Kishida’s Resignation: The Impact of the Prime Minister’s Resignation on the Japanese Political Scene
Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Fumio Kishida, announced at a press conference on August 14, 2024, that he will resign from the party leadership in September, and consequently step down as Prime Minister. This decision comes amid political scandals and rising living costs, which have negatively affected his three-year tenure. This has sparked a wave of reactions both domestically and internationally, concerning who will succeed him as party leader and prime minister next month, as well as the reasons that led Kishida to resign and its impact on the Japanese political landscape.
Driving Reasons
Fumio Kishida’s resignation is attributed to several major challenges he faced during his tenure, including economic difficulties, political scandals, and declining public support, which can be summarized as follows:
Failure of Economic Policies: Kishida’s economic policies, particularly his approach known as “New Capitalism,” aimed at creating a more inclusive economy, faced significant criticism. Although they focused on addressing income disparity and stimulating economic growth, they ultimately failed to achieve the expected results. The already burdened Japanese economy, grappling with a shrinking workforce and an aging population, faced additional pressures due to rising inflation rates and a weak yen, which remained one of the worst-performing currencies globally. This was despite some recent recovery in its value following the central bank’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years. These pressures significantly impacted the lives of Japanese consumers, who felt the effects of rising food prices and imported fuel costs due to the weak currency and disrupted global supply chains, eroding their purchasing power. Consequently, there was a growing sentiment among the public that Kishida’s government had not taken adequate measures to address their economic concerns, despite implementing a range of measures such as stimulus packages and monetary easing.
Proliferation of Political Money Scandals: Kishida’s reputation and that of his government suffered greatly due to political money scandals uncovered within certain factions of the LDP. These factions failed to disclose the total income they received from political fundraising, instead placing the extra funds into unaccountable accounts. Since the corruption scandal erupted in December 2023, Kishida dismissed several government ministers and party executives, dissolved criticized party factions seen as sources of money for favoritism, and reinforced the enforcement of the Political Funds Control Law. In January 2024, more than 80 party MPs were directly implicated, with 39 of them eventually penalized. Although Kishida himself escaped direct involvement, there was evidence suggesting that his faction within the party was also involved in reducing the disclosure of political donations, leading to accusations of double standards in applying the law. Despite Kishida’s efforts to reform financial corruption within the party, political support for his government dwindled significantly, which the opposition exploited to criticize his party for cutting back on legislation aimed at tightening controls on political fundraising. Regarding this scandal, Kishida stated at his press conference, “As the party leader, I do not hesitate to take responsibility,” indicating that he had made his decision early on and chose to step down at the right time to prevent further damage.
Kishida’s Awareness of Declining Public Support: Kishida was not highly popular even when he assumed office as Prime Minister in October 2021. In recent months, opinion polls have revealed deep dissatisfaction among the public with the ruling party, especially as Kishida’s approval ratings continued to plummet to new lows, prompting him to make greater efforts to restore trust, including passing legislation to reform campaign finance rules. However, these efforts were not sufficient to boost his popularity. A poll conducted by Japan’s public broadcaster, NHK, in August 2024, showed that Kishida’s approval rating had fallen to just 25%, and sometimes even below 20%, a significant decline compared to the roughly 50% approval rating he had when he took office. Political analysts believe that Kishida’s reputation suffered because he was perceived as a leader unable to offer bold solutions to Japan’s major challenges, such as the rapid population decline, sluggish economy, and mounting debt levels, not to mention the failure of economic policies to alleviate the economic stagnation plaguing the country. Kishida’s awareness of declining public support was evident in his remarks during the press conference, where he said, “The government can only continue with the trust of the people, and I have made my decision based on a strong desire to push political reform forward,” adding that “the most obvious first step to show that the Liberal Democratic Party is changing is for me to step down.”
Maintaining the Unity of the Liberal Democratic Party: The political scandals that plagued Kishida’s administration not only eroded public trust but also created divisions within the LDP, making it difficult for Kishida to maintain a united front within the party. As his approval ratings declined and scandals continued to surface, many prominent figures within the party began positioning themselves as potential successors, leading to divisions within the LDP as factions formed around different candidates. In this context, the series of losses the party suffered in local elections in April 2024 led to calls within the party for a new leader to take over, in order to gain support ahead of the upcoming national elections, scheduled for October 2025. Although Kishida was theoretically expected to remain party leader until then, NHK reported that there were growing voices within the party who believed they would not be able to successfully contest the elections under Kishida’s government. Thus, it can be said that he was forced to resign to demonstrate that the party is committed to changing its policies to meet the aspirations of its voters ahead of next year’s national elections. This decision is likely a strategic move to preserve party unity and avoid further internal conflict.
Changing Landscape
The challenge facing the next LDP leader will be dealing with the political and economic uncertainty, both domestically and internationally, which could help in garnering support from the Japanese people. Therefore, the current political landscape in Japan can be read as follows:
Intensifying Competition for LDP Leadership: The Prime Minister’s decision not to seek another term could lead to the largest electoral race in Japan in years to choose a new leader, especially given the emergence of more than 10 potential candidates for the position. This has led many experts to predict that the party will witness an unprecedentedly ambiguous election in September, due to the absence of a strong and clear successor candidate. This will likely lead to intense competition among potential successors and pose many challenges in predicting the party’s direction and future policies. In this context, several senior LDP lawmakers are considered potential candidates, including Kishida’s rival and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Additionally, three others who challenged Kishida in the 2021 election, Digital Minister Taro Kono, Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, and former Gender Equality Minister Seiko Noda, are also potential contenders, although it is unclear whether any of them can secure the support of at least 20 MPs to enter the race. The winner will replace Kishida as party leader and will be confirmed as the new Prime Minister in a parliamentary vote shortly thereafter. Party executives are expected to decide next week on the date of the party elections, which are likely to be held sometime between September 20 and 29, 2024.
Rising Concerns About Government Instability: Despite his tenure lasting nearly three years, Kishida has become the eighth longest-serving Prime Minister in Japan. Now, his resignation may revive concerns within Japan that the country could return to periods of government instability that had long characterized the Japanese political scene, except during the tenure of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who served longer than any other Japanese leader, from 2012 to 2020. Historically, Japan has seen a succession of Prime Ministers who did not remain in power for long, failed to implement significant political changes, and ended up forgotten shortly after leaving office. Therefore, many government officials and security experts believe that strong and stable leadership from Japan is particularly necessary given the current global geopolitical uncertainty.
Difficulty for the Opposition to Capitalize on Kishida’s Resignation: The challenges facing the LDP extend to the upcoming general elections, but the divided Japanese opposition may find it difficult to exploit this situation to their advantage. Experts indicate that voters may want to punish the LDP for the scandals it has been involved in, but at the same time, they do not see effective leadership alternatives in the opposition parties. Although the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), the main opposition party, achieved some victories in this year’s local elections, partly by exploiting the LDP scandals, it struggles to formulate policies that contrast with those of the ruling coalition. Although general elections are not required until 2025, some polls have shown that the CDPJ is ahead of the LDP in current voting intentions. However, the next Prime Minister is unlikely to call for early elections to strengthen the mandate of the new government, and it is expected that the LDP and its junior coalition partner, the Komeito Party, will retain control given their strong position in national politics.
Focus on Domestic Economic Reform by Candidates for the Government Leadership: The approach that the new leader will take in dealing with economic and social policies will be crucial in determining Japan’s future direction. With the Japanese economy struggling and public discontent rising, the new administration will need to implement effective measures to address these challenges. This may require revisiting or modifying Kishida’s “New Capitalism” policy or introducing new economic reforms focusing on social welfare and supporting vulnerable groups. Most candidates are likely to focus on these issues to attract the support of party members and win its leadership, and subsequently, lead Japan.
Potential Continuation of Japan’s External Approach: Kishida’s tenure witnessed an active diplomatic role for Japan, as he sought to strengthen the country’s position on the international stage by deepening alliances, especially with the United States, and playing a prominent role in addressing global issues such as climate change and security in the Asia-Pacific region. The new Prime Minister will likely continue this approach, given Japan’s need to maintain stable and strong relations with other major powers in light of geopolitical developments. However, the next leader’s vision will be essential in determining the extent to which Japan will engage in international issues and the degree of emphasis placed on its economic and domestic priorities. It is likely that any new leader will seek to continue deepening security and economic cooperation with allies in the face of challenges posed by China and North Korea. Japan may also continue its policy of building military capabilities and increasing defense spending to counter potential threats in the region, especially in light of the ongoing instability in the Taiwan Strait and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Despite the potential changes in the political landscape in Japan, Kishida’s resignation may prompt a reevaluation of Japan’s economic policies and a focus on measures that can stimulate growth and address the challenges facing the Japanese economy and society. Although the new leader’s identity and policies remain uncertain, it is expected that the domestic economic approach will be a key factor in shaping Japan’s future direction.
