Foreign influence in the Confederation of Sahel States is a complex and intertwined issue, where the political, economic, and military interests of major and regional powers converge. This vast area, which spans the Sahara Desert, comprises countries that face significant security and developmental challenges such as terrorism, poverty, and political instability. As a result of these challenges, the Sahel states have become a battleground for geopolitical conflicts, with foreign powers competing to enhance their influence by supporting local governments, military interventions, or providing developmental and economic aid.
This report aims to study foreign influence in the Sahel States while analyzing the roles of prominent international actors such as France, the United States, Russia, China, Ukraine, Germany, and Turkey, in addition to the growing role of international and regional organizations. It will also highlight the impact of this influence on security and stability in the region and the future of political and economic development in the Sahel states.
In this context, Niger was long seen as a reliable partner for Europe and the United States in combatting terrorism. However, a military coup last year changed the political landscape, adding to the series of coups recently witnessed in the region. This report seeks to review the most significant transformations and developments concerning foreign influence in the Confederation of Sahel States through the following axes:
- Confederation of Sahel States: Structure, Dynamics, and Objectives
- Historical Background of Foreign Influence: Colonialism and Previous European Impacts
- Implications of the Establishment of the Confederation of Sahel States on Foreign Influence
I. Confederation of Sahel States: Structure, Objectives, and Updates
The “Confederation of Sahel States” represents a regional alliance aimed at addressing the common challenges facing countries in the area, such as terrorism, climate change, and economic downturns. This alliance comprises states with similar geographical, security, and economic features, making cooperation between them essential for achieving stability and progress. The establishment of this confederation is a response to the increasing security threats jeopardizing the region’s stability, in addition to its aim to promote sustainable development and improve living standards for its populations.
The confederation focuses on adopting comprehensive strategies to combat terrorism, enhance economic integration, and develop robust regional infrastructure. It also plays a vital role in building international relations with global actors to boost investments and provide developmental aid. These efforts aim to achieve security and development while maintaining the sovereignty and political balance of the states in the region.
Structure of the Alliance
The Sahel States Alliance represents the first step toward realizing the “Confederation of Sahel States,” initiated by the three countries (Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali) since September 2023. The alliance was established on the principle of “establishing collective defensive engineering and mutual assistance among the parties,” with its primary and pressing goal being to deter and prevent military intervention threatened by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and France to overthrow the military council in Niger. An examination of the founding agreement of the confederation reveals its focus on the structural aspect of cooperation, establishing a new institutional framework comprising: a Council of Heads of State, a Confederation Council of Ministers, and confederation parliamentary sessions. The Sahel states drew inspiration from the Liotpur-Gurma Charter, seeking to enhance and institutionalize their cooperation. The structure starts with the Confederation Council of Heads of State, which is the highest authority, responsible for setting confederation policies in areas such as security, defense, diplomacy, and development. The presidency of this council rotates among the three heads of state, with each president serving a one-year term, and decisions being made by consensus. The Confederation Council of Ministers includes the foreign, defense, and security ministers from member states, along with ministers responsible for coordinating developmental issues, who submit proposals to the presidential council within their areas of competence. Regarding the Confederation Parliamentary Council, the agreement stipulates that it is composed of members referred to as “confederal deputies,” who are elected from the parliaments of member states, ensuring equal representation for the three countries in this newly established council.
Objectives of the Alliance
In recent years, the Sahel region of Africa has become a hotspot of instability, suffering from military coups, extremist violence, and rampant poverty, leading to a humanitarian crisis and weakening regional security. Through this alliance, the three countries (Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali) aim to achieve several objectives, including:
- Enhancing Security Cooperation: Security cooperation among member states can be strengthened through intelligence sharing, joint military operations, and border security. This could enable a more coordinated response to the threats posed by extremist groups, building national and regional military capacities to counter internal and external threats. Additionally, it facilitates the development of joint defensive systems and securing borders to reduce arms smuggling and organized crime.
- A More Flexible Governance Model: The governance system in Africa may attempt to create a model of governance perceived as more responsive to the needs of the Sahel region than the Western-supported democracies that have existed since independence. However, the success of this model will depend on the commitment of member states to good governance, transparency, and addressing the root causes of instability.
- Combating Terrorism and Violent Extremism: By unifying regional efforts to confront the threats posed by armed extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, which directly affect the security and stability of the Sahel countries, and enhancing security and military cooperation among member states through intelligence sharing and conducting joint operations.
- Achieving Economic Integration: The union also aims to enhance intra-regional trade and develop common infrastructure to support economic cooperation among member states. Furthermore, it seeks to launch developmental projects aimed at improving living standards and reducing poverty, especially in rural areas affected by conflicts.
Updates
The dynamics of the Confederation of Sahel States are complex, influenced by internal and external factors encompassing security, politics, economics, and international relations. The confederation comprises countries facing common challenges such as terrorism, food insecurity, and environmental degradation but also suffers from disparities in national interests and political strategies. These factors sometimes lead to fostering cooperation among member states, while at other times they create tensions due to differing priorities.
As part of strengthening the alliance among the three countries, the confederation announced on September 16 the introduction of new biometric passports to coordinate travel documents and facilitate the movement of citizens globally, as part of its withdrawal from the West African bloc in favor of a new alliance in the region. Burkina Faso also announced earlier this month the issuance of new passports without the logo of the Economic Community of West African States. Additionally, the confederation plans to launch a common information channel to enhance harmonious news dissemination.
The confederation had announced in January its withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has attempted to persuade it to reverse this decision. ECOWAS warned that the withdrawal of the three countries would negatively impact the freedom of movement and the common market for nearly 400 million people in the economic bloc established 49 years ago.
II. Historical Background of Foreign Influence: Colonialism and Previous European Impacts
Foreign influence has been a crucial factor in shaping the political and economic history of the African Sahel states. Since the European colonial period in the 19th and 20th centuries, these countries have undergone significant transformations in their social and economic structures, as colonial powers sought to exploit natural resources and enhance their political influence in the region. This period left a heavy legacy of political and economic dependency and significantly affected the delineation of current borders and the formation of national identity in these countries. Despite achieving independence, the effects of foreign influence remain evident in local and regional policies.
Colonialism and Previous European Impacts
Foreign influence in the African Sahel began with the expansion of European colonial powers in the late 19th century, primarily with France and Britain competing for control over this resource-rich region and its strategic location linking North and West Africa. Under colonial agreements such as the Berlin Conference (1884-1885), the Sahel regions were divided among colonial powers, resulting in artificial borders that did not consider the ethnic and cultural affiliations of the region’s populations.
During the colonial era, France, in particular, sought to enhance its control through a centralized administrative system and to integrate local populations into the colonial economy, focusing on extracting natural resources such as gold, uranium, and cotton. France also imposed a Francophone cultural model aiming to integrate the local populations into the French Empire. However, this economic exploitation and political repression sparked widespread popular resistance movements, leading to a surge in national liberation movements until the mid-20th century.
After the independence of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in the 1960s, despite the departure of colonial powers, European influence continued to dominate the economic and military policies of the Sahel states. Strong relationships persisted with France through military and economic agreements that kept these African countries within the French sphere of influence. This colonial legacy continues to complicate the efforts of the Sahel countries today to achieve full sovereignty and reduce their dependence on foreign powers, which is clearly seen in recent foreign interventions in the region.
III. Influence of Foreign Countries in the Confederation of Sahel States in Light of Rapid Regional Dynamics
The influence of foreign powers in the Sahel Confederation states is undergoing continuous transformations due to the security and political complexities affecting the region. As challenges escalate, international powers vie to strengthen their presence and secure their strategic interests, leading to the formation of new alliances and the reshaping of influence maps in the region. While some traditionally dominant countries are retreating, others are emerging, seeking to bolster their military and diplomatic presence by supporting local regimes and participating in counterterrorism efforts.
Simultaneously, other countries have emerged as key economic players in the confederation, attempting to use their economic power through significant infrastructure projects and investments to enhance their influence. Concurrently, some confederation states are trying to maintain stable relations with competing powers, employing a delicate balancing policy. These states aim to leverage the military and economic support provided by major powers while carefully safeguarding their sovereignty and preventing any single power from establishing absolute control over the region. In this section, we will review the latest changes in foreign influence in the Confederation of Sahel States in recent times.
France and the United States
On April 24, the U.S. State Department announced the final decision to withdraw American troops from Niger. According to a joint statement issued on May 19 by the U.S. and Niger military authorities, American forces will complete their withdrawal by September 15. These forces, numbering just under 650 soldiers, will hand over key facilities, including an expensive drone base in the northern city of Agadez. This follows the Nigerien military council’s unilateral cancellation of the 2013 Status of Forces agreement, which served as the legal basis for American military operations in the country. The final decision to withdraw American forces from Niger was completed by September 15.
On December 23, France completed the withdrawal of its troops from Niger after the new military council in the country requested it. The French army’s General Staff announced that the last military airlift and French forces had departed Niger by the deadline set by the military council, which severed ties with Paris following the coup. France had already announced in the same week that it would close its diplomatic mission in Niger “for an indefinite period.”
Russia
Russia has exploited the recent cycles of coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2021 to bolster its presence in the Sahel region. Despite the high costs of its indiscriminate counter-terrorism tactics on its troops and the regimes they support, Russia has become the new strategic ally for Sahel nations in their fight against Islamist groups operating in these countries. With the support of the Russian army, the Malian army managed to reclaim the city of Kidal in the northeast from rebels in November 2023, as well as other areas. Since April 2024, a coordination mechanism has been activated among regional armies, and operations are underway to divide areas under the control of Islamic groups, ranging from eastern Mali to northern Burkina Faso and Niger.
In addition to military cooperation, trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Sahel countries is expanding. Since September 2023, Russian companies, both private and state-owned, have signed several agreements with regional countries in sectors such as mining and industrial construction. Russia is primarily focusing on food security and developing the digital economy in the context of its return to Africa, and is significantly supporting peacekeeping forces in various initiatives. However, the results of these efforts largely depend on the commitment and determination of military leaders in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to defend their current objectives. Relations between Russia and Sahel Union members are expected to deepen.
Russia provides protection for military regimes in the Sahel region in exchange for access to strategic natural resources such as gold, helping it circumvent Western sanctions and finance its war in Ukraine. The use of private military contractors in the Sahel has reduced the costs for the Kremlin, allowing Russia to achieve substantial gains with limited investments. Moscow has also benefitted from the infrastructure established by the Wagner Group in Libya to facilitate its presence, using air bases in areas controlled by Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar as hubs for military flights transporting equipment and personnel between its bases in Syria, Mali, and the Central African Republic.
China
Similar to Russia, China aims to present itself as an alternative to its traditional ally, France, in the Sahel Confederation countries. Leveraging its “non-interference” and “respect for sovereignty” policies, China has managed to establish itself as a key partner for Sahel countries. These countries possess vast natural resources such as oil, uranium, natural gas, and lithium, making them a focal point for Chinese state-owned companies active in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. For example, Mali has one of the largest lithium reserves globally, and the Chinese company Jiangte Lithium has made significant investments in the country.
In addition to economic investments, China also seeks to develop and strengthen its military industry. Although many of its weapons have yet to be field-tested, China exploits conflicts in the Sahel to test its military products. These developments clearly reflect the stability and expansion of Chinese influence in the region in recent times.
Germany
Germany is considered a valuable country in the Sahel region, enjoying a reputation for reliability and efficiency in providing advice and military cooperation. However, Sahel confederation states reject the presence of Western military forces on their territory. In this context, Germany withdrew its troops from Niger, under military council control, on August 30, 2024. This withdrawal came after failed negotiations between the two sides regarding the continued operation of the German airbase there. This step, coinciding with a series of military coups in the region, means that Germany no longer has a military presence in the African Sahel.
In light of this vacuum, Russia has stepped in as a key partner for military councils in the region, with Niger leaders approaching Moscow for support, promoting their liberation from “imperialist” cooperation with Western countries. It’s noteworthy that Berlin had withdrawn its troops from Mali in July 2023, reflecting the decline of German military influence in the African Sahel.
Iran
Iran and other opponents of Western influence view the coups witnessed in the Sahel countries as a geopolitical opportunity to enhance their relations in Africa and more broadly in the Global South. Iran has solid relations with Burkina Faso and Mali, which have gained increasing importance following recent coups in Ouagadougou and Bamako. Iran seeks to fill the void left by France’s withdrawal from the region by offering assistance to the Malian military in combating Sunni jihadists. The Iranian leadership tries to persuade Malian officials that it is a strong partner in the fight against ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliated militias based on its experience combating these organizations in the Levant.
Despite the ideological dimensions of Iranian foreign policy in Burkina Faso, Mali, and other African states, economic factors play an important role in these relations. Amid U.S.-led sanctions against Iran, Tehran is looking east and south for ways to circumvent the sanctions and bolster its struggling economy. Burkina Faso, Mali, and other countries in the Sahel serve as significant repositories of gold, uranium, lithium, and other valuable natural resources. Deals with these countries could provide opportunities for Iranian companies to exploit these resources and mitigate the impact of sanctions. However, there remain limits to what these developing countries can offer Iran.
Turkey
As part of Ankara’s strategy to expand its influence in Africa, Turkey has seen a notable increase in its presence in the Confederation of Sahel States in recent years. Turkey seeks to enhance its presence in the region through a mix of soft power, economic investments, developmental aid, alongside an increasing role in both military and diplomatic spheres. These moves are part of a broader Turkish strategy to strengthen its regional and global influence amid competition with global powers such as France, Russia, and China, which have long-standing interests in the region.
In the context of Turkey’s rapprochement with Sahel states, a high-level delegation of Turkish ministers and officials recently visited Niger to discuss ways to strengthen political and economic cooperation, as well as discuss developments in the Sahel region and regional issues, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Earlier this year, Niger’s Prime Minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, visited Turkey, where the visiting Turkish ministers aimed to build on agreements made during that visit. Turkey has a significant presence in Niger, both in the public and private sectors, with Turkish companies investing and undertaking projects in the fields of energy, services, and construction.
Ukraine
Economic relations between Ukraine and the Sahel Confederation countries are minimal in terms of trade volume. However, relations witnessed notable developments on July 26, when a convoy of Russian Wagner mercenaries and troops from the Malian army came under attack from separatists in northern Mali. Following the attack, Andriy Yusov, an official representative of the Ukrainian intelligence agency, and the Ukrainian ambassador to Senegal, Yuri Pivovarov, spoke of Ukraine’s support for this operation. Although Kyiv denied any involvement in a terrorist attack against the Malian army, some reports indicated a possible connection between Ukraine and events in Azawad, without conclusive evidence to confirm these claims.
Despite statements from some Ukrainian officials indicating their country’s support for the crisis there, these allegations still require verification and confirmation. In light of these developments, Bamako severed diplomatic relations with Kyiv and expelled the Ukrainian ambassador from Mali, prompting Burkina Faso and Niger to take similar steps, accusing Ukraine of supporting terrorist groups in Mali. These decisions likely came as part of attempts to appease supporters of the military council in Bamako, especially in light of the losses suffered by the army in the “Battle of Tinzouatin.”
Conclusion
In conclusion, foreign influence in the Confederation of Sahel States reflects the complexity and intertwining of regional and international interests in this strategic region. The foreign policies of major powers highlight a clear competition for natural resources, geographic significance, and the importance of the area as a hub for international security. Conversely, it is clear that foreign interventions, whether through economic aid or military involvement, often have dual effects: they may help achieve stability on one hand, but they may also lead to the creation of new tensions and increase political and economic dependency on the other.
Based on the aforementioned, it is essential for the confederation states to find a balance between benefiting from international support and reinforcing their political independence while developing sustainable strategies for development and self-security. Additionally, enhancing regional cooperation and relying on local solutions may be key to mitigating the influence of foreign powers and avoiding falling into the fray of power struggles among major countries.
