The leftist Brazilian president had announced his support for the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. The election of the Republican billionaire raises concerns among his team about repercussions for Brazil’s economy and climate agenda, as well as a strengthening of the extreme right.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had made it clear that he would have preferred to see Kamala Harris in the White House. On Friday, November 1, the leftist Brazilian leader even declared his support for the Democratic candidate in the U.S. presidential election, deeming her victory “safer” for democracy. He used the opportunity to criticize—without naming Donald Trump—the “hatred” and “lies” disseminated “every day in the United States but also in Europe and Latin America,” referring to them as “fascism and [Nazism] operating again under another face.”
These scathing statements gave way to a more “protocol-like” tone that Lula adopted in his message to the Republican billionaire via social media on Wednesday, November 6, just over an hour after his victory was confirmed, as noted by the daily G1.
“Congratulations to President Donald Trump,” wrote the Brazilian leader. “The world needs dialogue and joint work to achieve more peace, development, and prosperity.” Later that day, he expressed hope for a “civilized” coexistence with his future counterpart.
Nevertheless, Donald Trump’s return to power is viewed as bad news for Lula, according to the Brazilian press, which anticipates a series of repercussions in the fields of economy, diplomacy, and the political landscape of the country.
Economic Risks
“The situation will be more delicate for the Brazilian economy,” predicts a specialist interviewed by the daily O Estado de São Paulo. Donald Trump’s promises to expel illegal migrants en masse, increase tariffs, and reduce taxes for businesses and individuals will deepen public debt and the American deficit, which will consequently lead to rising inflation, he explains. This will force the U.S. Federal Reserve to implement a restrictive monetary policy, making the dollar stronger.
As a result, experts interviewed by O Globo “are already discussing repercussions on the inflation of everyday products” in Brazil, which may also see a decrease in its exports to its second-largest trading partner. Additionally, an “aggressive tariff policy” from the U.S. toward China, the largest buyer of Brazilian raw materials, “could weaken global trade, thereby harming the country’s sales.”
Lula’s Climate Agenda Shaken
On the diplomatic front, “the pillars of Brazilian foreign policy, […] focused on the climate agenda”—one of Lula’s main battle points on the international stage—“as well as the pursuit of peace in conflicts and the reform of global governance” are “directly shaken or weakened,” according to Brazilian diplomats interviewed by CNN Brasil.
Lula’s team and environmental experts expect a weakening of negotiations at the 30th World Climate Conference (COP30), which Brazil will host next year in the city of Belém, in the Amazon, as highlighted in another article by O Globo.
A notorious climate skeptic and proponent of fossil fuels, Donald Trump has announced his intention to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement again, a move he already made during his first term before Joe Biden reversed the decision. “This is a real setback,” laments former minister Carlos Minc, who led the Ministry of the Environment during Lula’s second presidential term (2007-2011), in an interview with the newspaper. “If it was already difficult to make progress on climate issues without Trump, imagine now […] This will require a new strategy and intensified efforts.”
Another consequence of Donald Trump’s return to power is “the possible rupture” of the promise made last year by Joe Biden to allocate $500 million to the Amazon Fund, established in Brazil in 2008 to help the country protect its rainforest. Only 10% of the promised funding has been disbursed by Washington so far.
The “Enthusiasm” of the Bolsonaro Camp
Donald Trump’s election has been celebrated by former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022) and his allies. “Besides promoting conservative agendas on a global scale, the Brazilian far-right expects this to increase pressures,” particularly for the annulment of the former leader’s ineligibility, analyzes the information portal Uol. However, this scenario remains unlikely, according to Folha de São Paulo.
Experts interviewed by Correio Braziliense believe that the Bolsonaro camp will use Donald Trump’s victory “as a tool to attract more allies and strengthen the right-wing discourse, thereby intensifying the division within the country.”
Even within the Brazilian presidential palace, there are fears that Donald Trump could “transform the White House into a kind of operational hub for strengthening extreme right-wing groups in Latin America, including in Brazil,” believes an editorialist from Uol.
