Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, held their only debate on September 10, 2024. Among the many issues discussed—such as abortion, the economy, and immigration policy—the candidates’ foreign policy proposals were of particular interest. Key topics dominating the debate included the war in Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the crisis in Venezuela. Aside from brief mentions of Venezuela and Mexico in the immigration context, Latin America was notably absent from the U.S. presidential debate.
However, this does not imply that the Democratic or Republican candidates lack an agenda for the region. As an extension of their domestic programs and broader foreign policy visions, Harris and Trump offer markedly different approaches to Latin America. This divergence suggests different outcomes for the region depending on who wins. Thus, the question arises: which candidate offers a more favorable scenario for U.S.-Latin American political and economic relations after the November 5 election?
Trump’s Policies
For decades, successive U.S. administrations have viewed Latin America as their “backyard,” though the region has often been secondary in U.S. foreign policy. This does not, however, downplay the differences between Republican and Democratic approaches. Trump’s potential policies toward Latin American countries could include:
Potential Use of Tariffs:
During his first term, Trump employed tariffs as a pressure tool and could repeat this approach if re-elected. He has pledged to impose tariffs on certain Latin American imports and, in line with his “America First” slogan, may seek further concessions in renegotiating the USMCA, the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, which replaced NAFTA in 2020. Trump aims to prevent Chinese companies from exporting goods to the U.S. through Mexico, and he may push to relocate production back to the U.S., a goal he previously struggled to achieve. His strategy likely involves imposing tariffs and protective barriers on Mexican goods that contain Chinese components or technologies.
Increasing Immigration Restrictions:
In his previous presidency, Trump advocated for a southern border wall. His negative view on migrants, particularly from Venezuela and Haiti, means he would likely intensify deportations and tighten restrictions on undocumented immigrants, even deploying the military if necessary. This would increase pressure on Mexico and Panama, which he may look to cooperate with to curb migration across the Darien Gap.
Adopting Coercive Measures Against Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking:
Combating organized crime and drug trafficking remains a U.S. priority regardless of the election outcome, especially concerning Colombia, long at the center of anti-drug efforts. Trump’s administration could adopt a more military-based approach to counter fentanyl and other drug trafficking, potentially involving U.S. forces in Mexico.
Pressuring Latin American Countries to Distance Themselves from China:
South America imports over 20% of its manufactured goods from China, a major trading partner and investment source for several countries. Given this interdependence, Latin American countries may struggle to detach from China, whose investments and trade have bolstered economic growth. Nevertheless, Trump is likely to pressure the region to reduce its ties with Beijing.
Taking a Tough Stance Against Certain Leftist Regimes:
Trump’s administration would likely continue a unilateral approach toward Latin American regional crises, contrasting with Biden and Harris’s more multilateral approach. Trump’s stance toward leftist governments, such as those in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, would likely be more forceful. Mediation efforts like Brazil’s involvement in the Venezuelan crisis—praised by the current administration—would likely lack Washington’s support under Trump, who favors unilateral action.
Harris’s Policies
In contrast to Trump, Harris, if elected, is expected to adopt a set of policies toward Latin America as follows:
Maintaining Some Selective Tariffs: Harris would likely continue Biden’s selective tariffs, focusing on reinforcing alliances and maintaining trade agreements with Latin America. She may address concerns around Mexican agricultural and energy policies without imposing stringent trade restrictions, while also supporting U.S. companies moving production closer to the American border, including Mexico.
Avoiding Strict Immigration Measures: As Vice President, Harris spearheaded programs targeting the root causes of Central American migration, such as poverty. She sees immigration as needing reform and is likely to pursue legalization for “Dreamers,” a matter of little interest to Trump.
Collaborative Approach to Drug Policy: Unlike Trump, Harris would probably choose a more cooperative stance on drug policy, possibly considering regulated markets. However, military intervention is unlikely under her administration.
Agreement on Confronting China: Both Harris and Trump agree on the need to counter China’s presence in Latin America, with both parties viewing China as a threat to U.S. influence and interests. This approach is likely to persist under Harris’s potential administration.
Engaging with Regional Partners: Instruments like the Barbados Agreement, promoted by the Biden-Harris administration to facilitate free elections in Venezuela, may be replaced by increased economic sanctions. Harris would likely continue Biden’s approach of engaging with regional partners, such as Brazil and Colombia, to tackle various crises.
Mixed Impacts
The election of either Trump or Harris is expected to have different effects on Latin America, such as:
Economic Growth Opportunities: According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, sharp U.S. policy shifts under Trump could decrease Latin America’s economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points in 2025–2028, compared to a Harris-led scenario. Mexico and Central America would be most affected, while South American economies may remain more insulated.
Climate Change Initiatives: If Trump wins, his strong skepticism on climate issues might reverse many current environmental policies, reducing interest in clean energy projects. This could impact countries like Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile, rich in lithium reserves critical for electric batteries.
Reconfiguration of Relations: Trump is likely to align more closely with right-wing leaders in the region, such as Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, though without unconditional support. Tensions are expected with leftist leaders like Brazil’s Lula da Silva and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro. Meanwhile, Harris would likely continue Biden’s policy framework, with a greater focus on the Caribbean.
Increasing Social Tensions and Democratic Decline: Trump’s re-election is seen by some experts as a significant risk to democratic stability, not only in the U.S. but also in the region. His restrictive immigration policies could create social strain, particularly for migrant-origin countries that may lack resources to manage the effects of U.S. policy changes.
