Over the past decades, Central Asia has emerged as a crucial area for Turkish initiatives. Ankara views the region as a historical extension of itself, considering it a part of what is termed the Turkish world, a concept that reflects the Turkish state’s broad ambitions to reclaim Ottoman heritage. The historical aspect is not the only driver of Turkey’s policy in Central Asia, as the region also serves Turkish economic interests, particularly in light of the transformations in the international system following the Ukrainian war. Ankara is trying to rebuild its presence in the region, especially with the rise of international competition there.
Diverse Movements
Turkey aims to strengthen its influence in the Turkish-speaking countries to assert its presence on the global stage. In recent times, a series of initiatives have been undertaken, which can be summarized as follows:
Promoting the Idea of a “Shared Past”: In October 2024, the Turkish Ministry of National Education announced a change in school history curricula by replacing the term “Central Asia” with “Turkistan” to denote the region of Turkish-speaking countries. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan highlighted the significance of this shift as part of expanding the “Turkey Century” vision to include the unity of the “Turkish world,” with the term historically referring to the “homeland of Turks” before being replaced by “Central Asia” during the 19th-century Russian expansion.
Additionally, a committee from the Organization of Turkic States convened on October 9, 2024, to draft a common map of the “Turkish world.” Furthermore, in November 2021, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party presented Erdoğan with a historical map of “Greater Turan,” spanning from the Balkans to parts of China, signaling Turkey’s aspirations to unify Central Asian countries and the South Caucasus under its leadership.
Strengthening Cultural and Linguistic Ties: Ankara is striving to enhance its cultural and linguistic links with Central Asian countries through various institutions, notably the International Turkish Academy, often associated with the Organization of Turkic States. As part of deepening this cooperation, the academy announced plans to adopt a unified Turkish alphabet based on Latin letters, consisting of 34 characters, to replace the Cyrillic alphabet used in some regional countries like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. This project was announced during a meeting held in Baku, Azerbaijan, in September 2024, following a two-year development process aimed at establishing a standard alphabet reflecting the different sounds in Turkish languages, facilitating communication and strengthening a shared identity among the region’s peoples. Additionally, initiatives include organizing cultural events, student exchanges, and joint educational programs with Turkey to deepen relations among Turkish-speaking communities.
Activating Diplomatic Tools: Turkey seeks to bolster its international standing by acting as a mediator in regional disputes, reflecting its ability to influence regional stability and enhancing its image as a leader. This diplomatic strength was evident during the border crisis between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that erupted in 2022, leading to direct confrontations that resulted in casualties on both sides.
Ankara intervened to facilitate successful negotiations, paving the way for the demarcation of the shared border between the two countries, which reached 94% completion by August 2024. This mediation garnered significant attention, especially following the Turkish Foreign Minister’s visits to both countries in January 2024, which helped to ease tensions despite potential escalations. In March 2024, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced the resolution of the conflict, reflecting the acceptance of Ankara’s role as a key player in promoting regional stability.
Investing in Energy and Oil Cooperation: Ankara focuses on enhancing its economic relations with the region’s countries through the development of trade cooperation and the implementation of strategic projects in areas such as energy and transportation. These efforts involve developing new pipelines and strengthening partnerships with resource-rich countries like Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. It also aims to sign cooperation agreements to execute energy transport projects linking Asia with European countries, contributing to infrastructure modernization and expanding pipeline networks to ease the flow of gas and oil.
Among the prominent initiatives is the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, which runs from Turkmenistan to Turkey via Afghanistan to reach Western markets. Additionally, the Caspian-Turkey pipeline connects Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to Turkey for oil and gas transport, reinforcing Turkey’s role as a link between the East and West. The Caspian Sea-Turkey pipeline also plays a crucial role in transporting crude oil from the Caspian Sea through Turkey to the Mediterranean, enhancing Turkey’s ability to influence global energy flows.
In light of the imposed sanctions on Moscow, Ankara seeks to exploit these circumstances to provide alternatives for transporting oil from Central Asian nations to global markets through projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, providing an independent and secure export route to European countries. These projects contribute to strengthening Turkey’s position as a vital energy hub between producers in the East and consumers in the West.
Expanding Military Cooperation with Regional Countries: In September 2024, the Kazakh government signed an agreement with Turkey regarding the transit of military equipment and personnel across both countries’ airspace. The Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) announced a memorandum of understanding with a Kazakh engineering company to manufacture “Anka” drones in Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan has also signed several agreements in recent years to enhance military and technical cooperation with Turkey. Furthermore, Turkey has heavily supported Azerbaijan’s military operation to regain sovereignty over the Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenian control.
Ankara’s Objectives
Turkey’s strategy towards Central Asia focuses on achieving several goals aimed at strengthening its regional and international standing. These can be highlighted as follows:
Supporting Turkish Soft Power: Through these movements, Turkey aims to enhance its regional and international influence by activating the tool of soft power, leveraging the cultural and linguistic ties that unite Turkish-speaking nations. The focus on unifying the cultural identity of these countries reflects Turkey’s desire to build an effective network of influence extending across Central Asia, enabling it to impact regional and global policies. By establishing itself as a leader of the shared Turkish culture, Ankara seeks to utilize this unity to bolster its internal stability and open new avenues for political and economic cooperation with its neighbors. This approach also enhances Turkey’s ability to influence the balance of power in the region, providing it with a means to compete with major powers like Russia and China for influence in Central Asia.
Transforming the Organization of Turkic States into an Effective Regional Bloc: Turkey aims to convert the Organization of Turkic States into a regional bloc with international weight, comparable to the European Union. By enhancing cooperation in areas of security, trade, and politics, Ankara seeks to establish an organizational structure that contributes to the coordination of joint efforts among member states. This strategy strengthens Turkey’s role as a leader of the organization and grants it the advantage of representing Turkish-speaking countries in international forums, thereby increasing its negotiating power.
Enhancing Defense Exports: Turkey focuses on augmenting its military influence in Central Asia through the export of defense technology, with drones being one of the foremost examples of the advancement of its domestic industries in this field. By signing cooperation agreements with countries like Kazakhstan, Turkey aims to diversify its collaboration with the region through the transfer of these technologies.
Moreover, Turkey seeks to establish strategic partnerships with regional countries, contributing to enhancing its political and military influence. These initiatives are not only intended to support regional security but also to reinforce Turkey’s position as a key supplier of military technology, increasing its ability to impact regional affairs.
Exploiting the Global Polarization in the Region: Central Asia is experiencing a state of international polarization due to the ongoing conflict between major powers. This competition reflects the escalating crisis between the West and Russia over Ukraine, alongside the West’s efforts to limit China’s growing influence. In this context, Turkey attempts to leverage these circumstances to present itself as a neutral party that promotes cooperation with regional countries without siding with either of the conflicting parties. As Russia continues to focus on its war in Ukraine and faces escalating tensions with the West, Central Asian nations find themselves in need of new partners to ensure their stability and support them economically and politically. Here, Turkey emerges as a balanced alternative capable of providing support without getting embroiled in alignment with either of the superpowers.
At the same time, China is expanding its economic influence in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative, raising concerns among some countries about the risks of economic dominance. Turkey plays a pivotal role here, leveraging its cultural and historical ties with regional states, and offering partnerships based on balanced interests and civilizational closeness. These factors make it a flexible and acceptable option for countries seeking to avoid entanglement in conflicts of major powers while maintaining their strategic independence.
In a related vein, some factions in the West, particularly in the United States, promote the importance of enhancing Turkey’s role as an alternative force to Moscow in its historical spheres of influence. Therefore, some advocate for Washington to provide comprehensive support for Turkish initiatives aimed at expanding Ankara’s influence in Central Asia. In this context, Turkey seeks to exploit Western support to bolster its regional position and compete with major powers such as Russia and China, thereby serving its interests in the region and enhancing its international standing.
Improving the Image of the Ruling Party Domestically: Turkey is striving to alleviate the economic crises it faces by enhancing its relationships with other countries and improving its global standing. President Erdoğan’s government aims to bolster its domestic image, particularly following recent local election results that saw the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lose several large cities, such as Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir. In this context, the cultural connections among the peoples of Turkey emerge as an important tool for achieving this goal, as these ties can enhance cultural diplomacy and increase Turkey’s influence in the region and globally, especially in light of the growing interest in shared connections with Central Asian countries, which might contribute to strengthening Turkey’s position on the global economic and political stage.
Developing a Strong Regional Economic Base: Turkey is working on developing a robust regional economic base by encouraging trade exchanges and investing in infrastructure and transportation projects. This aims to build an economic network that supports member states of the Organization of Turkic States and opens new areas for commercial cooperation. By strengthening economic ties, Ankara aims to achieve mutual interests that support regional economic growth and increase its influence as a significant economic power.
Using Oil as a Lever to Manage Relations with Europe: Turkey exploits its strategic geographical location to enhance its position as a key transit point for energy transport between Central Asia and Europe, thereby bolstering its ability to use oil and gas as tools for managing relations and negotiations with European and international countries. Additionally, Ankara aims to achieve greater political and economic impact by securing supply lines and enhancing the stability of energy markets, positioning itself favorably in regional and international issues. Furthermore, this approach contributes to making Turkey a crucial player in ensuring European energy security, thereby enhancing its political influence on the global stage.
Key Challenges
Turkey faces significant challenges in enhancing its influence in Central Asia due to the entrenched political and economic dominance of both Russia and China. China is the largest trading partner for most countries in the region and is making extensive efforts to ensure these countries’ loyalty through its Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing its economic and political influence. Conversely, Russia maintains a strong historical and geopolitical influence, viewing Central Asia as part of its “near abroad” policy and working to preserve its traditional dominance in the region. This dual control presents a major challenge for Turkey in its quest to achieve strategic advancement in the region without causing tensions with the two great powers.
Additionally, Turkey faces internal disparities in the region by engaging with non-Turkic ethnic groups like the Tajiks, necessitating flexible strategies that balance its interests with those of member states. Moreover, the regional impacts of both Iran and India pose challenges, as Iran emerges as a power seeking to protect its interests in Central Asia while circumventing Western sanctions. Concurrently, India’s increasing involvement in regional initiatives and economic cooperation adds a new dimension of competition for influence in the region, complicating Turkey’s efforts to make balanced progress amidst all the regional and international challenges.
In conclusion, despite Turkey’s significant efforts to bolster its influence in Central Asia, its path appears fraught with obstacles. The enduring dominance of Russia and China in the region poses a considerable challenge to Turkey’s ambitions, and the rising competition from other powers such as India and Iran may further complicate the political and economic landscape in the area.
