Armed conflicts lead to the disintegration of a country’s structure and the fragmentation of its institutions. When these conflicts reach their end, the recovery phase begins. This phase requires reliance on accurate and updated data to guide reconstruction and peace-building efforts. However, such conflicts, especially if prolonged, cast a dark shadow over the country’s statistical system, affecting both its ability to continue producing official data and the level of trust in the data it generates, as data-producing institutions usually do not enjoy the trust of the conflicting parties.
The process of providing data during the recovery period becomes highly significant. On one hand, there is a need for data to determine the basic needs of citizens and to target humanitarian aid effectively to the most vulnerable groups. On the other hand, there is an urgent need to monitor progress in the recovery process and to enhance stability in order to uphold transparency and accountability during periods of political fluidity and low trust levels.
Numerous challenges:
The statistical system faces numerous challenges during the recovery period, varying in intensity based on the duration and nature of the conflict, as well as differing from one country to another. These challenges include:
- A shortage of qualified human resources due to emigration from the country during the conflict, or due to death or inability to work, and a decline in the qualification level of available human resources due to lack of practice and/or lack of training during the conflict.
- A scarcity of material resources required to conduct censuses and field surveys.
- Weak technological infrastructure, including computers, networks, data centers, software, and electronic packages, and limited logistical services required to carry out statistical tasks related to data collection throughout the country.
- The inapplicability of traditional statistical methods in the absence of updated maps of population clusters and economic facilities, and the lack of updated sampling frameworks.
- Limited capacity for innovation to adapt conventional statistical methodologies to a different context.
Information gaps:
The data required for managing recovery from armed conflicts varies from one country to another, as well as depending on the context. In most cases, the following data form the cornerstone of the recovery management data system:
- Data on the population, including:
- Population numbers and their distribution by place of residence, age, gender, educational status, marital status, employment status, chronic diseases, and disabilities.
- Internal migration of the population during the armed conflict, including data on population displacement between regions within the country’s borders.
- External migration of the population, including data on displacement outside the country’s borders, as well as incoming population from non-citizens who arrived during the armed conflict.
- Data of a political and security nature, including:
- Data related to the course of the political process, especially the number of eligible voters and the number of foreign residents.
- Data related to maintaining public security, including the security status of geographical areas, human resources, equipment, facilities, and communication systems necessary to achieve peace and security.
- Data (maps) on hazardous areas (containing mines), geographical areas experiencing violent incidents and/or tensions, and environmental pollution (water – soil).
- Data related to transitional justice.
- Data of a social nature, including:
- Data on healthcare facilities and the availability of medicines and medical supplies.
- Data on educational services (schools, universities, educational resources).
- Data on available human resources, especially those working in the health, security, relief, educational, and state administration sectors according to specializations.
- Data related to required humanitarian needs, especially food, psychological care for victims, shelter, and protection from hazards.
- Data related to the economic structure, including:
- Economic facilities and their readiness to resume production.
- Markets.
- Banks and ATMs.
- Prices and distribution.
- Strategic stock of essential food commodities.
- Supply chains for essential goods (food, medicine, relief supplies, building materials).
- Data on infrastructure:
Including data on roads, bridges, sources of electricity, sources of clean water, sanitation, telephone and internet communications, ports, airports, and transportation within and between population clusters.
Rebuilding the statistical system:
The national statistical system consists of several interacting elements to enhance statistical work to provide reliable indicators and evidence that can be relied upon in decision-making and policy-making that serve the interests of society. To achieve this goal, the statistical system must be participatory in setting priorities and avoiding conflicts of interest, and inclusive of all stakeholders from data producers and users. The National Statistics Office plays an important role in this system and must fulfill its role in a participatory manner with other stakeholders.
It is preferable for the list of data producers to include all those who contribute to data production, whether for statistical purposes or for other purposes such as administrative databases designed for administrative, financial, or security purposes, or big data designed for commercial or operational purposes. This inclusive approach gains particular importance during post-conflict recovery periods, as it allows overcoming the scarcity of official data, and expanding the involvement of data producers plays a significant role in enhancing trust in the recovery process in general and in data outputs in particular.
One of the main priorities at the beginning of the recovery period from armed conflicts is rebuilding the statistical system. This process includes several components, starting with assessing the current state of the statistical system, based on which a plan for rebuilding the statistical system in the country is developed, then mobilizing the necessary resources to implement the plan, followed by the actual implementation of rebuilding the statistical system. To ensure the achievement of the goal, a monitoring and evaluation system must be designed that reflects the plan’s objectives in the form of indicators that periodically measure performance levels, allowing for assessing the success of rebuilding the statistical system on one hand, and identifying lessons learned on the other hand, and then reordering priorities and reviewing resource allocation. Figure (1) shows some details about the components of rebuilding the statistical system.
| Phase | Components |
|---|---|
| Assessment of Current State | – Identify damages to the statistical infrastructure. – Assess available human resources for statistical work. – Inventory available maps, data, and statistical work guides. |
| Developing a Rebuilding Plan | – Determine work priorities (capacity building, technological infrastructure, work systems). – Design a timeline (short, medium, long term). – Estimate required resources (material, human, technological, logistical). – Establish a system for managing the rebuilding of the statistical system. |
| Designing a Monitoring and Evaluation System | – Set quantitative goals and performance indicators (KPIs). – Work on building trust in the statistical system. |
| Mobilizing Resources for Plan Implementation | – Identify human resources and plan for capacity building and training content preparation. – List priority preparatory tasks. – Provide necessary financial resources for plan implementation. – Coordinate with concerned government institutions. – Engage with supporting international institutions. |
| Implementation of the Plan | – Train human resources. – Prepare/update statistical work guides. – Prepare/update maps, sample frames, and databases. – Conduct censuses (population, buildings/facilities). – Conduct surveys (health, labor force, poverty). – Conduct public opinion polls (challenges faced by populations in different regions). |
| Monitoring and Evaluating the Rebuilding | – Periodically calculate performance indicators for geographic areas by independent entities. – Prepare periodic reports on performance evaluation and analysis of lessons learned. – Adjust plans, priorities, and allocate resources according to evaluation results. |
Updated data characterized by accuracy, comprehensiveness, and reliability are one of the essential conditions for the success of the recovery process from armed conflicts, especially in relation to decision-making regarding reconstruction, distributing aid to those in need and compensation to victims, and providing basic needs to the population in all areas of the country. Data play an important role in resource allocation and priority setting. One of the major challenges facing the data production, analysis, and dissemination system in post-conflict periods is the low level of trust in statistical outputs among conflict parties and the general public. This may be due to historical reasons related to the politicization of statistics to conceal government failures or exaggerate achievements, coupled with the absence of a governance system for data production, analysis, and dissemination in the absence of statistical agency independence.
The success of the country in its new form in the post-armed conflict phase largely depends on its ability to build trust among former enemies. There is a hierarchical relationship between building trust in statistical institutions and the success of the country’s efforts to restore stability in the post-conflict period. Strict adherence to producing accurate and comprehensive statistics based on sound methodologies, explained to potential users and simplified for the general public, with a high level of transparency in explaining the limitations of the results, leads to building trust in statistical institutions. A high level of trust in the statistical system makes it easier for conflicting parties to reach agreements by relying on statistical products from credible institutions in negotiation and community dialogue processes.
Rebuilding the statistical system in the post-armed conflict period must not be a repetition of the past but should be subject to a precise governance system characterized by the inclusion of both statistical producers and users from government and non-government institutions, and characterized by absolute professionalism free from political interference and deals, and adherence to international standards at all stages of statistical production, especially comprehensive quality standards, ethical standards, respect for human rights, protection of personal data privacy, and taking all measures to prevent the use of personal data in a manner that causes any harm to data providers; to achieve this, senior officials of statistical institutions must have independence and immunity from dismissal under the governance rules of the country’s statistical system.
At first glance, building the statistical system may seem like a luxury that a country exhausted by armed conflicts cannot afford, but the reality is that delaying or neglecting to build the statistical system is a luxury that the country cannot afford; because it is the lifeline to reach safety.
