In recent years, Europe has witnessed profound shifts in its defense and security policies, driven by escalating regional tensions, particularly the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. These developments have forced many European nations to reconsider their defense strategies, including reviewing decisions that led to the downsizing of their armies after the Cold War. Among these reviews is the reintroduction of mandatory military conscription, which was previously a fundamental aspect of European military policies before being gradually phased out in the late 20th century. Today, this policy is back in focus as a means to bolster the defensive capabilities of European countries, aiming to achieve regional stability amid the changing security landscape in Eastern Europe.
Indicators of Conscription
With the resurgence of expansive defense policies in response to the war in Ukraine, many European countries have revisited the idea of reinstating or expanding mandatory military conscription as part of a broader set of policies designed to strengthen European defenses. Key indicators of these European movements include:
- The Expansion of Calls for the Return of Mandatory Conscription Policies: Following the outbreak of the war, discussions about European armed forces and their prospects have returned to the forefront in Europe, in preparation for any full-scale war on the continent, similar to what occurred during the two World Wars. Among the solutions proposed for strengthening European armies is the reintroduction of mandatory conscription, which is currently limited to nine European countries: Cyprus, Greece, Austria, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, and Latvia, the latter being the most recent European country to implement this system in April 2023, after abolishing it in 2007.
It is expected that Croatia, an ally of these countries, will join them. Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anušić announced the reintroduction of mandatory military service for two months starting in January 2025, after it was suspended in 2008. The UK’s Conservative Party had previously proposed a mandatory 12-month national service if they won the general election in July 2024. However, the Labour Party’s victory and its assumption of power in these elections hindered the implementation of this proposal.
In June 2024, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius presented a new model for reintroducing mandatory military service for young people, aiming to help fill the army’s depleted ranks, with the possibility of young women joining voluntarily. He described the decision to end conscription during former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s tenure in 2011 as a “mistake” in German defense policy. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected Pistorius’s proposal, but the declining number of applicants to join the German army has fueled calls for a national discussion on the subject. Eva Högl, the German army commissioner in the German Parliament from the ruling Social Democratic Party, suggested discussing the imposition of a mandatory year of service in military or civilian institutions.
Introducing Systems for Women’s Participation in Military Service: The German armed forces’ General Inspector proposed involving women in mandatory military service upon its reintroduction, aiming to achieve gender equality and describing the idea as “selective military service.” Meanwhile, the Danish government announced its plan to conscript women into military service, making Denmark one of the few countries to impose military service on women. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen explained during a press conference in March 2024 that “more stringent conscription, including full gender equality, should contribute to addressing national defense and mobilization challenges and providing our armed forces with the necessary personnel.” It is worth noting that women in Denmark made up about a quarter of conscripts in 2023, making Denmark the third European country to implement mandatory conscription for females, following Norway and Sweden, which began implementing it in 2015 and 2017, respectively.
Growing Plans to Increase the Size of European Forces: Many European governments hope to increase the size of their armed forces over the coming years. For example, Poland aims to increase its forces to more than 300,000 by 2035, as military officials see Russia’s policies in Eastern Europe as a strong motivator for mandatory conscription. The German government has pledged to increase the army’s size to 203,000 by 2030, compared to about 181,500 in 2023, while France aims to increase its armed forces to 275,000 soldiers, compared to about 240,000 in 2023.
Offering Financial Incentives to Armed Forces Personnel: Financial incentives play a role in convincing conscripts to stay in the armed forces. Therefore, many countries have prepared financial programs to encourage young people to join their armed forces. For example, the Polish government announced a 20% wage increase in an attempt to retain soldiers, raising the minimum monthly salary for a soldier from 4,960 zlotys (1,150 euros) to 6,000 zlotys. In France, the government is working on a plan to improve wages and enhance military pensions, with the French plan comprising about 40 items as part of the multi-year military budget (2024–2030). The plan allocates 500 million euros for its implementation, aiming to support the retention of military personnel.
Expanding the Adoption of Selective Conscription Systems: Countries like Germany and the Netherlands are moving towards adopting selective conscription systems similar to the Swedish and Norwegian models. In Sweden, the system involves screening more than 100,000 young people annually, with about a quarter being called for physical and mental examinations before selecting the top third to serve between nine and fifteen months in the army. Accordingly, the German Ministry of Defense plans to send surveys to about 400,000 young people annually to gauge their readiness for military service, while in the Netherlands, the idea is based on registering 2,000 young people annually for a year of service based on a mandatory survey sent to those over seventeen years old.
Conversely, experts believe that mandatory conscription—even successful selective models—will not be the ideal solution. Military officials must adopt a broader perspective on making a military career more attractive to young people, as successfully applied in Norway and Sweden.
- Exploring the Possibility of Integrating Migrants into the Army: This point reflects the concern within European armies about the declining number of conscripts, prompting them to try to attract migrants to join the military service. Some countries, such as Spain, France, and Portugal, are already studying ways to enable migrants to join the army and obtain citizenship after a few years of service. In Germany, the government is considering recruiting foreign nationals in the army to address the shortage of conscripts, especially in technical and medical specialties. However, this proposal still faces political and social objections, as some view it as a threat to national identity and army unity.
In France, the government announced a plan to attract migrants to join the army, where they would be granted French citizenship after three years of service. Paris hopes this move will help boost the number of armed forces personnel and provide greater diversity within the army. However, this approach also faces opposition from some political parties that see it as a threat to national cohesion. In Spain, laws have been amended to allow migrants from Latin American countries to join the army and obtain citizenship after two years of service.
- Preparing the Legal and Institutional Frameworks for the Reintroduction of Mandatory Conscription: These moves towards reintroducing mandatory conscription have not been without legal and legislative challenges, as many countries have amended national laws to support the return of mandatory conscription and ensure its compliance with modern standards, such as respecting human rights and international standards. For example, Sweden has passed new laws to ensure the application of mandatory conscription in line with modern requirements, while Lithuania has amended its laws to ensure that mandatory conscription complies with the country’s obligations within the framework of the European Union and NATO. As the idea of reimposing national military service gains ground in Europe, it is expected that we will witness more amendments to European constitutions and laws in this regard, along with increased defense budgets to cover the additional costs related to training, arming, and housing tens of thousands of new conscripts.
Drivers of the Movement
The growing threats to national security in Europe have prompted many countries to consider reintroducing mandatory military service as a means to bolster national defense and instill a sense of patriotism among young people. The reasons driving this trend are diverse, including:
- Responding to Security Concerns: Regional security challenges, primarily the war in Ukraine, are one of the main drivers reigniting the European debate over the reintroduction of mandatory conscription in Europe. These challenges have pushed European countries to increase their military spending and enhance their defense, reversing the trend of shrinking their armies that has occurred over the past three decades, especially since Russia has become a potential threat to European security. Additionally, other threats, such as terrorism and cyberattacks, have exerted further pressure on governments to reconsider their defense strategies.
NATO countries, mostly European, have recognized the urgent need to increase their active and reserve armed forces. Although NATO’s European forces theoretically possess around 1.9 million soldiers, the reality is that there is great difficulty in mobilizing more than 300,000 soldiers for any potential conflict, as it requires months of preparation. This reflects the fact that advanced military technology cannot replace soldiers in major ground wars, as soldiers remain essential for operating heavy equipment, such as tanks and artillery, as well as directing aircraft and drones and occupying and holding territory.
- Addressing the Shortage of European Armies: Eastern European countries, particularly those bordering Ukraine, such as Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, face significant challenges in recruiting young people for the military, especially in retaining experienced soldiers. This has led to a severe shortage in military units and a decline in combat readiness. The Russian-Ukrainian war on these countries’ borders has served as a stark reminder of the threat posed by Moscow, increasing the importance of strengthening the armed forces.
Mandatory military service also provides an opportunity for these countries to cultivate new generations of citizens capable of defending their homeland in case of war. For example, Poland aims to increase its armed forces to 300,000 soldiers by 2035, but achieving this goal seems difficult without reinstating conscription, especially considering that the Polish army currently has around 150,000 soldiers.
- Economic Reasons: Many European countries face economic challenges that prevent them from increasing their defense spending to a level that enables the voluntary recruitment of a sufficient number of soldiers. For example, Italy and Spain have announced their intention to cut defense spending as part of broader austerity measures to reduce public debt, while Germany has raised taxes on companies to finance the increase in defense spending without burdening the state budget.
As these economic challenges continue, mandatory conscription is seen as a less expensive way to strengthen the armed forces compared to the costs of relying solely on professional soldiers. Moreover, some countries view mandatory conscription as an opportunity to reduce unemployment rates among young people and equip them with skills that will benefit them in the labor market, such as discipline, teamwork, and leadership.
- Boosting National Unity: Some European countries see the reintroduction of mandatory military service as a way to promote national unity and social cohesion, especially in an era of increasing political and social polarization. By bringing together young people from different backgrounds to serve in the military, governments hope to foster a sense of shared identity and purpose, as well as to instill values such as discipline, responsibility, and respect for authority.
Mandatory military service also provides an opportunity for governments to address social issues, such as integrating migrants and reducing crime rates among young people. In France, for example, the government has proposed mandatory military service as part of a broader plan to address the challenges of social integration and reduce the influence of extremist ideologies among young people.
In conclusion, the reintroduction of mandatory military service in Europe reflects a growing recognition of the need to strengthen national defense in the face of increasing security challenges. While the move is driven by a combination of security, economic, and social factors, it also highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between military readiness and respect for individual rights and freedoms. As European countries continue to debate the merits of mandatory conscription, the coming years will likely see further developments in this area, with potential implications for regional stability and the future of European defense policies.
