In the midst of the accelerating race for technological dominance among major powers, Western companies face an unprecedented challenge in the face of China’s rise. Following the remarkable progress made by the Chinese company “Deep Seek” in this field, which has raised a wave of questions in global technological and economic circles, American company “Open AI” announced its “Deep Research” tool on February 3, 2025, in an attempt to maintain its leadership in the face of increasing Chinese competition and to enhance “ChatGPT.” This announcement comes as a direct response to the emergence of advanced Chinese AI models such as “Deep Seek R1” developed by “Deep Seek,” “Queen 2.5 Max” produced by “Alibaba,” and “Kimmy K 1.5” developed by “Moonshot AI,” which have shown remarkable efficiency surpassing “Deep Seek” and a parallel ability to compete. As a result, this development has raised questions about the nature of the strategies that Western companies will adopt to counter China’s technological rise, and the extent to which this competitive trend will impact the global technological system. While major companies race to develop more advanced AI models, other dimensions of the competition emerge, such as expanding the efficient use of these technologies in terms of cost; hence, the fundamental question arises: Will the United States be able to maintain its leadership, or will China reshape the rules of technological dominance?
Dimensions of Competition:
The competition between the United States and China in the field of artificial intelligence reflects transformations that go beyond the technological aspect, extending its impact to economic, geopolitical, and strategic dimensions. This is evident in the following:
1- Electronic Chip Manufacturing: The United States still holds a competitive advantage in this field, but China is experiencing rapid progress that may lead to a reshaping of power dynamics in the future. The restrictions imposed by the United States on China, which included a ban on the export of advanced chips such as (NVIDIA H100), have pushed Chinese companies to innovate alternative solutions, such as using (H800) from “NVIDIA” in the development of AI systems. “NVIDIA” designed the (H800) to have a performance that is 10% to 30% lower in some tasks compared to its latest chips, which may lead to increased costs. However, even with this slowdown, companies like “Tencent” estimated that using the “H800” would reduce the training time of their models from 11 days to just 4 days; therefore, “NVIDIA” is supplying “Tencent,” “Alibaba,” and “Baidu” with these chips, and although they have not yet been supplied in large quantities, Chinese companies are preparing to exploit them to accelerate AI development. A prominent example of this is “ByteDance,” the owner of the “TikTok” app, which is one of the largest buyers of “NVIDIA” chips in Asia. “ByteDance” has surpassed major companies like “Alibaba” and “Baidu” in terms of its purchase volume. These investments from “ByteDance,” which include allocating $12 billion for AI infrastructure in 2025, reflect the strong and ongoing demand for AI chips in the Chinese market.
In its efforts to reduce dependence on American company technologies, “Huawei” is also focusing on developing its own AI processors, such as the “Ascend” series, including the “Ascend 910” processor. These processors generally aim to improve data processing efficiency in AI applications such as deep learning and big data analysis. Despite these efforts, “Huawei” faces significant challenges in expanding within the AI market, as its processors accounted for only 6% of the market in China during the first half of 2023. In contrast, “NVIDIA” dominated the market with a 90% market share, reflecting the significant superiority of “NVIDIA’s” technologies in this field. The difference in market shares can be attributed to a combination of factors, with the most prominent being “NVIDIA’s” investment in developing advanced processors, such as the “Tensor Core” units used in AI applications. In this context, the launch of the new generation of “Blackwell” processors on March 18, 2024, reflects a trend towards improving processor performance and increasing their efficiency in accelerating AI operations, which may contribute to enhancing the company’s competitive position. In addition, “Huawei” faces restrictions due to American sanctions that affect its ability to access some advanced technological components.
2- STEM Education: This term refers to an educational model that focuses on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, aiming to develop analytical skills, problem-solving, and innovation in these vital fields. According to a report issued by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University in 2021, China is clearly surpassing the United States in this arena, as its universities are graduating five times the number of graduates in these fields compared to their American counterparts. The report indicated that by 2025, Chinese universities will grant over 77,000 doctoral degrees in STEM fields, compared to approximately 40,000 degrees in the United States. This difference is due to long-term strategic investments made by China in education and research infrastructure, which have attracted an increasing number of students to study these fields, benefiting from an advanced academic environment and modern research facilities. Despite the distinction of the American education system in its ability to innovate and the excellence of some of its universities in international rankings, there is an urgent need to reassess the approach to STEM education. This requires the development of more attractive educational frameworks, the implementation of policies targeting the attraction and retention of talent, and the enhancement of investments in this field. The United States faces increasing challenges, including a decline in the interest of domestic students in these fields, as well as restrictions on the immigration of foreign talent, which are factors that threaten its technological superiority. This gap cannot be addressed through imposing tariffs or export restrictions to China.
3- Data Center Efficiency: Data is the fuel of artificial intelligence, and its advanced models require vast and diverse amounts for training, learning, and continuous improvement. Available data indicates that the United States currently possesses 77% of global cloud computing capacity, thanks to its giant companies such as “Amazon Web Services” (AWS), “Google Cloud,” “Meta,” and “Microsoft Azure.” In contrast, China possesses 24% of this capacity, with companies like “Alibaba,” “Huawei,” “Baidu,” and “Tencent” forming a rising and strong competitor. However, the greatest challenge that both sides may face lies in the difficulty of continuously providing new and sufficient data to train complex generative models, as the required data volume has reached unprecedented levels.
4- Energy Sovereignty: The operation of AI models and large data centers relies on enormous amounts of energy. With data centers and AI consuming an estimated 460 terawatt-hours in 2022, equivalent to 2% of global energy consumption, and with the expectation that this number will double in the United States by 2028 to reach 12% of total electricity consumption in the country, securing sustainable and cost-effective energy sources becomes crucial for ensuring the continuity of development in this field. Some reports indicate that the United States currently leads in total contracted renewable energy capacity, while China seeks to increase its commitments and investments in this field. In this context, the Chinese government invested over 43.5 billion yuan in an ambitious project called “Eastern Data, Western Computing,” which aims to build advanced and sustainable data centers to support innovations in the field of artificial intelligence.
5- Transformations in the Innovation Environment: Artificial intelligence goes beyond being a mere technological tool to become a strategic element that affects the balance of power and reshapes economic and political interactions. In the context of the innovation environment, the availability of abundant choices and resources may reduce the incentive for creativity and the search for radical solutions, while scarcity and resource constraints may pose challenges that drive individuals and institutions to develop innovative strategies to overcome obstacles. At the international level, resource-rich countries may find themselves less motivated to seek new solutions compared to countries facing technological or financial constraints, which may be more capable of leveraging innovation as a tool to overcome challenges and achieve progress.
6- Concerns of Algorithmic Colonialism and the Exacerbation of Technological Dependency: The increasing reliance of developing countries on technology produced by advanced countries, especially in the field of artificial intelligence, raises concerns that may be serious about the exacerbation of technological dependency, which could lead to what can be called “algorithmic colonialism.” This term means that countries that do not have the ability to develop their own AI technologies (Laggards) may become completely dependent on countries and companies that possess these technologies (Innovators), making them vulnerable to exploitation and control over their data, decisions, and policies.
Possible Scenarios:
The complexities of the competition between the United States and China reflect an increasing intertwining of technological, economic, and geopolitical factors, making the course of this competition uncertain. Several possible scenarios can be envisioned that reflect future development trends as follows:
1- Continued American Superiority: The United States may maintain its leadership through multiple strategies, including enhancing innovation in the semiconductor field, tightening technological restrictions on China, and leveraging strategic international alliances. However, this scenario may require addressing internal challenges, such as the shortage of specialized personnel, rising infrastructure costs, and regulatory complexities.
2- China’s Rise: China may succeed in overcoming American restrictions by developing local alternatives for electronic chips, expanding digital dominance through the “Belt and Road” initiative, and achieving breakthroughs in generative AI. However, it may face structural challenges, such as continued reliance on some Western technologies, restrictions on access to international data, and regulatory challenges.
3- Technological Balance: A relative balance of power may be achieved, with each country maintaining competitive advantages in specific areas, without either being able to achieve absolute dominance. This scenario may see new parties entering the competition, such as the European Union and India, increasing the complexity of the landscape and reducing the chances of unilateral dominance.
4- Dominance of Tech Companies: Tech giants may become the primary actor and controller of AI development, surpassing the role of countries and governments. This scenario may lead to increased monopoly and control over data, raising questions about the future of democracy and national sovereignty.
In conclusion, the competition between the United States and China in the field of artificial intelligence is a development of utmost importance, as it intricately intertwines technological, economic, and geopolitical dimensions. While each country strives to enhance its capabilities and achieve superiority, it seems that the most likely scenario in the near future is technological balance, with continued competition and increasing multipolarity; however, the future of technological dominance in the world of artificial intelligence remains open to multiple possibilities, which may depend on each side’s ability to adapt to accelerating challenges and leverage emerging opportunities, as well as the nature of alliances and partnerships that may form in the coming years. In light of the above, this competition is not limited to possessing the latest technologies but extends to the ability to utilize them in service of strategic goals and enhancing international standing; as indicators point to an increasing likelihood of technological balance in the near future, the future course remains dependent on complex factors, including the ability of both sides to adapt to accelerating variables, develop more flexible innovation systems, and build effective technological alliances; thus, the essence of technological dominance in the coming stage will not be just technological or financial superiority alone but in the ability to transform innovation into a tool for reshaping global balances, redefining the standards of superiority from possession to optimal utilization of technology in shaping the contours of the new international system.
