The world today is witnessing a profound transformation in the balance of international power, with China emerging as a formidable economic, military, and technological power, posing a direct challenge to the American hegemony that has persisted since the Cold War.
This rivalry has taken multiple dimensions — encompassing trade wars, technological and innovation races, and the expansion of geopolitical influence through major initiatives and strategies, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the U.S.-led security and economic alliances.
This competition is not merely a confrontation between two great powers; it reflects a reconfiguration of the international order itself, with significant implications for global stability, international trade, and regional alliances.
First Section: U.S.–China Competition in Economic and Military Domains
First Requirement: The Economic Sphere
Throughout history, trade relations between the United States and China have experienced numerous fluctuations and turning points.
In 2018, the U.S. raised tariffs on nearly 50% of imports from China, increasing the average tariff rate from 3% to over 12%. In response, China imposed reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports, raising its average rate from less than 10% to over 18%.
This exchange of tariff measures came to be known as the “trade war”, driven by the fierce competition between the world’s two largest economies for global dominance and influence. (1)
China has also encouraged countries to abandon dollar dominance in international transactions through bilateral currency exchange agreements and by supporting the introduction of a new currency within the BRICS alliance.
An increasing number of nations have joined Beijing’s initiative to conduct bilateral trade in local currencies instead of the U.S. dollar — the most recent being Brazil. In recent years, China has signed similar agreements with Russia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Laos, and Brazil, aiming to reduce reliance on and weaken the dollar. (2)
The U.S.–China confrontation now extends across multiple global regions — notably the South China Sea, Africa, and the Middle East — where both powers compete for energy, trade routes, and geopolitical influence.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of this rivalry is China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”, which threatens American interests across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The initiative seeks to connect Europe with Asia and Japan—a region traditionally dominated by the U.S.—and presents itself as a global model for development aligned with the aspirations of many developing nations. (3)
It is worth noting that Chinese loans carry interest rates 10–15% lower than those of the U.S., which often exceed 25%, making China a more attractive lender. The initiative has even attracted U.S. allies, including British banks, American private firms, and Saudi Arabia, which signed $20 billion in investment agreements as part of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.
China has also sought to include Italy in the initiative and to strengthen cooperation with France, aiming to build a coordinated European partnership.
The strategic goal of U.S. trade policy remains the containment of any rising power that threatens its global dominance. Washington believes that China’s economy—heavily dependent on U.S. markets—will eventually compel Beijing to accept American terms. (2)
China, meanwhile, has adopted several mechanisms to achieve its ambition of becoming a global power while fostering a multipolar world order that allows diverse nations to participate in international decision-making.
Beijing’s global outlook is rooted in the desire to protect its economic reform experiment, maintain its unique Chinese model, and create conditions for its long-term success.
China seeks to assert its global presence in an emerging world order increasingly defined by economic interests and open markets, rather than ideological divisions that characterized most of the twentieth century. (2)
Second Requirement: The Military Dimension
The military domain represents one of the most challenging fronts for China. The United States, by virtue of its military supremacy, controls global trade routes and energy sources while maintaining strategic pressure on China from the south and east.
This reality has heightened China’s awareness of the need for a strong military capable of securing its trade routes. Accordingly, China has dramatically increased its military spending over the past two decades, leveraging its economic surplus to strengthen its defense capabilities. (1)
By 2019, China had become the second-largest military spender in the world, with an estimated $261 billion defense budget and the largest army globally, numbering 2.3 million soldiers. The U.S. accuses China of underreporting its true military expenditures. (2)
China has utilized its growing power to assert regional dominance, particularly in the South and East China Seas, where it has increasingly challenged U.S. military presence. Beijing’s continued support for North Korea also serves to keep American troops in South Korea away from Chinese borders. (3)
A key component of both nations’ military strategies is artificial intelligence (AI). China aims to “intelligentize” its military, using AI to enhance decision-making, autonomous systems, and command-and-control capabilities — part of its broader ambition to become a world-class military power.
The U.S., too, is integrating AI into its defense operations but faces resistance from major tech companies unwilling to participate in military projects — a stark contrast to China’s seamless coordination between government and private sectors. (4)
Today, China seeks to revitalize its military presence in the Pacific to reclaim its historical position and secure its maritime trade, particularly within what it calls the “near seas”—the Yellow, East, and South China Seas.
The Yalong Naval Base in Hainan is central to this strategy, prompting an increased U.S. naval presence in the western Pacific. Beijing’s actions represent a deep strategic challenge to American leadership, which has long viewed itself as the backbone of the Asian economic miracle. (1)
China’s new maritime strategy signals a gradual shift in global leadership, as it seeks to undermine U.S. alliances with South Korea, the Philippines, and possibly Japan. Should U.S. influence recede, China could quietly assume regional leadership in Asia. (2)
Second Section: Implications of the U.S.–China Rivalry in the Middle East
First Requirement: Impacts on Middle Eastern Issues
The ongoing U.S.–China rivalry is expected to leave a significant mark on the Middle East’s crises and political dynamics, even though China’s influence currently serves as a counterbalance to American power in the region.
While Beijing has traditionally avoided involvement in regional security issues, it has expanded its economic and diplomatic presence, particularly through its 2015 Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road frameworks.
China has managed to engage almost all regional actors economically and diplomatically without assuming any security burdens, a stark contrast to Washington’s interventionist role.
However, growing mutual investments and strategic commitments could draw both powers deeper into the region’s affairs as they seek to counterbalance each other’s influence.
Given both nations’ reluctance to become entangled in complex regional conflicts, global rivalry is likely to stimulate regional competition rather than the reverse. For both, Middle Eastern security may serve as a secondary geopolitical arena, where each seeks opportunistic gains. (1)
China will continue expanding its economic partnerships and pursuing mega-projects—especially the Belt and Road Initiative—which will eventually make it a more influential player in both regional and global politics. (2)
Owing to its strategic location and vast energy resources, the Middle East remains a focal point for all major powers, despite differing ideologies and visions.
As the world transitions toward a new bipolar or multipolar order with China’s economic rise, the region will inevitably experience both positive and negative consequences. (3)
Thus, the Middle East will likely witness intensified competition, becoming a key arena of confrontation due to its geopolitical complexity and openness to foreign intervention.
As tensions escalate, regional states may face pressure to align with one camp or the other, potentially triggering a new Cold War dynamic between Washington and Beijing.
Such polarization could force Middle Eastern countries to choose between U.S. security partnerships and Chinese economic investments, risking the loss of one advantage in favor of the other. (3)
Second Requirement: The Future of the Middle East Under U.S.–China Rivalry
Middle Eastern politics are shaped by intertwined geopolitical, security, and economic factors.
The United States relies on military presence and security leverage to achieve economic objectives, while China presents itself as an economic alternative, promoting neutrality and mutual benefit.
Each superpower uses distinct strategies to gain influence and attract partners. (1)
The confrontation stems from several core factors: (2)
- Strategic importance: The Middle East is crucial to both powers — the U.S. emphasizes security and freedom of navigation, while China focuses on economic cooperation and energy.
- Different approaches: China adopts a central-player strategy, fostering bilateral ties regardless of local disputes or U.S. alliances — including engagement on the Palestinian issue and forming dual-polar coordination with Russia.
- Policy shift in Washington: The U.S. has redirected focus from counterterrorism to great-power competition, though it still shares with China certain interests like energy security and counterterrorism, which could help mitigate bilateral tensions.
In essence, while China prioritizes geo-economic interests in trade, investment, and energy, the U.S. remains committed to geopolitical leadership, counterterrorism operations, and defense of its regional allies. (3)
China’s approach is fundamentally pragmatic — it avoids the burdens of U.S.-style interventionism, and it is confident that, in case of future conflicts, it can reconfigure its energy and economic relations to avoid regional fallout. (4)
Ultimately, the U.S.–China rivalry will shape the region’s political and economic landscape. As China’s influence grows, it may serve as an alternative or balancing power to the United States.
Middle Eastern states must therefore strengthen internal security and cohesion, and work toward establishing an effective regional system based on cooperation, mutual respect, and non-interference, in order to navigate future challenges efficiently. (1)
Conclusion
The U.S.–China rivalry is not a conventional power struggle but a structural contest for leadership of the 21st-century global order.
China seeks to present an alternative model to the U.S.-led liberal system, while the United States strives to preserve its dominance by rebuilding alliances and redefining global interaction rules.
This competition is expected to persist for decades, possibly intensifying in certain regions, though direct military confrontation remains unlikely due to mutual deterrence and intertwined economic interests.
Its trajectory will continue to shape global stability, offering both opportunities for cooperation and risks of escalation.
In this evolving context, regional powers — including Arab states — must pursue balanced, flexible policies that allow them to capitalize on emerging opportunities while avoiding the negative consequences of great-power competition.
The future of U.S.–China relations remains open to multiple scenarios, from strategic coexistence to direct confrontation, making the ongoing study of this rivalry essential for policymakers and researchers alike.
📚 Selected Key References (to cite in your article)
- Chaziza, M. (2024). The U.S.–China Rivalry in the Middle East: Confrontation or Competitive Coexistence. ResearchGate+1
- Winkler, S.C. (2023). Strategic Competition and U.S.–China Relations: A Conceptual Study. OUP Academic
- Mazarr, M.J., Kerrigan, A., & Lenain, B. (2025). Stabilizing the U.S.–China Rivalry. RAND Corporation. RAND Corporation
- Besch, S. & Hamzawy, A. (2024). Inside the U.S.–China Rivalry: Great Power Competition in the Middle East and North Africa. Carnegie Endowment. Carnegie Endowment
- [The trade war/tech competition article] — China Is Already Winning the Trade War America Wanted. AEI
- Africa-focus: Caught between a Rock and a Hard Place? Africa’s Position… AIB Insights
Recommended Articles & Reports
- Brookings Institution — “Rethinking US-China Competition: Next-Generation Perspectives”
A broad, updated assessment of how the U.S.–China rivalry is evolving in both economic and strategic realms. Brookings - RAND Corporation — “Stabilizing the U.S.-China Rivalry” (Oct 2025)
Focuses on mechanisms for crisis management and stability in key theaters such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and tech competition. RAND Corporation - Cato Institute — “Aimless Rivalry: The Futility of US–China Competition in the Middle East”
Challenges assumptions about the Middle East being central to the U.S.–China competition, offering a different lens. Cato Institute - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — “Reassessing U.S.–China Relations | Emerging Global Order”
Examines whether the bilateral relationship is headed toward competition, confrontation or coexistence. Carnegie Corporation of New York - Scholarly Article — “The U.S.–China Rivalry in the Middle East: Confrontation or Competitive Coexistence” by Mordechai Chaziza (2024)
Applies power-transition theory to the Middle East context of U.S.–China competition. SAGE Journals+1 - Regional Focus — “Caught between a Rock and a Hard Place? Africa’s Position in the US–China Strategic Rivalry”
Highlights how the competition plays out in Africa—useful for your references to global zones beyond the Middle East. AIB Insights - Conceptual Framework — International Relations / “Strategic Competition” — “Strategic Competition and US–China Relations: A Conceptual Approach” by SC Winkler (2023)
Clarifies definitions and frameworks that underpin how we understand the rivalry. OUP Academic
