The war between Israel and Gaza has sparked unprecedented public reactions in the United States, with large protests filling the streets of Washington, D.C., and other cities, showing support for either side. Politically, a significant portion of the debate in the U.S. regarding this war is centered within the Democratic Party, leading to the emergence of two major opposing electoral bases: American Jews on one side and the progressive movement on the other.
Additionally, Arab and Muslim Americans, who number 3.7 million according to the Arab American Institute and are geographically dispersed across the U.S., with 90% living in urban areas including the six largest metropolitan areas (Los Angeles, Detroit, New York, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and New Jersey), are also a factor. In this context, the question arises about the impact of these Arab and Muslim Americans on President Joe Biden’s stance on the Gaza war and on the upcoming presidential election scheduled for November 2024.
Implications of the Gaza War:
Since the launch of Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, 2023, the Biden administration has maintained its steadfast support for Israel’s military response to Hamas, which has involved extensive escalation against innocent civilians in Gaza. This American support has continued despite pressure from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party to adopt a balanced approach advocating for a ceasefire. Over time, the administration has sought to adjust its political rhetoric somewhat, focusing more on protecting innocent civilians, providing humanitarian aid, and reaffirming the two-state solution as the basis for ending the conflict. This reflects an effort by the Biden administration to balance the conflicting pressures it faces, by responding to the pro-Palestinian left while maintaining its fundamental support for Tel Aviv. As time goes on, the gap between American and Israeli positions on certain operational issues has widened, but many American commentators believe that core American support for Israel is likely to remain unchanged.
Regarding Arab and Muslim communities, their leaders have announced that they are coordinating to take a unified stance against the Biden administration in the upcoming presidential election. A poll conducted by the Arab American Institute in late October 2023 showed a significant drop in support for Biden among Arab American voters, down to 17% from around 42% in 2020, marking the first time in 26 years that a majority of Arab and Muslim Americans do not express a preference for the Democratic Party. The poll also indicated that if the election were held today, 40% would vote for Trump, the leading Republican candidate, compared to about 35% who voted for him in the 2020 election.
Practically speaking, these statements or even the public opinion polls indicating a significant decline in support among Arab and Muslim Americans for the Biden administration have not changed the fact that its support for Israel continues. Among the most recent indicators of this is the U.S. Senate’s approval on February 4, 2024, of a bill strongly supported by the Biden administration, allocating $118 billion, including $14.1 billion in security assistance for Israel. It should also be noted that Israel is a close ally of the United States and is viewed by most Americans as fighting Hamas, which the U.S. classifies as a terrorist organization and continues to hold American hostages.
Limited Impact:
According to some estimates, the Biden administration might attempt to realign its approach to appeal to Arab and Muslim Americans before the presidential elections in November. However, this effort is likely to fail. On one hand, the Biden administration continues its support for Israel, as previously mentioned. On the other hand, its record on the Palestinian issue has far surpassed the previous Trump administration’s policies, reaching the point of complicity in Israel’s violations against the Palestinian people. Since taking office, the Biden administration has not implemented any significant tangible measures on the ground to resolve the Palestinian issue, merely maintaining the status quo. Therefore, it is unlikely that Arab and Muslim Americans will ease their stance toward Biden and his administration, and their support for him is expected to continue declining until the next election.
Nevertheless, it can be said that the influence of Arab and Muslim Americans in the upcoming presidential election remains modest, particularly since it is not the sole factor in shaping the course of these elections and beyond. In reality, it is merely a secondary contributing factor in the American electoral race. This is due to the following reasons:
Historical Political Experience of Arab and Muslim Americans: For decades, there has been a stereotype that the Arab and Muslim communities in the United States lack the political influence necessary to impact policy and direction of the U.S. administration. This stems from past disunity among Arab and Muslim Americans, their numbers barely exceeding 1% of the U.S. population of 339 million, and their lack of strong political action groups or influential lobbying organizations in Washington. Additionally, there is a recurring trend of rejecting contributions from Arab Americans to political campaigns, as seen in Wilson Goode’s 1983 Philadelphia mayoral race, Robert Niel’s 1986 Maryland congressional campaign, Walter Mondale’s 1984 presidential campaign, and Hillary Clinton’s 2000 Senate race, where funds were rejected on the grounds that Arab Americans were not considered full American citizens.
Lack of Focus on Foreign Policy in American Voting: While leaders and elites pay significant attention to foreign issues, what concerns the average American voter are domestic issues and how elites handle them. For Arab and Muslim American voters, their concerns extend beyond domestic matters and are influenced by developments in the Arab region, including the ongoing Palestinian issue. It is natural that a large portion of Arab Americans have shifted their support to the Democratic Party in the last two decades, with their voting patterns and party affiliation resembling those of American Muslims, given their shared historical and cultural ties. According to the Associated Press, two-thirds of Muslim voters supported Biden in 2020, the same percentage that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, 66% of them sympathize with the Democratic Party, while 13% identify as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party.
Undoubtedly, the agendas and policies of candidates affect the voting preferences of Arab and Muslim Americans. They have changed their political loyalties in the past, supporting Republicans like George W. Bush before distancing themselves from the party following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the rise of Islamophobia rhetoric amplified by Republicans after the September 11, 2001 attacks. Consequently, it was logical for most Arab and Muslim Americans to continue supporting the Democrats in the 2020 elections due to Trump’s policies, which included a travel ban from some Muslim-majority countries and the decision to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and recognize it as Israel’s capital, angering Muslims and Arabs.
Division Within American Society Regarding Biden’s Handling of the Gaza War: According to a NBC News poll conducted from November 10 to 14, 2023, nearly half of American voters believe that Israeli actions in Gaza were justified, compared to only 30% who disagree. Thus, while Biden may lose some support in key states, there is no data supporting the argument that a more critical American stance towards Israel will gain votes. Those most critical of Biden’s handling of the Gaza war are Republicans, with 70% disapproving of the Biden administration’s approach but preferring Trump.
Increased Internal Polarization Regarding Islamophobia and Anti-Semitism: In the month following Hamas’s attack on October 7, the Council on American-Islamic Relations reported a 216% increase in discrimination against Muslims in the U.S., while the Anti-Defamation League reported a 388% increase in anti-Semitic incidents since the attack. Despite the rising anti-Muslim sentiment, anti-Semitism traditionally enjoys a certain level of sensitivity in the U.S. and the West as a red line not to be crossed. Consequently, gaining sympathy from American Jews is likely to overshadow the influence of Arab and Muslim Americans in the upcoming elections, even if these groups were to form a unified voting bloc, given their relatively small proportion compared to the overall American population.
A Difficult Choice:
If anger over the situation in Gaza spreads across American streets, it could strengthen the efforts of Arab and Muslim Americans to prevent Biden from winning a second presidential term. This is particularly relevant given the concentration of Arabs and Muslims in the five swing states, which collectively account for 75 of the 538 electoral votes. Other factors may also influence American voters, such as Biden’s advancing age, internal disputes over illegal immigration, economic issues, and other concerns on the minds of voters.
Since it is unlikely that the Biden administration will change its pro-Israel stance, Arab and Muslim Americans may face a tough choice: to cast their votes for the likely Republican candidate, Trump, in order to oppose the Democratic incumbent. This is despite the fact that about 70% of them voted against Trump in the 2020 elections due to his alignment with Israel. An earlier survey by the Arab American Institute indicated that around 40% of Arab Americans might vote for Trump as a way to punish Biden. Additionally, Arab and Muslim Americans might support a third-party candidate, who could emerge by the time of the election, due to dissatisfaction with both Biden’s administration and Trump’s pro-Israel stance. This trend is reinforced by the unprecedented decline in support for the political approaches of the two dominant parties in the U.S., particularly in light of some voters’ rejection of the Biden-Trump dichotomy.
