Macron’s Maneuvers: What Are the Implications of Dissolving the French National Assembly?
While many expected the end of Macronism following the announcement of the European election results, Emmanuel Macron surprised everyone by using what the French newspaper Le Figaro termed his “constitutional nuclear option”—dissolving the National Assembly and calling for early legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, 2024. This decision has sparked a divided reaction; some view it as a responsible move by Macron after his significant loss in the European elections, while others see it as a maneuver to overshadow the victory of the National Rally party. The announcement came about an hour after the results were revealed, leading some to consider it a surrender of the country to chaos, potentially allowing the far right to gain power.
Main Motivations
The motivations behind this decision can be summarized as follows:
Macron’s Camp’s Failure in the European Elections: Macron justified his decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for early legislative elections immediately after the historic victory of the National Rally party in the European elections by stating that he could not act as if nothing had happened. The European voting results saw the far-right National Rally achieving 31.4%, while Macron’s camp only secured 14.6%. The increase in voter turnout in the European elections, reaching 51.49% in 2024, highlights the growing importance of these elections for the French.
Growing Significance of European Voting in French Politics: The increasing voter participation indicates that European elections have gained substantial weight in French political life. Macron’s opponents successfully turned the latest European vote into a referendum against him. The final days before the European elections saw a televised debate between far-right list leader Jordan Bardella and French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, with a proposed debate between Macron and Marine Le Pen, which Le Pen agreed to only if Macron included the dissolution of the National Assembly or his resignation as a condition in case of a loss.
Attempt to Restore Macron’s Political Image: Macron’s second term, which began in June 2022, has been marked by challenges, particularly with a minority government and the controversial use of constitutional Article 49.3, notably to pass pension reform in March 2023, seen by many as undemocratic. The fragmented parliament, with ten different parliamentary groups, made achieving a stable majority difficult. Dissolving the National Assembly can be seen as a political move to restructure the legislative process and governance for the remainder of his final term. Many view this decision as a gamble, given the weakened support base for Macronism.
Public Fear of the Far Right’s Rise: Macron emphasized in his speech announcing the dissolution that the rise of nationalists and demagogues poses a danger to the nation, calling for political clarity as the far right nears power. Some see this as a “me or chaos” strategy, used previously against Le Pen (in 2017 and 2022), now in a 2024 version, aiming to exploit the left’s division and restore the “Republican front” to block the far right.
Disrupting Political Opponents: Analysts suggest that Macron’s decision to hasten a new election campaign is a strategic move to disrupt all his opponents, pushing his supporters within the Renaissance, Democratic Movement (MODEM), and Horizons parties to prove their loyalty and energy, especially after previous crises, such as the immigration law controversy with far-right MPs.
Appealing Directly to the People: Macron portrayed himself as the only French political leader not concerned with personal interests, being unable to run for the 2027 presidential elections, and committed to giving the people a voice to decide the country’s future, questioning whether they want France governed by the National Rally.
Varied Strategies
French political forces will face major challenges in dealing with the early elections:
Rebuilding Renaissance Party’s Political Influence: The major challenge for Macron’s camp is reshaping its image, given its transformation from a dominant party in 2017 to a relative majority in 2022 and potentially becoming an opposition party by 2024.
Complications in Political Alliances for Renaissance: Suggestions for an alliance with the Republicans have surfaced, with figures like former President Nicolas Sarkozy advocating for it to secure a stable majority until the end of Macron’s term. However, this strategy might alienate left-leaning voters.
National Rally’s Challenge in Managing Political Relationships: A secret poll indicates the National Rally could win a majority if early elections are held, explaining Marine Le Pen’s readiness to govern France. However, securing political stability with opposition from leftists, traditional right, and centrist Macronists remains critical.
Ongoing Divisions within the Left: The early elections will redefine the balance within the left-wing coalition, especially with the Socialist Party’s strong comeback in the European elections. Deciding on a unified candidate and program for the elections remains contentious.
Republicans’ Challenge in Choosing Political Alignment: After a poor showing in the European elections, the Republicans face the choice of aligning with Macron or being tempted by a coalition with the National Rally, with some leaders calling for a return to the right before it’s too late.
In conclusion, for Macron’s gamble on dissolving the National Assembly and calling early elections to succeed, he must revive the Republican front, attract non-voters with a compelling program, and challenge Marine Le Pen directly in a public debate. However, the biggest challenge is the possibility of these early elections resulting in no absolute majority for any side, echoing the 2022 legislative elections.
