Challenges Facing “Baghdad”: Why Did Iraq Postpone Ending the Mission of the International Coalition Forces?
In a significant development likely to directly influence the trajectory of Iraqi-American relations, the government of Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani decided in August 2024 to delay the announcement of the end of the international coalition mission led by the United States. The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs attributed this decision to “recent developments.” This announcement comes at a time when Iraqi political forces and Iran-aligned militias are intensifying their pressure on the government to end the American presence in Iraq (Iraq hosts about 2,500 American soldiers), especially in light of the ongoing Israeli war in Gaza and the associated military escalations on various regional fronts. Without a doubt, Baghdad’s decision cannot be separated from ongoing concerns about the possibility of a direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran on July 31, 2024, after he attended the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian.
Multiple Motivations
There are several reasons and considerations linked to Iraq’s decision to postpone ending the mission of the international coalition, which has been led by Washington since 2014. The most prominent among them include:
Escalating Regional Tensions Between Iran and Israel: The postponement of ending the international coalition’s mission is partly due to escalating regional tensions and growing fears of a direct military confrontation between Iran and its regional proxies on one side, and Israel and the United States on the other. Iran and Hezbollah have repeatedly threatened to launch military attacks against Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, and Fouad Shaker, a senior Hezbollah official. While Israel prepares for a possible Iranian attack, its ally, Washington, has recently strengthened its military presence in the region—a move Baghdad perceives as potentially having several negative repercussions on its security and interests, especially with the possibility of Iraq becoming a battleground for military escalations between these parties.
The Continued Threat of ISIS to Iraq’s Security: Iraq’s decision is also tied to ongoing warnings from its security agencies about the potential resurgence of ISIS activity, especially after reports surfaced of the group attempting to reorganize and bolster its sleeper cells within Iraq. According to a statement from the U.S. Central Command in mid-July 2024, ISIS claimed responsibility for 153 attacks during the first half of 2024 in various parts of Iraq, including the provinces of Diyala, Kirkuk, and Salahuddin, where ISIS fighters launched assaults on Iraqi army positions and Kurdish Peshmerga forces. Thus, the decision to delay the coalition’s withdrawal aims to mitigate the risks posed by the recent increase in ISIS activities.
Strengthening Security Cooperation with Washington: Iraq is currently keen on bolstering security cooperation with the United States as part of a broader plan to modernize its military, which has been struggling with declining capabilities. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani views Washington as a key partner in rebuilding Iraq’s military. This was evident during his visit to the United States in April 2024, where he secured an arms deal that included modern F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems. The U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) also announced in the same month the signing of a joint working protocol with Iraq for a military deal valued at around $550 million.
Balancing Continuous Iranian Pressure on Baghdad: Despite the close relations between Prime Minister Al-Sudani and Iran, and his commitment to a significant portion of the policies of the Shiite Coordination Framework that supported his rise to power, Al-Sudani may be attempting to neutralize or balance the Iranian pressures that aim to control his foreign policy moves. Keeping the coalition forces in Iraq serves as a strategic card for Al-Sudani, potentially allowing him to manage or limit the influence of Iran-backed Iraqi factions that operate outside the authority of the Iraqi state.
Preparing for a Potential Iranian Opening to the West: Statements from Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, indicate a desire to reset Iran’s foreign policy by engaging in “constructive dialogue” with Europeans and reviving negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. This suggests a clear Iranian effort to strengthen relations with Western countries, particularly the United States. The new Iranian president has shown less enthusiasm for a military response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, focusing instead on using the incident to halt the war in Gaza and reduce the pressures and sanctions on Iran by convincing Western countries that Iran is shifting towards a different policy. In this context, Al-Sudani’s decision to postpone ending the international coalition’s mission can be understood as a move to secure Iraq’s position in Western strategy should Pezeshkian succeed in improving relations with the West.
Potential Consequences
Iraq’s decision to delay ending the international coalition mission could have several potential consequences, including:
Neutralizing Security Threats to Iraq’s National Security: With the continued presence of international coalition forces in Iraq in the coming period, it is possible that Iraqi security agencies and forces will enhance their capabilities and succeed in curbing the growing activities of ISIS, which have become more prominent recently, taking advantage of Iraq’s internal security disruptions due to clashes between Iraqi militias and U.S. forces, as well as the repercussions of the Israeli war in Gaza, which these militias have engaged in with Iran’s tacit approval.
Increased Pressure on Al-Sudani’s Government by Shiite Militias: The coming period may see increased pressure from Iran-aligned Iraqi factions and militias, especially the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which oppose the presence of international coalition forces in Iraq. These groups may intensify their efforts to push the Iraqi government to end the coalition’s mission. Additionally, these factions might resume attacks on U.S. military bases and coalition points in Syria or Iraq to embarrass Al-Sudani’s government, using the Gaza war as a justification for their actions.
Consolidation of U.S. Military Presence in Iraq: Delaying the end of the coalition forces’ mission could contribute to solidifying the U.S. military presence in Iraq in the near future. This presence is of particular importance to the United States at the moment, given the escalating regional tensions and the growing fears of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. Considering Washington’s commitment to defending Israel against any threats, maintaining its military presence in Iraq would allow the U.S. to take necessary security measures, whether to protect Israel or to safeguard its strategic interests in the region.
A New Phase
In conclusion, Al-Sudani’s government’s decision to delay ending the international coalition’s mission indicates that Iraq is likely entering a new phase, which may witness heightened tensions with Iran-aligned Shiite factions advocating for the withdrawal of U.S. forces. However, this decision may also help Al-Sudani manage his relations with Washington, which could play a crucial role in bolstering his political position and securing his place in Iraq’s political landscape, especially as the country prepares for important legislative elections in 2025, in which Al-Sudani hopes to achieve significant results.
