The Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is currently facing a new episode of the recurring historical crisis concerning the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox (Haredim). However, this appears to be the most turbulent episode since this government came to power in December 2022. As of mid-July 2025, the parties “United Torah Judaism” (7 seats in the Knesset) and “Noam” (1 seat) decided to withdraw from the government and the coalition, while the “Shas” party (11 seats) chose to withdraw from the government only but remain in the coalition to prevent the government from collapsing. As a result, Netanyahu’s majority in the Knesset shrank from 68 seats to just 60.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu does not currently appear willing to abandon his Haredi partners in the ruling coalition and thus bring down the government and call for early elections. Likewise, the Haredi parties do not seem inclined to topple the government, particularly because the opposition’s rise to power would prevent the fulfillment of their demands. It is likely that the government will witness a period of calm during the Knesset’s summer recess, which extends until October 19, 2025. This period may prompt the various parties to reassess their calculations, leaving the government’s future open to multiple possibilities.
Roots of the Crisis:
The roots of the ultra-Orthodox conscription crisis in Israel date back to the early years of the state’s founding, when the first Israeli Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion, granted religious seminary (Yeshiva) students an exemption from military service. A clause was added to the military service law allowing the Minister of Defense to exempt individuals from mandatory service.
Despite the numerous wars Israel engaged in during those years, the issue of exempting yeshiva students was not significant at the time because the number of exemptions was limited to a few hundred individuals. However, the situation changed when Menachem Begin came to power in 1977 and raised the cap on the number of yeshiva students eligible for exemption to several thousand.
Later, in 1998, Israel’s Supreme Court stripped the Minister of Defense of the authority to issue blanket exemptions, rendering him unable to exempt all yeshiva students. This ruling was circumvented with the enactment of the “Tal Law” in 2002, which allowed religious students to defer military service until the age of 23, after which they could choose to perform a short military service, a civil national service, or continue religious studies. However, in 2012, the Supreme Court again struck down this law.
In 2014, the military service law was amended to gradually increase the number of Haredi recruits in the Israeli army. But in 2015, under pressure from the Haredi parties, Netanyahu’s government at the time repealed these amendments, allowing the exemption of Haredim to continue. In 2017, the Supreme Court once again invalidated the exemption law, citing its unconstitutionality.
The tug-of-war between successive Netanyahu governments and the Supreme Court continued without reaching a settlement or new law until June 30, 2023, when the law that allowed deferment of military service for yeshiva students expired.
The next move came from the Supreme Court on June 26, 2024, ruling that the government could no longer exempt Haredim from military service nor continue to fund religious schools whose students were not officially exempt. Since then, the Israeli army has been obligated to issue conscription notices to yeshiva students.
The Army’s Position:
The Israeli army believes it is necessary to conscript all yeshiva students, especially in light of the current wars. Military leaders have noted the urgent need for about 10,000 additional combat soldiers and around 3,000 more for other tasks. Since mid-2024, the army has issued over 20,000 draft notices to yeshiva students, aiming to increase annual Haredi conscription from the current 1,800 to around 4,800 recruits. However, over a full year (from June 2024 to June 2025), the army managed to conscript only 2,700 Haredim.
Statistics indicate that around 80,000 ultra-Orthodox Jewish men aged 18 to 24 are currently eligible for Israeli military service but have not enlisted. Yitzhak Goldknopf, head of the United Torah Judaism party, stated in reference to the crisis that if draft orders are applied to 54,000 yeshiva students, “there will be no peace.”
The crisis escalated significantly after June 2024. With the army sending out draft notices, thousands of yeshiva students were classified as draft dodgers, making them subject to arrest upon encountering police, banning them from leaving Israel, and depriving them of several financial benefits—most notably child care allowances. This has placed significant financial strain on Haredi families. According to Israel’s Ministry of Finance, around 10,000 young children—whose parents are enrolled in religious schools—received child care benefits in the past school year, totaling about 200 million shekels.
The situation worsened with attempts by Yuli Edelstein, a Knesset member from the Likud party and chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, to pass legislation tightening the noose on yeshiva students evading military service. He proposed harsher penalties, particularly given the army’s and police’s inability to handle the large number of draft evaders.
The ultra-Orthodox parties (United Torah Judaism and Shas) strongly opposed Edelstein’s proposed penalties, labeling them “harsh,” especially objecting to the automatic application of the penalties without giving the Defense Minister the authority to assess individual cases. These party leaders urged Netanyahu to resolve the issue and pass a law that would officially legalize the exemption of yeshiva students from military service.
The Haredi parties issued two warnings to Netanyahu. The first came in January 2025 when Aryeh Deri, head of the Shas party, stated: “If the conscription exemption law is not resolved within two months, we will go to elections.” The second warning came in March, when the parties set the Jewish holiday of Shavuot (June 1–3, 2025) as a new deadline for passing the exemption law.
Netanyahu’s Moves:
After Netanyahu’s government missed the deadlines set by the Haredi parties and failed to present a new draft exemption bill, United Torah Judaism announced its withdrawal from the government and the coalition on July 14. Two days later, on July 16, Shas also withdrew from the government but stayed in the coalition and did not support a no-confidence motion. With the withdrawal of Avi Maoz, the sole Knesset member representing the Noam party, Netanyahu’s coalition now only holds 60 Knesset seats, down from 68.
Although neither party (United Torah Judaism or Shas) has announced plans to call for early elections, legislative activity in the Knesset remains paralyzed. The parties may either abstain from voting on government-sponsored bills or vote against them to disrupt the legislative process.
It currently appears that the Haredi parties do not intend to topple the government, considering that a future government—especially one formed by the opposition—would not cater to their demands, particularly regarding conscription and funding of their institutions.
On the other hand, Netanyahu seems unable—or perhaps unwilling—to resolve the issue. He may believe that managing the crisis without solving it is the best course. He does not want to lose his Haredi partners, but at the same time, he is not keen on passing a law that could damage his public image or trigger another confrontation with the Supreme Court.
Therefore, Netanyahu opted to buy more time by removing Edelstein from his position as chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Edelstein had been portrayed in recent months as the main adversary of the Haredi parties on the conscription issue. Netanyahu replaced him with someone more willing to make concessions that Edelstein was unwilling to offer, which may allow the conscription bill to move forward.
This move may calm the Haredi public and grant Netanyahu more time, but it certainly won’t resolve the crisis. Evidence of this is Shas’s response to the move, describing it as “too little, too late,” while insisting on immediate progress on the exemption bill.
Government Scenarios:
Based on current conditions and the potential for shifting political calculations in Israel, three potential scenarios could shape the future of Netanyahu’s government amid the conscription crisis:
- Haredi Parties Push to Dissolve the Knesset:
This scenario becomes likely if Netanyahu fails to reach a settlement with the Haredi parties during the Knesset’s summer recess. Failure may damage the parties’ credibility with their voters. Under this scenario, the parties might call for dissolving the Knesset when sessions resume on October 19. By law, elections must be held within a minimum of three months after dissolution, meaning—at the earliest—the government would remain in place until January 2026. A weaker version of this scenario is that 61 Knesset members—backed by the Haredi parties—may request an emergency session during the summer recess to vote on dissolution. However, the Haredi parties are unlikely to support this option as they may prefer to give Netanyahu the summer break to resolve the crisis. - Crisis Settlement and Government Continuation Until November 2026:
This scenario depends on Netanyahu successfully using the summer break to resolve the crisis with the Haredi parties and drafting a new conscription law. Edelstein’s removal may help facilitate this. Many observers in Israel believe that it will be difficult to pass a new conscription law that satisfies the rabbis while also surviving Supreme Court scrutiny. Therefore, Netanyahu may focus his efforts on the Shas party, which holds 11 seats and whose leader, Aryeh Deri, is close to Netanyahu and considered more pragmatic than his United Torah Judaism counterparts. Additionally, Netanyahu may try to bolster his government by bringing in an external party, as he did in September 2024 when he brought in Gideon Sa’ar’s “New Hope” party. In that case, Netanyahu may be able to complete his full legal term until November 2026. - Netanyahu Calls Early Elections Voluntarily:
At some point, Netanyahu may conclude that resolving the Haredi conscription crisis is impossible and seek to escape pressure from both the Haredi parties and far-right parties. Early elections may then become his available option. However, Netanyahu will only pursue this option if he is confident he can form the next government or has exhausted all alternatives. In that case, he would manage the conscription issue until the timing is right to call elections. Netanyahu appears to be preparing for this option. Media reports in July indicated he is considering a bill to lower the “electoral threshold” to enter the Knesset—a move designed to help the “Religious Zionism” party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, which recent polls show may fall below the current 3.25% threshold. It is in Netanyahu’s interest not to lose seats from the Religious Zionism party—one of his key allies in the current coalition. The main challenge facing Netanyahu in this scenario is that his coalition parties (Likud, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism) remain stagnant in recent polls. Although Likud saw a slight boost in some surveys following the 12-day war with Iran, that gain came at the expense of other coalition members. Overall, the coalition’s polling numbers range between 48 and 53 seats—far below the required majority. A Channel 12 poll conducted on July 16 showed the coalition receiving just 49 seats. Netanyahu’s only possible way to ensure success in early elections may be to convince his rival Naftali Bennett—former prime minister and leader of the new “Bennett 2026” party, which is now strongly challenging Likud—to form a national unity government. Netanyahu has succeeded at this before, after the March 2020 elections, when he formed a unity government with his then-political rival Benny Gantz, the former leader of “Blue and White” and now head of the “National Unity” party.
In Summary:
According to the above scenarios, Netanyahu’s government may remain in place until January 2026—or potentially even until the next scheduled elections in November 2026. Netanyahu may even return to the prime minister’s seat again in the next election. The current crisis leaves the fate of the government open to all possibilities. Additionally, developments in the war in Gaza or renewed military escalation with Iran could become decisive factors—either prolonging the government’s lifespan or hastening its end.
