“Urban Safety”: Climate Change… Escalating Threats to National Security

“Urban Safety: Climate Change… Escalating Threats to National Security” is a critical exploration of how climate change is intensifying risks to urban environments and, by extension, national security. The article delves into the multifaceted ways in which rising global temperatures, extreme weather events, and environmental degradation are exacerbating vulnerabilities in cities, which are often the economic and political hubs of nations.

As climate change progresses, urban areas face increased threats from natural disasters, such as floods, hurricanes, and heatwaves, which can lead to significant human and economic losses. These disruptions not only threaten the safety and well-being of urban populations but also pose broader security risks by destabilizing societies, straining resources, and potentially triggering conflict over increasingly scarce resources.

This article also emphasizes the need for integrating climate resilience into urban planning and national security strategies. It advocates for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on cities, ensuring that urban centers remain safe and resilient in the face of an escalating global threat. The report underscores that safeguarding urban areas from climate-induced risks is not just a local or national concern but a critical element of global security.

Introduction

In recent years, there has been a surge of international attention regarding the impacts of climate change on the planet, particularly in light of the devastating floods that have struck various parts of the world, most notably in Western Europe and China. Despite international efforts, the catastrophic consequences of climate change sounded the alarm in 2024, warning the international community that a new specter is looming over the world, threatening the existence of millions of people. This threat surpasses in its magnitude any political or economic problems or crises.

In this context, the concept of “Climate Security” emerges as a cornerstone for understanding the security risks directly or indirectly caused by climate change, which has become an undeniable reality. Over the past two months, the international community has witnessed two events that may reinforce this concept. The first event was the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on August 9, which revealed that recent changes in the climate system have become unprecedented in centuries, with the Earth heading towards a catastrophic warming of 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels. Therefore, the planet needs to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century. The second event, which further deepened the concept of climate security, was the inclusion of climate change on the agenda of the UN Security Council, chaired by Ireland in September, where one session concluded that no region in the world is immune to climate disasters.

In light of these developments, and coinciding with the discussion of climate change at Expo 2020 Dubai, a general overview of the security impacts of climate change, as well as its effects on the indicators of urban safety for nations, can be provided.

Climate Change and Security:

The issue of climate change is one of the most prominent concerns related to environmental degradation risks, increasingly understood since the 1990s as a security problem requiring political solutions alongside scientific ones. According to scientific studies and reports issued by the IPCC, climate change has become a driver of scarcity, exerting pressure on the ecosystem by causing changes in rainfall and temperatures, thereby reshaping the productivity map of food unevenly or exacerbating food, water, and energy scarcity in various regions of the world. Additionally, it has led to rising ocean and sea levels, ozone layer depletion, biodiversity loss, and the spread of infectious diseases.

In this context, climate change has significantly contributed to exacerbating irregular and unstable population movements, some of which may be internal, but their effects may extend beyond national borders, especially in the case of more severe natural disasters that lead to acute resource shortages, resulting in mass population flows across national borders.

The German Advisory Council on Global Change has identified four potential pathways linking climate change to conflict: 1) degradation of freshwater resources; 2) food insecurity; 3) increased frequency and severity of natural disasters; 4) and increased or altered migration patterns. In this regard, it can be concluded that climate changes negatively affect communities’ adaptive capacities, thus contributing to destabilization, leading to countless security risks. Therefore, “security” must be incorporated as a central element in addressing such risks that could threaten nations, group identities, and create fertile ground for extremism, poverty, and bloody conflicts.

In this context, Scheffran developed an integrated model to understand the causal relationship between climate change, natural resources, human security, and societal impacts. This relationship can be observed as follows:

1. Changes in the climate system, such as increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, rising temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns, affect ecosystems and natural resources (such as soil, water, ecosystems, forests, and biodiversity) through a series of complex interactions.
2. These changes in natural resources can have harmful effects on humans and their capacities, potentially triggering human responses that could affect social systems.
3. Depending on the vulnerability and fragility of the systems, social and economic tensions increase due to food and water insecurity, health problems, migration, economic deterioration, weak institutions, declining economic growth, and social erosion.
4. All these manifestations lead to societal instability, and consequently, the emergence of various forms of violence, such as riots, insurgencies, protests, organized crime, drug trafficking, and other illegal activities.
5. The feedback loop may allow humans and societies to adapt to the changing situation and mitigate climate pressure through strategies, institutions, and governance mechanisms that may be applied through technology or human and social capital to adjust the economy and energy system to the changing environmental conditions.

Threat to Urban Safety:

The failure to establish specific rules that enhance the ability to work in climate security will lead to the deterioration of urban safety indicators, which were highlighted by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) in its report published last September. Six areas are exposed to risk due to climate change:

1. Economic and Trade Disruptions: Heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and droughts will negatively impact food security and energy and water infrastructure, harming industry and business sectors. Consequently, stock markets are likely to experience sudden shifts due to the destruction of infrastructure and crops, leading to asset sales, declining stock prices, pension fund shortages, and ultimately undermining financial markets. On the other hand, international trade is likely to be affected by climate insecurity. For example, the flooding of the Yangtze River in China in 2020, due to the highest rainfall in 60 years, forced authorities to destroy a dam at risk of collapse and disrupt shipping vessels.
2. Migration and Mass Displacement Pressures: Climate change pressures are likely to lead to loss of lives, human rights violations, and increased pressure on public institutions and infrastructure, thereby worsening social and economic conditions. In this context, international experts expect this to lead to more displacement and consequently an increase in migration, mass displacement, and environmental asylum. Globally, the average number of people displaced within their countries annually between 2008 and 2020 was about 21.8 million people, due to weather-related disasters, including extreme heat, drought, floods, storms, and wildfires.
3. Food Insecurity: Climate change will have an impact on the growing phenomenon of food shortages. Climate change is expected to lead to the emergence of many animal and plant diseases that will contribute to crop shortages, leading to higher rates of famine and malnutrition, as well as rising prices for food and goods. Furthermore, climate change will cause changes in livelihoods, particularly the lifestyle of farmers, who are likely to sell their livestock and land. All these manifestations will exacerbate poverty, social tensions, migration, and conflict.
4. Health Crises: Climate change leads to an increase in the spread of emerging and vector-borne infectious diseases as it disrupts ecosystems and increases the risk of disease transmission. For example, The Lancet journal reported in 2019 that pathogens are on the rise due to climate change. In a related context, public health experts point to another problem, which is the lack of adequate health and medical facilities for displaced populations. Therefore, the major issue, according to World Bank estimates, is that climate change is likely to displace about 140 million people by 2050 from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America (which together represent about 55% of the world’s developing population), making these individuals more vulnerable to carrying and spreading diseases.
5. Risks to Future Energy Security: Experts are concerned about two separate groups of energy security risks; the first relates to electricity. The likelihood of increasing “urban heat islands” and declining cooling water within thermal power plants is expected to increase demand and reduce supply, with experts fearing that this scenario could be exacerbated by export controls, leading to power outages. The second risk is related to air quality deterioration, leading to increased transportation restrictions and therefore reduced oil demand. Experts fear that this could lead to oil company failures and oil price shocks. For example, the recent global shortage of semiconductor chips was partly due to factory closures caused by power outages during an abnormal cold wave in Texas in February 2021.
6. Threat to National and Global Security: This is the most significant indicator of urban safety, as when national security is at risk, it means that countries are experiencing political instability, i.e., societies become unstable due to the fragility and weakness of political systems. Moreover, climate change is expected to have effects including the rise of extremist groups, violence, and conflict between citizens and states, which may lead to potential conflicts between countries competing to secure resources for their citizens. The “Global Trends 2040” report by the US National Intelligence Council, released in March 2021, highlights the impact of climate change and the likelihood that it will exacerbate risks to human security and consequently national security, forcing countries to make difficult choices and trade-offs, possibly resulting in uneven burden-sharing, increasing competition, contributing to destabilization, straining military readiness, and encouraging political movements, insurgencies, and terrorism to threaten the security and survival of nations.

Securitization of Climate Change:

Given the above-mentioned security implications, it is undeniable that climate change is increasingly viewed as a source of threats to the security of nations and regions, and one of the most significant potential threats to global security in the 21st century. There is no doubt that resource scarcity, massive population shifts, natural disasters, pandemics and infectious diseases, droughts, rising sea levels, global warming, and melting ice are some of the expected consequences of climate change, which could drive the world towards more conflicts and instability, threatening human security and national security.

In this context, the pioneers of the Copenhagen School of Security Studies have emphasized the need to “securitize the environment,” meaning that the environment and its various issues and problems should be treated as posing a threat to national security and the security of its citizens. Since climate security can be considered part of environmental security, especially since climate change

can have significant implications for the security of countries, the researchers of the Copenhagen School have emphasized the concept of “human security,” meaning the security of people, not just states. The concept of securitization means the process through which states treat specific issues as security threats, meaning they are perceived as issues requiring extraordinary measures to be resolved.

In conclusion, it can be said that the issue of climate change poses one of the greatest challenges of our time, which has not been fully addressed globally. This failure is expected to exacerbate environmental and human security crises, leading to an increase in instability and conflict, and in extreme cases, a new category of “climate wars” between or within states may emerge. However, the most important lesson that can be learned is that the security threats arising from climate change require collective efforts and continuous attention to find adequate solutions to mitigate its effects and impacts on urban safety and human security.”**