What Lies Behind the Century Agreement Between Britain and Ukraine?

On January 16, 2025, Britain and Ukraine signed a 100-year cooperation agreement following Britain’s announcement of $3.6 billion in military aid for Ukraine this year. The agreement was announced at a joint press conference in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, at the palace of President Volodymyr Zelensky. This agreement builds upon the security pact signed by President Zelensky with former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Agreement Terms:

The agreement includes several provisions aimed at enhancing joint defense capabilities and regional security, fostering consensus on Ukraine’s NATO membership, enhancing maritime security partnerships, and strengthening economic cooperation, along with procedural provisions related to amending the agreement and handling disputes between the parties, as follows:

1. Strengthening Defense Capabilities: The agreement emphasizes the parties’ commitment to deepening defense cooperation, enhancing defense industries, developing forces, and collaborating within military industrial bases to boost Ukraine’s defense capabilities. The focus is on technology transfer, innovation, and protecting intellectual property rights, aligning with NATO requirements.
2. Enhancing Security and Building Consensus on NATO Membership: It stresses the importance of the British-Ukrainian partnership in enhancing European security and emphasizes Ukraine’s role in regional stability and its potential as a future NATO ally.
3. Enhancing Maritime Security Partnership: This provision aims to address maritime security threats and challenges, working to restore freedom of navigation and establishing a maritime security partnership to bolster security in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas.
4. Strengthening Economic and Trade Cooperation: The agreement fosters a conducive environment for trade and investment in both countries across various sectors including transportation, energy, and infrastructure, targeting economic prosperity and resilience while addressing inequality and poverty.
5. Climate Cooperation and Energy Transition: The parties commit to collaborating on sustainable energy principles and facilitating investment conditions in Ukraine’s energy sector.
6. Increasing Cooperation on Justice and Accountability: This includes deepening cooperation between legal sectors and criminal justice, enhancing collaboration on sanctions, and taking steps to hold countries accountable for international law violations.
7. Combating Information Manipulation and Foreign Interference: The parties will strengthen institutional links to address manipulation and foreign interference in information and develop necessary capabilities to respond effectively to information threats.
8. Enhancing Their Status as Leaders in Science, Innovation, and Technology: The agreement underlines the importance of addressing shared challenges and harnessing opportunities for sustainable, inclusive growth.
9. Enhancing Social and Cultural Links: Cooperation in human rights, gender equality, social inclusion, health, education, climate, and sports is emphasized to foster community closeness, with a focus on cultural cooperation and preserving cultural heritage.
10. Collaboration on Migration: The agreement affirms joint efforts in migration, asylum, and border management, addressing root causes of irregular migration and establishing effective policies against illegal migration, human trafficking, and arms smuggling.

Procedural Provisions in the Agreement:

1. Delegated Agencies and Additional Arrangements: The parties may appoint delegated bodies as needed to develop and implement obligations under the agreement, which can also include supplemental arrangements for technical and executive cooperation.
2. Entry into Force, Duration, and Termination: The agreement takes effect upon both parties receiving subsequent notification indicating the completion of their internal procedures. It remains effective for 100 years unless terminated by either party with a written notice, effective six months after receipt.
3. Amendments: The agreement may be amended at any time by mutual consent, with modifications entering into force upon notification of completed internal processes by both parties.
4. Dispute Resolution: Any disputes concerning interpretation or application are to be resolved through consultations; they cannot be referred to any national or international court or third party. The agreement is signed in two copies in English and Ukrainian, with English being authoritative in case of discrepancies.

Britain’s Vision of Its Role in the Russo-Ukrainian War:

This agreement reflects Britain’s vision for its position in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the necessity for Britain to play a role in ceasefire negotiations and post-war scenarios aimed at ensuring Ukraine’s security:

• While Starmer did not commit to deploying military forces for post-war stabilization, he affirmed that Britain would collaborate with allies to guarantee Ukraine’s security and deter future aggression.
• Starmer anticipates that ceasefire discussions will continue for the coming months and aims for Britain to take a leading role in developing a “peace through strength” strategy in 2025.
• He stated that the West must provide strong security guarantees to Ukraine if a peace agreement is reached with Moscow, hinting at possible British troop deployment in Ukraine for training purposes, stressing that these guarantees should ensure lasting peace, not merely a temporary halt to hostilities.
• British officials mentioned that early ceasefire discussions focused on including British forces in an international peacekeeping role, but immediate attention remains on placing Ukraine in the strongest possible position for any peace talks.

European Movements:

The agreement coincides with several European initiatives aimed at enhancing Kyiv’s defense capabilities, such as a call from the French president to deploy Western units in Ukraine and military aid from Germany and Italy. Here’s a summary:

1. France’s Call for Western Units in Kyiv: French President Emmanuel Macron discussed with President Zelensky the possibility of deploying Western troops in Ukraine, though Zelensky did not clarify the nature of these forces.
2. Germany’s Military Aid to Ukraine: Germany has begun delivering advanced wheeled artillery to Ukraine, with a total of €28 billion in military support which includes various advanced weapons systems, although Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains hesitant about additional military assistance.
3. Meeting of the Italian Defense Minister with His Ukrainian Counterpart: The two sides agreed to enhance defense cooperation and initiate joint projects for Ukraine’s defense industries, reaffirming Italy’s commitment to send a new military aid package to Ukraine. Italy supports continuing the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meetings.

Geopolitical Landscape Changes:

The agreement emerges amidst developments stirring shifts in the European geopolitical landscape, including Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States, which signals potential changes in US-European relations. Russia’s attempts to undermine the agreement through intensified attacks on Kyiv coincide with internal European challenges:

1. Trump’s Inauguration: This could lead to fundamental changes in US-European relations, with Trump signaling a potential halt to US aid to Kyiv. Some Democrats stress the need for continued military support, while Rubio highlights Ukraine’s training and recruitment problems as crucial.
2. Russian Moves to Undermine the Agreement: This includes drone attacks on Kyiv during a meeting between Starmer and Zelensky, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressing concerns about Britain’s military commitment under the new agreement, viewing it negatively.
3. Increasing Capabilities of the Eastern European Bloc: The shifting landscape reveals a decline in Western bloc influence, juxtaposed with emerging alliances led by Poland and Hungary driven by common security concerns and economic interests.
4. European Elections: Recent elections spotlight significant political realignments and emerging geopolitical transformations marked by the rise of right-wing parties opposing green policies and pro-war stances, focusing instead on national issues.

Conclusion

In summary, Britain’s decision to establish this agreement with Ukraine is influenced by various factors, foremost of which is the British perception of its role in the region and the European sense of urgency regarding security self-reliance in light of Trump’s isolationist stance; suggesting that other countries may pursue similar agreements.