Neorealism and the Chinese Rise: Power Dynamics in a Changing Global Order

Introduction

The rise of China as a global power has been one of the most significant developments in international relations in recent decades. As China’s economic and military capabilities have grown, so too have concerns about its potential to challenge the existing world order. This dramatic shift in the global balance of power has reignited interest in neorealist theory as a framework for understanding the implications of China’s ascendance.

Neorealism, also known as structural realism, provides a compelling lens through which to analyze the changing dynamics between China and other major powers, particularly the United States. This theoretical approach emphasizes the importance of the international system’s structure and the distribution of power among states in shaping their behavior and interactions.

This article will explore the key tenets of neorealism and apply them to the phenomenon of China’s rise. We will examine how neorealist concepts such as the balance of power, security dilemmas, and great power competition can shed light on China’s strategic choices and the responses of other states. Additionally, we will consider critiques of neorealism and alternative theoretical perspectives to provide a comprehensive analysis of this complex geopolitical shift.

Understanding Neorealism

Neorealism emerged as a dominant theory in international relations during the Cold War, largely through the work of Kenneth Waltz in his seminal 1979 book “Theory of International Politics.” Waltz sought to develop a more rigorous and scientific approach to understanding state behavior in the international system, building upon and refining classical realist ideas.

Key Principles of Neorealism:

1. Anarchy as the Organizing Principle: Neorealists argue that the international system is inherently anarchic, meaning there is no higher authority above states to enforce rules or adjudicate disputes. This condition of anarchy forces states to rely on self-help for survival and security.
2. States as Unitary Actors: Neorealism treats states as the primary units of analysis in international relations, viewing them as unitary actors with coherent national interests.
3. Relative Power as the Key Variable: The distribution of power among states is seen as the most important factor in determining their behavior and the outcomes of their interactions.
4. Balance of Power: States tend to balance against concentrations of power that threaten them, either through internal efforts (building up their own capabilities) or external alliances.
5. Security as the Primary Goal: In an anarchic system, states prioritize their security above all other objectives, leading to a focus on relative gains rather than absolute gains in their interactions with other states.
6. Structural Constraints: The structure of the international system, rather than the internal characteristics of states, is the primary determinant of state behavior.

Neorealism and China’s Rise

The rapid economic growth and military modernization of China over the past few decades presents a fascinating case study for neorealist analysis. As China’s power has increased relative to other states, particularly the United States, neorealists argue that this shift in the distribution of capabilities will inevitably lead to changes in state behavior and the overall structure of the international system.

Economic Growth and Power Transition

China’s economic rise has been nothing short of remarkable. Since initiating market reforms in 1978, China has experienced sustained high growth rates, becoming the world’s second-largest economy by nominal GDP and the largest by purchasing power parity. This economic expansion has provided China with the resources to invest heavily in military modernization and to extend its influence globally through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.

From a neorealist perspective, this growth in China’s relative power is highly significant. As China’s capabilities approach those of the United States, neorealists predict increasing competition and potential conflict between the two powers. This aligns with power transition theory, a subset of neorealist thought, which suggests that the risk of war is highest when a rising power threatens to overtake the dominant power in the international system.

Military Modernization and the Security Dilemma

China’s economic growth has enabled a comprehensive program of military modernization. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone significant reforms and equipment upgrades, developing advanced capabilities in areas such as anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), cyber warfare, and space technology. This military buildup has raised concerns among China’s neighbors and the United States about China’s long-term intentions.

Neorealism helps explain the security dilemma that arises from China’s military modernization. As China strengthens its military capabilities to ensure its own security in an anarchic system, other states perceive this as a potential threat to their security. This leads to a cycle of military buildup and increasing tensions, even if neither side actually intends to attack the other.

The security dilemma is particularly acute in the Asia-Pacific region, where China’s assertive behavior in territorial disputes, such as those in the South China Sea, has led to increased military spending and security cooperation among its neighbors. The United States has responded with its “pivot to Asia” strategy, rebalancing its military forces toward the region and strengthening alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Balancing Behavior and Alliance Dynamics

Neorealism predicts that as China’s power grows, other states will seek to balance against it to preserve their security and autonomy. This balancing can take two forms: internal balancing (building up one’s own military capabilities) and external balancing (forming alliances with other states).

We can observe both types of balancing behavior in response to China’s rise. Many of China’s neighbors, including Japan, India, and Vietnam, have increased their defense spending and modernized their militaries. Externally, we see the strengthening of existing alliances, such as the U.S.-Japan alliance, and the formation of new security partnerships, like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.

China, for its part, has sought to counter these balancing efforts through its own alliance-building and economic diplomacy. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and China’s strategic partnership with Russia can be seen as attempts to build a counterbalancing coalition against U.S. influence in Asia.

Structural Constraints and China’s Strategic Choices

Neorealism emphasizes the role of structural constraints in shaping state behavior. As China’s power has grown, it has faced increasing pressure to take on a larger role in global governance and to challenge aspects of the U.S.-led international order that it sees as unfavorable to its interests.

At the same time, China remains constrained by the structure of the international system. Despite its growing power, China still faces a preponderance of U.S. military capability, particularly in terms of power projection and alliance networks. This structural reality helps explain China’s emphasis on asymmetric capabilities and its focus on regional rather than global military dominance.

China’s “peaceful rise” strategy and its continued participation in many aspects of the existing international order can also be understood through a neorealist lens. By avoiding direct confrontation with the United States and emphasizing economic integration, China has been able to continue its rise while minimizing the risk of preventive war or the formation of an overwhelming balancing coalition against it.

The Belt and Road Initiative and Economic Statecraft

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides an interesting case study for neorealist analysis of economic statecraft. The BRI, which aims to build infrastructure and enhance connectivity across Eurasia and beyond, can be seen as an attempt by China to use its economic power to reshape the international system in its favor.

From a neorealist perspective, the BRI serves several strategic purposes:

1. It helps secure China’s access to resources and markets, reducing its vulnerability to potential economic coercion or blockade.
2. It creates economic dependencies that China can leverage for political influence.
3. It provides an alternative to U.S.-dominated international economic institutions, potentially weakening U.S. structural power.
4. It helps China project power and influence beyond its immediate neighborhood, challenging U.S. global primacy.

The BRI has elicited mixed responses from other states, with some eagerly participating in the hope of economic benefits, while others view it with suspicion as a tool of Chinese expansionism. This range of reactions illustrates the complex calculations states must make in balancing economic opportunities against security concerns in an increasingly multipolar world.

Nuclear Deterrence and Strategic Stability

The nuclear dimension of China’s rise presents unique challenges for neorealist analysis. China has long maintained a relatively small nuclear arsenal and a no-first-use policy, in contrast to the larger nuclear forces of the United States and Russia. As China’s conventional military power grows, questions arise about the future of its nuclear posture and its implications for strategic stability.

Neorealism suggests that as China’s overall power increases, it may feel pressure to expand and modernize its nuclear forces to maintain credible deterrence against other nuclear powers. Indeed, recent reports indicate that China is expanding its nuclear capabilities, including the development of more advanced delivery systems and the construction of new missile silos.

This nuclear modernization raises concerns about the potential for a new arms race and the erosion of strategic stability. The introduction of new technologies, such as hypersonic weapons and artificial intelligence, further complicates the nuclear balance and increases the risk of miscalculation.

From a neorealist perspective, the challenge for China and other nuclear powers is to find a new equilibrium that maintains deterrence and strategic stability in a more multipolar nuclear order. This may require new arms control agreements and confidence-building measures to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict.

Regional Dynamics and the South China Sea

The South China Sea disputes provide a clear illustration of how neorealist principles play out in regional power dynamics. China’s assertive behavior in claiming and militarizing features in the South China Sea can be understood as an attempt to secure its strategic interests and establish regional hegemony.

Neorealism helps explain several aspects of this situation:

1. China’s actions reflect its growing power and ability to challenge the status quo in its near abroad.
2. The responses of other claimant states, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, demonstrate balancing behavior, including seeking U.S. support to counter China’s actions.
3. The United States’ involvement in the disputes, including freedom of navigation operations, represents an effort to maintain its role as the dominant power in the region and prevent China from establishing exclusive control over this strategically important waterway.
4. The difficulty in resolving these disputes peacefully illustrates the security dilemma and the challenges of cooperation in an anarchic international system.

The South China Sea situation also highlights the limitations of international law and institutions in constraining state behavior when core interests are at stake, a key tenet of neorealist thought.

Technological Competition and Innovation

The race for technological supremacy between China and the United States represents another arena of great power competition that can be analyzed through a neorealist lens. Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G networks are seen as critical to future economic and military power.

Neorealism suggests that states will prioritize developing and controlling these technologies to enhance their relative power and security. This helps explain the intensifying competition between China and the United States in areas like semiconductor manufacturing, where both countries are seeking to secure supply chains and maintain technological edges.

The concept of relative gains is particularly relevant here. Even if both countries could benefit from cooperation in technological development, concerns about the other side gaining a decisive advantage lead to restrictive policies and efforts to limit technology transfer.

This technological rivalry has broader implications for the international system, potentially leading to the fragmentation of global technology standards and the emergence of competing spheres of technological influence.

Challenges to Neorealism and Alternative Perspectives

While neorealism provides valuable insights into the dynamics of China’s rise, it is important to acknowledge its limitations and consider alternative theoretical perspectives.

Critiques of Neorealism:

1. Oversimplification: Neorealism’s focus on structural factors and power distribution can overlook important domestic and ideational factors that influence state behavior.
2. Assumption of Rationality: The theory assumes states act rationally in pursuit of their interests, which may not always be the case.
3. Difficulty Explaining Change: Neorealism has been criticized for its difficulty in explaining major systemic changes, such as the end of the Cold War.
4. Neglect of Non-State Actors: The theory’s state-centric approach may underestimate the role of non-state actors in international relations.

Alternative Perspectives:

1. Liberalism: Liberal theories emphasize the potential for cooperation and the role of international institutions in mitigating conflict. They suggest that China’s economic interdependence with other states and its integration into the global economy may reduce the likelihood of conflict.
2. Constructivism: Constructivist approaches focus on the role of ideas, norms, and identities in shaping state behavior. They might examine how China’s historical experiences and cultural factors influence its foreign policy choices.
3. Domestic Politics Approaches: These theories argue that internal political dynamics, such as regime type and domestic interest groups, play a crucial role in determining a state’s foreign policy.
4. Power Transition Theory: While related to neorealism, power transition theory places more emphasis on the satisfaction or dissatisfaction of rising powers with the existing international order as a determinant of conflict.
5. English School: This approach combines elements of realism, liberalism, and constructivism, emphasizing the role of international society and shared norms in moderating state behavior.

Considering these alternative perspectives alongside neorealism can provide a more comprehensive understanding of China’s rise and its implications for the international system.

Implications for the Future

As China continues to grow in power and influence, the insights of neorealism will remain relevant for policymakers and scholars seeking to understand and navigate the changing global order. Several key implications emerge from this analysis:

1. Continued Strategic Competition: Neorealism suggests that strategic competition between China and the United States is likely to intensify as the power gap between them narrows. This competition will manifest across multiple domains, including military, economic, technological, and diplomatic spheres.
2. Regional Balancing: We can expect to see ongoing efforts by states in the Asia-Pacific region to balance against China’s growing power, either by aligning more closely with the United States or by building up their own capabilities.
3. Potential for Conflict: While not inevitable, the risk of conflict may increase as power transitions occur and states jockey for position in the changing international system. Managing this risk will be a key challenge for policymakers.
4. Importance of Deterrence: Maintaining credible deterrence, both conventional and nuclear, will be crucial for preserving stability as the distribution of power shifts.
5. Economic and Technological Decoupling: Concerns about relative gains and security may lead to further fragmentation of global supply chains and technology ecosystems.
6. Institutional Adaptation: Existing international institutions may need to evolve to accommodate China’s growing power and influence, or new institutions may emerge to reflect the changing balance of power.
7. Continued Importance of Alliances: Alliance dynamics will remain a critical factor in shaping the strategic landscape, with both China and the United States seeking to strengthen their respective partnership networks.

Conclusion

Neorealism provides a powerful framework for analyzing the implications of China’s rise in the international system. By focusing on the distribution of power, the anarchic nature of the international system, and the resulting security dilemmas, neorealism helps explain many of the strategic choices made by China, the United States, and other states in response to this shifting balance of power.

The theory’s emphasis on structural factors highlights the enduring challenges of great power competition and the difficulties of maintaining stability during periods of power transition. At the same time, the limitations of neorealism remind us of the importance of considering other factors, such as domestic politics, economic interdependence, and ideational influences, in developing a comprehensive understanding of international relations.

As China continues its ascent, policymakers and scholars will need to draw on insights from neorealism and other theoretical perspectives to navigate the complex dynamics of a changing global order. The challenge will be to manage the inevitable tensions and competitions that arise from shifts in the balance of power while seeking areas of cooperation and mutual benefit that can help maintain international peace and stability.

Ultimately, the story of China’s rise and its impact on the international system is still unfolding. Neorealism provides us with valuable tools for anticipating and analyzing the strategic challenges ahead, but the precise shape of the future global order will depend on the choices made by leaders in China, the United States, and other key states in the years to come.