In its fourth month, the flames of the Kenyan revolution, ignited by Generation Z in June 2024, have dimmed. After the revolutionary demands of Kenya’s youth soared to the level of toppling the political regime’s leadership, dramatic changes occurred, shifting the revolution from the streets to the halls of political institutions. Within these halls, the movement fragmented and the demands dispersed, plunging the revolution into a state of clinical death—alive but immobile. It remains in this state until it gasps out its last demands, the revolutionary tide recedes, and the revolutionaries turn to their personal goals, lamenting the lost opportunity now and then.
Revolutionary fervor quickly waned from the streets and squares of Nairobi. Many leading figures of the revolutionary movement rushed to establish political parties, capitalizing on the momentum gained from calls for policy, and even personnel changes within the Kenyan ruling regime. However, as they turned their faces towards institutional political work, differences surfaced among them, visions diverged, and criticisms and accusations circulated, muffling the voice of the revolution while the noise of political debate rose.
Thus, the ruling political regime in Kenya narrowly escaped a collapse that nearly became reality, mainly because the revolutionaries hastened to reap the benefits of their revolution and rushed to convert it into their personal political assets (a common disease of revolutions and a trick of their adversaries). In light of these dramatic developments and considering the nature of Kenya’s political culture, there is an urgent need to anticipate the future trajectories of Generation Z’s revolution in Kenya.
This article addresses this issue through the following points:
First: The Economy as the Driving Force of Generation Z’s Revolution
The living conditions of Kenyans deteriorated significantly due to rising unemployment, high inflation rates, lack of social justice, and other entrenched economic problems. These issues have burdened successive Kenyan governments, compelling them to seek more loans and impose additional taxes. Such measures have provoked widespread resentment among the Kenyan populace, which has faced successive waves of rising prices that have hit their already meager incomes.
Recently, the Kenyan government intended to pass a fiscal law (the 2024-2025 budget), which proposed tax increases across most sectors, leading to hikes in the prices of goods and services, including essential commodities that directly affect the livelihoods of Kenyans. Once news of this law broke, protests erupted in Nairobi and several other cities, encompassing all ethnic affiliations and social classes, especially the youth.
The Kenyan government responded with excessive violence to these protests, resulting in dozens of casualties and injuries, which ignited the youth’s enthusiasm and strengthened their resolve to continue protesting against government policies. Subsequently, the government backed down from issuing this law, with President William Ruto himself announcing that he would not sign it in response to the people’s demands. Nevertheless, the youth’s revolution did not quell; they continued protesting, with calls for the entire ruling regime’s departure, including President Ruto. In response, the president dismissed the government, restructured it, including opponents in key positions, and called for a national dialogue to discuss the youth’s demands and propose appropriate solutions to address them. Thus, the intensity of the revolutionary movement diminished.
Second: Politics Changing the Course and Faces of the Revolution
As the Kenyan youth revolution calmed somewhat, its prominent figures quickly rushed to capitalize on the political momentum it generated. Particularly significant was that the events revealed a notable reduction in ethnic considerations within its activities and interactions. Among the notable figures was young opposition political activist Morara Kibasoo (29 years old), who launched the “Injection of National Justice, Economic and Civic Transformation” (INJECT) party and called on the rebellious youth across the country to join his fledgling party. He asserted that he would transform the political landscape in Kenya, claiming he would sweep the parliament and all electoral seats like a sudden flood and would present candidates for all electoral positions, including the presidency and governorships, in the 2027 elections.
However, a sharp division among the youthful revolutionaries began to emerge as soon as Kibasoo started registering his new party; activist Mercy Tarus criticized Kibasoo, who she had previously supported, accusing him of pursuing selfish political ambitions by establishing his party. She tweeted on X, stating: “We may face the same enemy, but our reasons differ; some seek political power.”
At the same time, supporters of Kibasoo’s new party began to criticize the young political activist Kasmuel McOure, who gained significant popularity during the protests due to his eloquence and ability to articulate youth concerns. After once being regarded as a strong ally of Kibasoo, he was accused of political betrayal for failing to condemn the attack against Kibasoo during a political gathering in Nairobi. They pointed to his alleged betrayal through his repeated meetings with veteran politicians, particularly Raila Odinga, the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). McOure responded to these accusations by asserting that he meets with veteran politicians for political guidance, tweeting that: “You can accuse me of many things, but not of lacking transparency about the movement.”
Third: How and Why the Generation Z Revolution Calmed Down?
Kenya has witnessed many political transformations throughout its history and has gone through various political upheavals due to the nature of its society. The ethnic structure is considered one of the most influential factors in the Kenyan political scene. The ethnic plurality in Kenyan society is characterized by significant diversity and a balance at the same time; there is no dominant ethnicity in numbers. The population is ethnically divided into: Kikuyu (22%), Luhya (14%), Luo (13%), Kalenjin (12%), Kamba (11%), Kisii (6%), Meru (6%), and other African groups (15%), along with Asians, Arabs, and Europeans (1%). Consequently, no ethnicity can achieve an electoral majority without support from several other ethnic groups, fostering a climate of shifting electoral coalitions and alliances. Today’s ally may become tomorrow’s competitor.
Unlike previous patterns, ethnic considerations were absent in Kenya’s Generation Z revolution, with its roots firmly in the economic crisis affecting all segments of Kenyan society, especially the unemployed youth. This situation endowed their revolution with robust momentum and garnered widespread support. Thus, the ruling regime did not need to do more than sow discord among its protesting opponents to divert their attention from opposing its policies, which indeed happened. The Kenyan government began to declare its intention to reintroduce some tax measures it had previously rescinded following the protests in June.
Despite no significant change in the Kenyan economic crisis and the tax measures announced by the government, calm prevailed in the Kenyan political scene, and protests did not renew. This calm can, in part, be attributed to the inclusion of opposition ministers in the new government formation, particularly since the new finance minister, John Mbadi, hails from Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
However, the primary reason for the tranquility in the Kenyan political scene and the division within the youth protest movement lies in the focus of the revolution’s figures—or those who can be called leaders of the popular movement—on establishing new political parties for electoral competition and beginning to weave a network of alliances with old political parties in preparation for the 2027 elections.
Fourth: The Future of Generation Z’s Revolution in Kenya
The ethnic structure of Kenyan society has entrenched a culture of temporary electoral coalitions and alliances that tend to change with each electoral milestone. This compels political forces to start early in weaving their network of alliances to secure a majority or at least a share of power that reflects their relative weight. Therefore, one can understand the rapid move of figures from the Kenyan youth revolution to form new parties or negotiate with old ones in an effort to ensure a share of power seats through the 2027 elections. For these reasons, it can be asserted that the future of Generation Z’s revolution, which flared up and then calmed between June and August 2024, is likely limited to three scenarios:
Scenario One: Reviving the revolution, with another surge of revolutionary energy flooding the streets and squares of Kenya due to the government’s failure to alleviate the economic crisis and a return to the same tax policies that had provoked the Kenyan population, even if under different names or forms. This is the least likely scenario for the future of Kenya’s Generation Z revolution.
Scenario Two: The Kenyan revolutionaries, especially those from Generation Z, rallying around the new party established by young opposition leader Morara Kibasoo, successfully mobilizing the masses, thereby shifting the balance of power in the Kenyan political system, pulling the rug from under the old parties and gaining access to power seats. This scenario is the more probable path for the future of Kenya’s Generation Z revolution.
Scenario Three: A fragmentation of Generation Z, leading to the emergence of more new parties and the scattering of the masses between old and new political forces, which would consequently allow the ethnic variables to return to dominate the Kenyan political landscape and influence its outcomes. This path is the most likely and consistent with the Kenyan political culture.
Sources
Sertan Sanderson, “Kenya’s Youthful Protesters Unimpressed By Cabinet Changes”, on All Africa Website, Last Visit at 1:20 pm, 16 Oct. 2024, at Link:
https://allafrica.com/stories/202407270022.html
Victor Abuso, “New kids on the block: Kenya: Gen Z form INJECT party to remove Ruto from power in 2027” on The Africa Report Website, Last Visit at 1:25 pm, 16 Oct. 2024, at Link:
Morara Kebaso Receives Approval to Register new Political Party”, Pulse Live Kenya Website, Last Visit at 1:40 pm, 16 Oct. 2024, at Link:
