The way Netanyahu and his government are managing the war on Gaza indicates that the conflict is ongoing and may last for a prolonged period, with no immediate end in sight.
The Mentality of the Israeli Governing System:
Several indicators point to the mentality and nature of the Israeli ruling system:
Netanyahu’s Deep Desire to Stay in Power:
Netanyahu is fiercely motivated to remain prime minister and extend his government’s life for as long as possible. He is striving to achieve some kind of victory or accomplishment that would allow him to save face, especially in light of his significant failure to achieve his stated goals: crushing the resistance, “freeing” the captives held by Hamas, and imposing his vision for Gaza post-war. Netanyahu’s strategy of “moving forward” stems from his realization that any deal made under the terms of the resistance would essentially mark the end of his political career, and possibly lead to his imprisonment.
Likud and Religious Zionist Ideology:
The mindset of Likud and Religious Zionism is rooted in a supremacist outlook towards others. They do not treat others as equals and believe that what cannot be achieved by force can be accomplished with more force.
Calls for the Expulsion of Gazans and Expansion of Settlements:
Within the ruling system, there are demands to displace as many people from Gaza as possible and reactivate settlement projects, particularly in the northern part of the Strip.
Netanyahu’s State of Denial:
Netanyahu, with his arrogant, superior personality and strong sense of being Israel’s “uncrowned king” and one of the great figures in Jewish history, cannot fathom that he and his forces have been so humiliated. The fact that a “negligible entity” like Gaza has held out for eleven months against the “great power” of the Middle East and a global alliance is something he struggles to comprehend. Consequently, Netanyahu will continue his aggression with the mentality of a gambler, even if it exhausts him, in the hope that some opportunity may arise to rescue him from his predicament.
Netanyahu’s Seduction by Favorable Conditions:
Netanyahu and his extremist government are operating in an environment that encourages continued aggression. The official Palestinian leadership is weak, the authority in Ramallah collaborates with the occupation, opposes resistance in the West Bank, and hopes to inherit Gaza once Hamas falls.
Furthermore, the Arab and Islamic worlds are largely weak and helpless, with many quietly wishing for Israel’s victory and Hamas’s defeat. Some continue to normalize relations with Israel, providing it with many of its needs, while others actively participate in the blockade and cutting off the lifeline to the resistance. They also work to undermine the resistance politically and in the media.
On the international stage, despite growing sympathy for Gaza and Israel’s increasing isolation, the global community has proven incapable of stopping the brutal massacres and systematic destruction.
Netanyahu and his extremist circle are well aware of all these factors, which is why they believe there is still an opportunity to exploit and a “mirage” worth chasing in their quest to crush the resistance and subdue Gaza.
Indicators Linked to How the War is Being Managed:
Several signs suggest that the way the war on Gaza is being managed is designed to prolong it:
Deliberate Sabotage of Negotiations:
The intentional derailing of negotiations to reach a deal with Hamas and the resistance, by introducing new conditions—most notably, the fabricated issue of the Salah al-Din (Philadelphi) axis and the refusal to withdraw from it. This condition effectively blows up any future negotiations because it is rejected by the resistance, the Ramallah Authority, Egypt, and other Arab governments, and is opposed globally, even by Israel’s allies. It is a condition that Netanyahu set, knowing it would be rejected, giving him an excuse to continue the war.
Seeking a Prisoner Exchange Deal While Continuing the War:
Netanyahu is pushing for a prisoner exchange deal while insisting on continuing the war and refusing to fully withdraw from Gaza. This strategy separates the two tracks—allowing him to alleviate the pressures associated with freeing captives, which would then enable him to focus more effectively on pursuing and eliminating the resistance over a prolonged period.
Appointment of Elad Goren as Gaza’s Military Commander:
On August 28, the Israeli occupation announced the appointment of Brigadier General Elad Goren as the military commander of Gaza, with the title of “Head of Civil-Humanitarian Efforts.” This role is equivalent to the position of the head of the Civil Administration in the West Bank. His responsibility is to oversee civilian life in Gaza, including humanitarian aid, managing crossings, and handling long-term civil activities such as the return of displaced persons, restoration of civilian infrastructure, and reconstruction.
This appointment signals the occupation’s intention to remain in Gaza for years, aiming to build an alternative local authority to replace Hamas.
Between Israeli Conditions and the Resistance’s Terms
While the Israeli occupation seeks to crush the resistance and “liberate” its captives on its own terms, it aims to continue the war and remain in the Gaza Strip until it achieves its goals and imposes its vision for the post-war situation. This includes establishing a local puppet administration that disarms the resistance and ensures the security of Gaza’s surroundings. On the other hand, the resistance refuses to agree to any deal that does not guarantee a complete cessation of the war, full withdrawal from the Strip, and an honorable prisoner exchange deal.
This means that the maximum the Israelis are willing to offer does not meet the minimum that the resistance is willing to accept, which implies the continuation of the war. The resistance has no choice but to continue its strong performance and exhaust the occupation until Netanyahu is forced to meet its terms.
A Realistic Reading of the Situation
The above data reflect Netanyahu’s desire to prolong the war and extend his term as prime minister. However, it does not reflect his ability to enforce his wishes on the ground. A review of various factors shows that while they are presented within a strategic framework, they are essentially temporary tactical pressure tools.
There are five key points to consider when analyzing the situation:
The Israeli occupation, through its rigidity on the Salah al-Din (Philadelphia) axis and its proposal to appoint a military governor for the Strip while hinting at a prolonged stay, aims to dismantle Gaza’s popular support for the resistance, fostering despair. This would create an environment where the population turns away from the resistance and accepts Israeli terms, pressuring the resistance to secure the best possible deal when negotiating.
Negotiations held over the past months, under U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian mediation, indicate Israeli willingness to withdraw from the Netzarim axis, northern Gaza, and most points of Israeli military presence. Therefore, issues like displacement, settlement, and preventing refugees from returning hold little meaning if the resistance continues to perform well and popular resilience remains strong.
Netanyahu’s insistence on retaining control over the Salah al-Din (Philadelphia) axis is essentially a tactical pressure tool rather than a strategic position. Netanyahu himself only realized its importance in the eighth month of the war. The Egyptian side had already effectively shut down the tunnels, and there are numerous alternative Arab and international methods that could be acceptable to Israel. Israel cannot find any Palestinian, Egyptian, or Arab party willing to cooperate in managing the Rafah crossing or maintaining a presence on the axis. Even most of its international allies reject this position, and U.S. proposals for a deal with the resistance include Israeli withdrawal from the axis. Additionally, Israeli military leadership, headed by Gallant, and the security establishment do not see the need to remain at the crossing, supported by prominent military figures like former chiefs of staff Ehud Barak and Gadi Eizenkot.
The continued strong performance of the resistance, combined with the significant exhaustion the Israeli army faces in Gaza, and global and Israeli assessments of the resistance’s ability to endure, make it increasingly unlikely that Israel can eliminate the resistance in the foreseeable future. Moreover, the challenges for the Israeli army to maintain long-term control over areas like Netzarim and the Salah al-Din axis, alongside the potential for growing internal gaps within the army, increase the chances for the resistance to enhance its performance and impose its terms.
The Israeli newspaper Maariv (August 29, 2024) described August 2024 as the deadliest month for the Israeli army during the war, underscoring the resistance’s effectiveness. Simultaneously, Israeli radio quoted military officials stating that the army’s operations in the Gaza Strip had largely concluded and that the political leadership had been informed that the time had come to make a deal with the resistance.
This was echoed by Defense Minister Gallant, who voted in the cabinet against staying on the Philadelphia axis and later requested a re-vote in favor of withdrawal. Retired General Isaac Brick also wrote in Haaretz on August 21, 2024, that “Israel” would collapse within a year if the war of attrition with Hamas and Hezbollah continued, and that all military and political pathways were leading “Israel” into the abyss.
Following the Qassam Brigades’ forced killing of six Israeli captives before the Israeli army could reach them on August 30, the temporary “honeymoon” Netanyahu had enjoyed after returning from the U.S. with strong American support and after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah Chief of Staff Fouad Shukr came to an end. Domestic opinion turned against Netanyahu, with a growing sentiment that his methods would only return the captives in coffins. Massive protests, with around 750,000 participants, demanded a deal with the resistance. Opposition to Netanyahu intensified politically and publicly, with polls showing Benny Gantz overtaking Netanyahu, 61% disapproving of Netanyahu’s performance, 53% supporting withdrawal from the Rafah crossing, and a large majority opposing Netanyahu’s participation in the next elections.
The occupation faces a significant dilemma if it insists on remaining in Gaza and managing it militarily: it would be directly responsible (practically and under international law) for the lives of the people, providing aid, rebuilding infrastructure, and maintaining services such as schools and hospitals, while operating in a hostile environment with popular support for the resistance. The occupation cannot continue committing massacres indefinitely.
A large Israeli majority sees direct administration of Gaza as the last thing Zionists desire, as it entails meeting the daily civil needs of the population.
Conclusion
Netanyahu seeks to extend the war and signal his determination to remain in Gaza to prolong his time in power and attempt to achieve the appearance of victory over the resistance while weakening popular support for it. However, the pressure on Netanyahu and his government is undermining these calculations, especially as the resistance continues its strong performance, bolstered by popular support.
The occupation has failed for more than 30 years to crush the resistance in the West Bank or to weaken the popular environment, despite significant cooperation with the Ramallah Authority. Hamas remains strong and popular in the West Bank, making it more likely that the occupation’s strategy in Gaza will also fail.
The indicators show that the war on Gaza will drag on. However, Netanyahu may not realize that his arrogance blinds him to the attrition and heavy costs his government is paying militarily, politically, economically, and socially. This may be part of God’s plan to draw the occupation into further exhaustion, signaling the beginning of the countdown to the end of the Zionist project.
At the same time, this does not absolve anyone capable of supporting Gaza from their responsibilities—whether individuals, nations, or organizations. Everyone must recognize the critical historical moment that the Palestinian cause is going through, prevent the Zionist occupation from isolating Gaza, stop the bloodshed and destruction, and double efforts toward liberation and ending the occupation.
