The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) officially commenced operations on January 1, 2025, succeeding the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), whose mandate concluded on December 31, 2024. This transition represents a significant shift in the African Union’s peacekeeping approach in Somalia, reflecting persistent challenges and strategic transformations in the region. ATMIS’s core objectives encompass peace-building initiatives and combating the armed group al-Shabaab, while state-building responsibilities are being transferred to international partners and the Federal Government of Somalia. However, the history of international intervention in the Somali crisis consistently raises the issue of “false starts,” a concept highlighted by French socialist René Dumont in 1962. In the African context, “false start” often alludes to ineffective initiatives, particularly in political, economic, or security domains. This article delves into the historical context of UN and African missions in Somalia, the recent transition to ATMIS, and the challenges it faces.
The Legacy of International Interventions:
Peacekeeping efforts in Somalia have been marked by a series of complex international interventions aimed at restoring stability amidst protracted conflicts and civil wars. The roots of these endeavors can be traced back to the early 1990s, following the collapse of President Mohamed Siad Barre’s regime in 1991, which plunged the country into a devastating civil war. The United Nations launched its first peacekeeping operation, UNOSOM I, in 1992 to facilitate humanitarian aid and mediate between warring factions. However, this mission encountered significant challenges, leading to the deployment of a more robust follow-up operation, UNOSOM II, in 1993. This operation aimed not only to provide humanitarian assistance but also to engage in state-building efforts. Nonetheless, Somalia descended into armed clashes between local militias, notably during the infamous Battle of Mogadishu in 1993, which ultimately resulted in the withdrawal of U.S. and UN forces by 1995.
In response to the chronic instability, the African Union established the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in 2007. AMISOM’s mandate was to support the Transitional Federal Government and combat the al-Shabaab terrorist movement, which had gained significant influence in the region. Throughout its tenure, AMISOM achieved several notable successes, including protecting successive Transitional Federal Government administrations and facilitating the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Mogadishu, which helped alleviate local resentment against foreign forces. Moreover, AMISOM played a vital role in training Somali security forces and participated in various humanitarian projects aimed at improving the living conditions of displaced populations.
Another transition occurred from AMISOM to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on April 1, 2022. This shift was authorized by the African Union Peace and Security Council with the objective of supporting the Federal Government of Somalia in implementing the Somali Transition Plan. ATMIS was designed to gradually transfer security responsibilities to Somali forces and institutions while continuing to combat al-Shabaab and promote peacebuilding efforts. The mission retained a force of approximately 11,911 personnel and focused on enhancing the operational capabilities of the Somali National Armed Forces.
Peacekeeping Challenges:
It is no secret that ATMIS aims to build upon the achievements of its predecessors by focusing on peace-building measures and combating al-Shabaab, while delegating state-building efforts to international partners and the Federal Government of Somalia. Despite these aspirations, challenges persist as al-Shabaab, as well as the Islamic State, continue to exploit security gaps and clan rivalries within Somalia. The ongoing struggle to finalize troop contributions to ATMIS underscores the complexities involved in establishing lasting peace in a region fraught with historical tensions and instability.
1. Military Force Generation Challenges:
Although ATMIS seeks to maintain a force size comparable to its predecessor, ATMIS (11,911 personnel), it faces challenges related to force generation. The period leading up to the mission’s launch witnessed Burundi’s withdrawal from the peacekeeping force due to disagreements over troop allocation. Burundi requested 2,000 troops to ensure the security of its operations, but Somalia allocated only 1,000. Burundi’s withdrawal undoubtedly leaves a gap in force generation, as no replacements for its contribution have been announced, adding a layer of uncertainty regarding the mission’s preparedness and ability to achieve its security objectives. Burundi, one of the largest troop-contributing countries to AU missions in Somalia, has played a significant role in achieving numerous successes, including the liberation of Mogadishu in 2011 and the capture and protection of other strategic locations.
2. The Ethiopian Contribution and Regional Conflict Concerns:
In January 2025, Ethiopia announced its intention to continue supporting ATMIS with its troops, following Turkish mediation efforts through Ankara’s declaration. Despite welcoming this decision, Ethiopia’s participation might raise concerns in Somalia due to previous tensions between the two countries regarding a port agreement with Somaliland. Cooperation between the two sides necessitates building long-term trust to ensure the effectiveness of joint operations. However, following President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Addis Ababa, Somalia announced that obstacles hindering Ethiopia’s participation in ATMIS had been resolved, paving the way for Ethiopian forces to join the mission.
3. The Escalating Threat of al-Shabaab:
As ATMIS grapples with operational and diplomatic challenges, al-Shabaab seeks to capitalize on these security gaps. According to U.S. reports, the group has regained vast swathes of territory it had previously lost, particularly in central and southern Somalia. This resurgence is partly attributed to the Somali government’s inability to sustain military pressure in areas plagued by clan conflicts, hindering the mobilization of efforts against the group. Moreover, al-Shabaab has resorted to unconventional tactics, demonstrating a capacity to launch sophisticated attacks, including suicide bombings and assaults on military bases and government facilities. Furthermore, the group attempts to expand into remote rural areas lacking robust security presence, allowing it to establish new strongholds and replenish its forces.
4. Clan Tensions and Lack of Internal Stability:
Clan tensions in Somalia are among the most significant challenges hindering peacebuilding and stability efforts in the country. Ongoing tribal conflicts complicate operations aimed at forming a united front against extremist groups like al-Shabaab. This movement exploits clan divisions to enhance its influence, engaging clans in ancient feuds and creating new disputes. This weakens popular support for the government and provides al-Shabaab with more room to rebuild its capabilities and expand. For instance, central Somalia has witnessed violent clashes between clans, such as those in the Galgadud region, which resulted in 55 deaths and 155 injuries. These conflicts often stem from competition over limited resources, such as water and land, particularly in light of the harsh climatic conditions the country has recently experienced. Al-Shabaab benefits from these conflicts by fueling old rivalries between clans, thus dismantling efforts to combat the movement.
5. Weak Coordination among Contributing Countries:
Weak coordination among the countries contributing to ATMIS is a major obstacle to achieving tangible progress in combating extremism in Somalia. Each country has different priorities, leading to a lack of harmony in plans and operations, which causes delays in implementing joint operations. These delays give al-Shabaab an opportunity to regroup and exploit security gaps resulting from poor coordination. Additionally, the absence of a unified plan for distributing resources and equipment hinders the efficiency of military operations and increases the complexity of the security situation. To enhance the mission’s effectiveness, establishing a unified operations room to improve coordination among contributing countries is recommended. This will contribute to strengthening joint security efforts and enhance ATMIS’s ability to face mounting challenges.
The Risks of ISIS’s Rise:
On December 31, 2024, ISIS in Somalia carried out its most sophisticated attack in the country to date, targeting security force bases in the Bari region of Puntland. Utilizing a combination of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) and suicide vests, the assault marked a significant escalation in the operational capabilities of ISIS in Somalia. The targeted bases are located approximately 60 kilometers south of ISIS support zones in the Cal Madow Mountains, a region known for its rugged terrain and a stronghold for the group. This operation represents not only the first suicide attack launched by ISIS in Somalia since early 2023 but also the most sophisticated assault conducted by the group since the siege of the capital of the Puntland regional state, Bosaso, in 2017.
The influx of foreign fighters into Somalia in recent years has bolstered ISIS’s operational capabilities, enabling it to carry out such a complex attack. Evidence suggests that foreign militants from various countries participated in this operation, highlighting the increasingly international composition of ISIS. Historically, foreign fighters have played crucial roles in enhancing the operational effectiveness of Salafi-jihadist groups, contributing expertise and resources that facilitate more sophisticated attacks.
It is worth noting that ISIS generates substantial revenue through extortion, illegal taxation, and exploiting ungoverned mountainous areas in northern Somalia as logistical hubs. This funding not only supports local operations but also extends to ISIS branches globally, including those in Afghanistan and Yemen. The financial resources directed to ISIS’s Khorasan Province in Afghanistan are particularly concerning due to its involvement in external attack plots against Western targets.
In conclusion, ATMIS represents a pivotal moment in efforts to achieve stability in Somalia. However, it faces multiple challenges at both domestic and regional levels. Success in its mission this time requires avoiding the syndrome of “false starts” in Africa and drawing upon the lessons of previous peacekeeping missions. A meticulous approach to addressing operational and political complexities, while ensuring effective cooperation between contributing countries and the Somali government, might be the key to achieving this goal. Otherwise, security and political vacuums may continue to fuel escalating threats, impacting the future of security and stability in Somalia. In such a scenario, Somalia risks becoming a hotbed for violent jihadist organizations, spearheaded by al-Qaeda and ISIS
