During a meeting of the foreign ministers of member states in Brussels on January 27, the European Union decided to ease sanctions imposed on Syria since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011. This move aims to encourage the new Syrian government to embark on a comprehensive political transition process. A political consensus was reached among European nations to ease sanctions in the energy and transport sectors, although it has not yet been determined whether the financial sector will be included in this easing immediately.
Main Reasons
The EU’s decision to ease sanctions on Syria is based on a variety of political, economic, and strategic factors:
Political Change in Syria: The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 led to significant changes in the Syrian political landscape. The EU found itself in a difficult position after these changes, as maintaining sanctions without reassessing their effectiveness and impacts was no longer feasible, especially since the new authorities pledged to undertake comprehensive political reforms, including respect for freedoms and human rights. This prompted European countries to adopt a more flexible approach to support this transitional phase. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen noted that Europeans have much hope but simultaneously want to encourage the new Syrian government to be inclusive in all its decisions while planning for the future.
European Commissioner for Equality, Helena Dalli, affirmed on January 17, 2025, during her visit to Syria—the first by an EU representative after Assad’s regime fell—Europe’s desire to see an inclusive government that represents all components of Syrian society rather than a new dictatorial regime. These statements reflect the EU’s position that the new administration must be inclusive and represent all factions to ensure the success of the upcoming political phase. Furthermore, the new Syrian government has begun taking practical steps to improve the internal situation by inviting international and regional organizations to participate in reconstruction efforts. It has also expressed a desire to normalize foreign relations with Western countries, providing a strong incentive for Europeans to consider lifting sanctions as part of supporting the political transition. Additionally, the change in Syrian leadership has given Europeans an opportunity to rearrange their priorities in the region, moving away from previous policies of isolating the former regime toward adopting a new European approach.
Stimulating Reconstruction and Stability in Syria: The European move aims to support reconstruction efforts; vital infrastructure was destroyed during the war. Lifting sanctions presents an opportunity to attract foreign investments and revitalize the ailing Syrian economy, contributing to political and social stability. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shibani asserted during a discussion with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair at the Davos Forum in Switzerland on January 22, 2025, that lifting economic sanctions is key to stability in Syria. Reconstruction has become a pressing necessity due to the need to repair roads, rehabilitate electricity and water networks, and provide housing for the displaced. The EU believes that easing sanctions may facilitate the flow of resources needed for these projects. Moreover, enhancing economic activity could alleviate social pressures, as new job opportunities will be available for those affected by the war, reducing widespread poverty.
Additionally, Syria’s stability serves European interests, as economic and political chaos in the country could lead to a new wave of refugees heading to Europe—a scenario that European countries seek to avoid. Thus, lifting sanctions represents a proactive step to support stability and minimize the likelihood of new humanitarian crises in the region. In this context, European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas confirmed that lifting some sanctions could stimulate the Syrian economy and help the country recover, adding that the EU would also work to increase humanitarian aid and support reconstruction.
Impact of Humanitarian Considerations on the European Decision: According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 90% of Syrians suffer from poverty, and the economic blockade and sanctions have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. Europe seeks to alleviate suffering by allowing the flow of humanitarian aid and supporting essential sectors such as food and fuel. Previously imposed sanctions made it difficult to import basic goods, worsening living conditions for the population.
These restrictions have led to acute shortages of food, fuel, and medicines, prompting many humanitarian organizations to call for a reevaluation of these policies. As a result, European countries saw that continuing sanctions no longer achieved their political objectives but instead became a factor negatively impacting the Syrian people. With Syria entering a transitional phase, easing sanctions would allow humanitarian support to reach more effectively, improving living conditions and reducing civilian suffering. Furthermore, lifting sanctions enables international relief organizations to operate more freely in Syria without fear of the legal repercussions that were previously imposed.
Attempt to Maintain European Influence in the Syrian File: The United States granted some exemptions to sanctions regarding financial dealings with the new Syrian government for six months, prompting the EU to follow suit. Europeans seek to preserve their influence in the Syrian file and not leave the field open for the U.S. and Russia. The changing U.S. stance, which has seen partial easing of sanctions, has placed Europeans in a difficult position: to either continue the economic isolation of Syria or adopt a more flexible approach that ensures them a foothold in the country’s future political and economic landscape. Additionally, Russia, the former regime’s main supporter, has begun to reduce its direct intervention in Syria, opening the door for Europeans to play a more active role. In this context, the EU’s lifting of sanctions can be interpreted as an attempt to ensure a significant European role in the reconstruction phase and to influence the country’s future.
Potential for Syria to Play a Role in European Energy Security: The energy sector is one of the most significant factors that contributed to the EU’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria, as Syria could play a role in the regional energy market, potentially contributing to relative stability in Europe in this area, especially following the crises caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war. Before the Syrian war, Syria was the largest oil exporter in the Eastern Mediterranean, but the ongoing conflict has turned it into an oil importer, particularly from Iran, changing its role in the regional energy equation. Syria’s oil production has sharply declined, with outputs dropping from 400,000 barrels per day before the war. Some European entities believe that restarting the Syrian energy sector could help stabilize regional markets, with Syria potentially becoming a new energy supplier or a transit point for gas and oil between the Middle East and Europe. However, this vision faces political and security challenges, particularly the situation in northeastern Syria.
Wider Implications
The EU’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria is expected to have notable implications:
Strengthening Economic Relations between Syria and Europe: Lifting sanctions is expected to reopen financial and trade channels between Syria and the EU, allowing for the return of European investments and contributing to the recovery of the war-torn Syrian economy. The opening of Syrian markets to European companies could provide significant economic opportunities for both parties, as European companies can tap into a new market seeking reconstruction and development while Syria can benefit from investments that support infrastructure and industry. Moreover, enhanced economic relations may contribute to improved diplomatic cooperation, as both sides will find common ground to work on political and security issues of mutual interest. In this context, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shibani praised the EU’s positive decision, affirming via platform X that it would have a positive impact on all aspects of daily life for the Syrian people.
Rehabilitation of Infrastructure in Syria: The EU’s decision to lift some sanctions will enable the Syrian government to restart vital facilities, such as electricity generation and transport, helping to improve the country’s living standards and ultimately strengthen internal stability. After years of war, most of the basic infrastructure has been damaged, leading to interruptions in essential services like water, transport, and electricity (with many areas receiving less than three hours of daily supply from state facilities).
Easing sanctions will allow Syria to import the necessary equipment and materials to rebuild roads, bridges, airports, and ports, contributing to improved daily livelihoods for residents. Additionally, infrastructure development will create new economic opportunities, as reconstruction projects will provide jobs for local workers. While this path seems promising, its implementation requires effective and transparent management to ensure maximum benefits from investments. However, the U.S. Caesar Act still poses a barrier to some investment projects, imposing strict restrictions on any economic dealings with the Syrian government, potentially limiting European companies’ ability to engage effectively in the Syrian market.
Growing Divisions within Europe Regarding Engagement with Damascus: The decision faced notable criticism from some European countries and human rights organizations worried about the new Syrian authorities’ commitment to their reform obligations. There are concerns that easing sanctions may legitimize a government that has not yet made sufficient progress in human rights and political freedoms. Furthermore, the continued classification of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization by the EU complicates cooperation between the two parties, as some European nations fear that lifting sanctions could enhance the position of extremist groups in Syria, potentially affecting regional stability.
In this context, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian stated that any suspension of sanctions must be accompanied by a political transition that includes all Syrians, along with decisive measures to prevent ISIS from regrouping. Some interpretations suggest that the EU links its support for the new government to its ability to prevent the resurgence of extremist organizations that were active in recent years. While some European countries like France, Germany, and the Netherlands see this decision as an opportunity to reintegrate Syria into the international system, other countries, particularly in Northern Europe, prefer a more cautious approach, fearing that this decision might facilitate the re-financing of terrorism.
Possibility of Refugees Returning to Syria: The lifting of sanctions and improved economic conditions may encourage some Syrian refugees to return to their country. However, this largely depends on the Syrian government’s ability to provide a safe and stable environment that guarantees the rights of returnees and offers them job and housing opportunities. Many refugees fear returning amid unclear security guarantees or the lack of adequate infrastructure to accommodate them.
The international community will monitor the Syrian government’s capacity to implement policies that accommodate returnees and provide them with decent living conditions. On the other hand, the voluntary return of refugees would alleviate the burdens faced by host European countries, as the refugee issue poses a significant political and economic challenge. However, achieving this scenario depends on the seriousness of the Syrian government in creating suitable conditions for voluntary return.
Retaining the Possibility of Re-imposing Sanctions on Damascus: Lifting sanctions is not a final decision; rather, it is conditional upon the Syrian government respecting human rights and the rights of minorities, as well as implementing political and economic reforms that ensure stability. Should serious violations occur or decisions contradicting European standards be made, the EU could reinstate sanctions, placing the Syrian government under constant pressure to uphold its commitments.
In this context, European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that “the EU wants to act quickly, but the lifting of sanctions can be revoked if poor decisions are made.” This statement reflects the cautious European policy that relies on a gradual approach, where sanctions are lifted in phases with close monitoring of the Syrian government’s performance.
In conclusion, the EU’s decision to lift some sanctions on Syria represents a conditional strategic step aimed at encouraging political transition in the country, ensuring that the easing of sanctions is neither final nor irreversible. This measure falls within a European approach based on balancing conditional openness with security caution, where some restrictions remain in place, particularly concerning weapons and dual-use technologies.
