology, exploring how experts have succeeded in achieving high levels of safety in fields like civil aviation and jet aircraft. The question is: can these lessons be applied to nuclear reactors?
The Fukushima Disaster
The book examines the Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011, which introduced the concept of “catastrophic technologies”—technically complex systems that require a high degree of safety and security. It discusses the challenges of managing risks associated with such technologies. For example, the financial cost estimates of the Fukushima disaster significantly increased over time, reaching hundreds of billions of dollars by 2017, without accounting for broader indirect costs. There were also difficulties in managing information about risks during such incidents, as stakeholders tend to delay or withhold harmful information, assuming media attention will fade. The use of unofficial metrics often adds confusion rather than clarity, as they ignore critical scientific facts.
The book traces the historical development of the concept of safety in complex systems, highlighting key conceptual and historical developments. Initially, studies were conducted in the 19th century on the lifespan of moving load elements like railways. Then, in the 1920s, Bell Laboratories created a dedicated quality department to address the performance variations of vacuum tubes, leading to the establishment of safety and quality standards.
Downer points out that the language used in nuclear safety pledges can be misleading. Major organizations rarely assert that catastrophic failures are impossible, but rather that they are highly unlikely. While jet aircraft have achieved high levels of safety and confidence, applying this to systems like nuclear reactors—where the numbers are fewer—suggests a very low likelihood of disasters.
The author also highlights the complexities of achieving the necessary safety in catastrophic technologies. Experts analyze failure predictions and ensure the independence of different system components, which can be influenced by expert behavior. Furthermore, Downer proposes using service data to understand safety factors and the challenges of applying the concept of ceteris paribus (holding other factors constant) in complex operational environments. The importance of developing safety concepts in engineering is also emphasized, along with how these efforts can enhance the performance and sustainability of vital safety technologies.
The Fukushima disaster taught bitter lessons about the limits of nuclear technology and the need to change our approach. The catastrophe revealed an overconfidence in the safety claims of nuclear power plants and a lack of preparedness for worst-case scenarios. Many countries believed the likelihood of major nuclear disasters was so low that they excluded them from their emergency plans. However, Fukushima proved that the impossible can happen and that expert-based assessments can be wrong. Thus, the key lesson is clear: “There are no absolute guarantees in a world of risks.” Governments and companies must radically reassess their standards and emergency plans, taking the most extreme scenarios into account.
The Airplane Safety Model
The book discusses how the safety of jet aircraft is a unique and scientifically fascinating phenomenon. Jet aircraft boast exceptionally high safety levels. While there have been some non-fatal incidents, jet crash rates are extremely low compared to other modes of transportation, making them a safe and efficient way to transport passengers over long distances. For example, the Airbus A380 can carry a massive 320,000 liters of fuel, enabling it to travel long distances without frequent refueling. Some passenger planes, like the Boeing 737-200, have been in regular operation for over 47 years, showcasing their durability and ability to endure long periods of service.
Despite a few non-fatal incidents, such as Air France Flight 66, jet crashes are rare compared to other transport modes. For example, the Boeing 747, since its introduction in 1970, has been involved in only 34 accidents, resulting in a limited number of casualties. This is after completing over 17 million flights and covering a cumulative distance of more than 42 billion nautical miles. Still, this exceptional safety record does not mean that jet aircraft are entirely free of risks. Although rare, accidents can result in significant loss of life and property.
Jet aircraft face major safety challenges. Therefore, the book offers a comprehensive overview of aviation safety, from design to operation, analyzing notable accidents and the key concepts used to ensure flight safety. It highlights the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) philosophy of “multi-layered safe design” and the importance of addressing human errors and their impact on aircraft safety systems.
The book also examines natural accident theory and compares it to the argument linking uncertainty in testing and models, demonstrating how these concepts contribute to understanding aviation accidents and improving future aviation safety. Through detailed analyses of notable aviation incidents, such as British Airways Flight 009, the book explores the causes and factors behind these accidents and the safety lessons learned from them. It also underscores the importance of risk management and strict security policies in the aviation industry to minimize the risks of air disasters.
Challenges of Commercial Aviation:
The process of launching new commercial aircraft is strictly overseen by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which is responsible for setting a range of stringent rules and regulations that aircraft manufacturers must follow to ensure the safety and reliability of new planes. This process includes a thorough examination of vast quantities of documents, engineering drawings, and technical reports, as well as conducting complex tests and calculations to evaluate the likelihood of failure or malfunction in various aircraft systems, such as engines, wings, and electrical systems.
However, this process faces certain challenges, such as the unclear definitions of some technical terms and the difficulty in performing precise calculations for failure probabilities. Despite these hurdles, the FAA works to enforce strict procedures to ensure the highest level of safety for new aircraft. The goal is to allow only those planes that meet all necessary safety standards to be launched, ensuring the safety and security of passengers and crew. Air safety statistics have shown a significant decline in commercial aircraft accidents over the past few decades, a development attributed to technological advancements and improvements in safety standards, maintenance, and training.
Despite other challenges, such as human factors, weather conditions, and terrorist acts, the future of commercial aviation looks promising with ongoing technological developments and a focus on enhancing safety. The author points out that bird strikes are one of the main challenges to aviation safety, particularly for commercial aircraft. The U.S. Air Force, which frequently operates at lower altitudes, incurs relatively higher costs due to the frequency of these collisions, resulting in significant human and material losses.
Research shows that birds are not effectively able to avoid fast-moving objects, which sometimes leads to dangerous accidents. As a result, regulations regarding engine safety evaluations have been tightened, including new tests involving an additional category of larger birds. Moreover, research indicates that bird traffic density decreases as aircraft ascend, reducing the likelihood of collisions at higher altitudes.
Safety Standards and Innovation:
The book highlights that the evolution of aviation safety rules and standards requires continuous monitoring of new technologies and engineering updates. It emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and improvement in aviation to ensure flight safety and reduce accident risks. The author argues that innovations in aircraft design come at the expense of safety. While impressive, technologies such as composite materials and revolutionary designs for military and supersonic aircraft increase the likelihood of malfunctions and risks.
The author also highlights issues and challenges faced by organizations and experts in fields such as engineering and design, which can affect the safety of products like aircraft. Often, organizations attempt to withhold sensitive information from the public, such as concerns and disputes among experts, by classifying them as “drafts” to avoid disclosure. In some cases, the arrogance of organizations and their overconfidence in technology’s ability to overcome all problems have been observed, ignoring the possibility of errors despite all efforts. This underscores the challenges of accurately modeling and analyzing complex systems and sometimes concealing these issues from the public. These points illustrate the importance of transparency and humility in dealing with complex technical challenges and the necessity of acknowledging the limitations of human knowledge and the potential for errors to ensure maximum safety in sensitive industries like aviation.
The author concludes by noting that since the beginning of the aviation era, jet planes have become a symbol of technological progress and exceptional reliability. They are often referenced in discussions of nuclear reactor safety as proof that complex technologies can be controlled if designed and operated correctly. But is this comparison truly accurate? While there are indeed some similarities between aircraft and reactors—both representing complex engineering challenges and requiring high levels of operational safety for decades—there are also fundamental differences in their reliability.
The operational experience of jet aircraft far exceeds that of nuclear reactors. Tens of thousands of planes fly daily, compared to fewer than 500 operational nuclear reactors worldwide. This vast difference in numbers allows for the collection of more precise and comprehensive data on aircraft reliability, enabling engineers to identify weaknesses and make systematic improvements to designs over time.
As for nuclear reactors, the limited data and large design differences make it difficult to draw reliable lessons and apply them broadly. Therefore, despite repeated claims of the reliability of advanced reactors, significant doubt remains about the accuracy of these claims, especially when compared to the proven safety record of jet aircraft. Unfortunately, decision-makers ignored this valid skepticism before the Fukushima disaster, leading to devastating consequences.
Source:
John Downer, Rational Accidents: Reckoning with Catastrophic Technologies, MIT Press, 2023.
