The newly elected President Donald Trump hinted at strict policies towards China during his election campaign, pledging to impose broad tariffs on imports coming from Beijing. This has led to various estimates predicting a return of intense competition between the United States and China following Trump’s return to power. However, many questions remain regarding the characteristics of this potential escalation between the two nations in Africa and the implications of Trump’s second term for the presence of Beijing and Washington in the continent in the foreseeable future.
Diverse Considerations:
Estimates regarding the implications of Trump’s second term on US-China rivalry in Africa vary widely, which can be outlined as follows:
Trump’s Isolationist Tendencies: Some predictions suggest that Trump’s potential isolationist agenda, epitomized by the “America First” policy, could create a favorable opportunity for expansive Chinese ambitions in Africa. American policies may pave the way for Beijing to expand its footprint on the continent, especially given that Trump’s first term involved significant neglect towards Africa. This perspective anticipates that Trump’s second term will follow the same trajectory, indicating that only a few key African nations will be prioritized by the new US administration. This, in turn, could enhance China’s maneuvering space and enable it to increase its influence in Africa, potentially becoming the most significant actor on the continent.
Potential Shifts in Trump’s Approach: Another viewpoint posits that Trump’s second term may witness significant shifts in Washington’s relationship with Africa, fundamentally tied to his entrenched belief that China poses an existential threat to the United States. This belief could amplify his desire to escalate measures against Beijing in an effort to undermine its influence in various competitive arenas. In this light, these estimates suggest that Trump currently recognizes the importance of Africa as a primary theater for competition with China, especially amidst the noticeable and growing Chinese influence which has established it as a significant actor in Africa.
Economic Centrality for the New US Administration: A third perspective suggests that Trump’s second term may involve greater engagement in Africa compared to his first term, with the primary aim likely focused on economic interests that Washington could secure from the continent. This perspective relies on the centrality of the economic dimension to Trump’s policies. Given the abundance of vital minerals in African countries and their importance to competing international powers, particularly the United States and China, the new US administration is expected to attempt to enhance its presence in Africa, especially in regions rich in strategic minerals. This viewpoint may align somewhat with the previous one but diverges in the expected depth of American engagement in Africa, proposing that the new administration will expand its footprint but may focus more intensively on select countries.
Preemptive Moves:
Recently, there have been marked Chinese movements in Africa aimed at strengthening China’s influence within the continent, viewed as a primary arena for US-China competition. The characteristics of these initiatives can be outlined as follows:
Expanding Military Cooperation with Africa: Military collaboration in Africa is one of the most significant tools of fierce competition between the US and China over influence on the continent. In recent times, China has increased its military cooperation with African nations. Although China has been collaborating with African countries in various security fields for years—including joint military training, peacekeeping missions, and providing education and training for African officers—the recent announcement made by Beijing during the 9th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in September 2024 marked the clearest commitment to military involvement in Africa. This comes at a time when US military presence in the Sahel region is facing setbacks, following military coups in several countries that have led to a disassociation with Washington, most prominently Niger, where the US military had to withdraw and close its strategic airbase. General Michael Langley, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) Chief, indicated that Washington is currently restructuring its assets in Africa, referring to ongoing discussions with several West African nations, including Ghana, Benin, and Côte d’Ivoire, to compensate for its losses in Niger. This aligns with Western reports suggesting that the US is attempting to rally support as its influence wanes in the Sahel and West Africa, explaining Langley’s repeated visits to West, North, and East Africa to shift Washington’s rhetoric and improve consultations with African partners.
Transferring Smart City Technology to Africa: China has positioned the transfer of smart city technology as a key aspect of its security diplomacy in Africa, aiming to expand its role as a security partner. The technology leverages digital innovations like AI, IoT, and big data to redesign urban living, enhance security, and improve urban management. China has promoted smart city infrastructure across the continent through state-owned enterprises like Huawei, facilitating the deployment of smart urban surveillance systems currently operational in nine countries, with plans for future expansion. With over 10,000 Chinese companies operating in Africa and investments exceeding $300 billion, Beijing aims to secure resources and enhance its regional influence while cementing its technological dominance. In this context, the increasing reliance of African countries on Chinese technology raises alarms in the US and among its Western allies, particularly amid warnings about potential Chinese espionage linked to its technology initiatives in Africa.
A Fundamental Shift in China’s Diplomatic Approach: The 9th FOCAC meeting in 2024 unveiled radical changes in China’s diplomatic approach in Africa, successfully gathering delegations from 53 African countries, including 36 led by African heads of state and government, alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping’s commitments of approximately $50.7 billion in investments over the next three years. The summit underscored a new era in China-Africa relations, reaffirming the notion of a “durable China-Africa community with a shared future in the new era.” Xi emphasized that Africa is seen as an ally and partner in a troubled global system, and reaffirmed the importance of building partnerships with diverse African nations to support China’s goal of global governance reform. Through promoting long-term friendship and shared historical struggles, China aims to lay the foundation for a legitimate shared future with African countries in a new international order.
Potential Policies:
The Trump administration is unlikely to represent a true departure from the traditional US policy trajectory toward Africa, regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican occupies the White House. Africa has consistently received marginal attention in US foreign policy agendas. Based on this premise and the escalating competition with China, Trump’s potential policies regarding Africa may manifest as follows:
Differing Commitment Levels to Existing Partnerships: Some estimates raise concerns about the Trump administration possibly abandoning various bilateral and multilateral trade partnerships in Africa, including the Lobito Corridor project extending from Angola’s Atlantic coast through the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia to the Indian Ocean. Conversely, some estimates suggest that Trump’s administration could expand these trade partnerships, focusing on the economic aspect, which is central to Trump’s agenda.
Possible Deals with African Nations: Trump’s subsequent term may involve the facilitation of certain deals with African countries, aligning with previous envoy Jean-Pierre Fatt’s views on seeking mutually beneficial arrangements, potentially renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants eligible African nations tariff-free access to US markets.
Reducing Funding in Various Parts of Africa: The incoming Trump administration is expected to cut back on foreign funding provided, affecting numerous US-funded programs in Africa. This direction is supported by previous comments from the former USAID Deputy Director, Max Primorak, criticizing the 2025 Initiative designed by the Heritage Foundation, aimed at restructuring the federal government. It is noteworthy that the Trump administration previously reduced foreign funding by up to 30%. In contrast, the current Biden administration announced in December 2023 that it invested roughly $22 billion in Africa, promising further investments. However, skepticism looms regarding the incoming administration’s commitment to key American projects in Africa concerning health, security, and development.
Strong US Role in Counterterrorism: Continuing from the robust efforts maintained during Trump’s first administration towards counterterrorism in Africa, it is expected that a second term would expand focus on targeting terrorist groups in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, along with increased military support for counterterrorism initiatives, favoring allied countries in West Africa like Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire, along with some Horn of Africa nations, particularly Kenya.
In conclusion, the new Trump administration appears poised to confront tensions between its isolationist inclinations, largely underscored by the “America First” slogan, and its strong desire to counter rising Chinese influence globally, including in Africa, which holds strategic importance likely to render it a primary arena for fierce competition between Washington and Beijing.
