The Attempted Assassination of Trump: The Impact of Polarization and Political Violence on the American Scene
Amidst the intense preparations for a heated presidential race in the United States, which is grappling with numerous intertwined and complex problems, former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump was involved in a shooting incident during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 14. The FBI described the incident as an “assassination attempt,” revealing the identity of the perpetrator as “Thomas Matthew Crooks.” The authorities also stated that the suspect is a 20-year-old Republican who had previously made a small financial contribution to a group allied with the Democrats, according to CNN. This incident raises questions about the underlying causes and its implications for the American political landscape, especially as the country prepares for the presidential elections in November.
Interconnected Causes:
Less than three weeks after the first debate in the American presidential race between the oldest president in U.S. history, Joe Biden, and his Republican rival, Donald Trump—who is facing a long list of charges—an important development occurred that might have clear implications for the political scene. This development was the targeting of the Republican candidate Trump during an election rally in Pennsylvania. Regardless of the conspiracy theories being circulated by some individuals in both Republican and Democratic camps, and despite the ongoing ambiguity surrounding the motives behind the incident, these can be analyzed in light of several crises plaguing the American political scene:
Political Polarization and Division:
The American scene is clearly suffering from increasing polarization and political division, particularly since Trump took office during his first term. This division widened with the increasing pace of the COVID-19 pandemic, which highlighted racial disparities between white communities on one side and black and colored communities on the other. The situation was further exacerbated by the killing of George Floyd and the subsequent protests, culminating in the storming of Capitol Hill in January 2021 and the adoption of a policy of rejecting the election results by Trump and some of his supporters.
Commenting on this, Todd Washburn, former assistant dean for external affairs at Harvard University, in his analysis titled “Polarization and the Political Elite,” pointed out that Americans today are much more inclined to “assert their ideological and political identities.” He noted that in 2020, 40% of Americans strongly identified themselves as either liberal or conservative, compared to 29% in 2000. Similarly, 44% identified themselves as strong Democrats or Republicans in 2020—the highest percentage recorded in 70 years.
Regarding the shooting incident involving Trump, it cannot be seen solely as a natural result of the political division in America. However, the reactions to it have reflected the wide scope of polarization, which was evident in the social media responses. According to Bloomberg, some posts claimed that President Biden incited the shooting at the rally, while others suggested the incident was staged. Posts on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram claimed that the shooter was named “Mark Violets” and described him as an “Antifa leftist extremist.” These claims were not confined to social media users but also extended to some members of the American elite. For instance, Republican Congressman Mike Collins commented on the incident by saying, “Joe Biden sent the orders,” while Senator J.D. Vance stated on X that “Biden’s campaign rhetoric directly led to the attempted assassination of President Trump.”
The Widening Scope of Violence:
The targeting of Trump occurred at a time when the United States is witnessing high rates of violence in various forms, especially over the past decade, partly due to the polarizing or inciting influence of the elite. Data from the Gun Violence Archive revealed an average of 118 deaths per day due to gun violence in 2023. Additionally, the number of mass shootings reached 689 in 2021, 647 in 2022, and 656 in 2023. A poll conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Brookings Institution in October last year found that one in four Americans agreed that “true patriots may have to resort to violence to save our country.”
In this context, Rachel Kleinfeld, in her study on polarization and violence in the United States, considered the increasing violence a clear outcome of the polarization among the American elite, arguing that the “normalization of violence by political leaders” may create a sense that violent behavior is “permissible,” may go unpunished, and could even turn the perpetrator into a “hero.” She emphasized that the continuation of this approach by the political elite has “significantly raised the stakes,” as violent threats are no longer confined to members of the political elite but have also extended to judges and hate crimes, which have reached record levels, along with a marked increase in mass shootings.
Most analyses consider the increasing violence in the United States to be rooted in several factors, foremost among them the constitutional right to bear arms, which grants American citizens the right to own weapons—a right that the Supreme Court has upheld on several occasions, thereby contributing to the widespread culture of gun ownership and use among a large segment of the American population. Moreover, social media has played a significant role in promoting violence through two main pillars: the spread of inciting rhetoric and the reinforcement of the contagion of violence.
The Crisis of American Youth:
The information revealed by the FBI shows that the perpetrator of the incident is 20 years old, making him a young man within Generation Z, which faces clear challenges in the United States. Berkeley News, in an interview with Sarah Swanbeck and Erin Hayes from the University of California, Berkeley Institute, highlighted that American youth widely feel “disillusioned” with the political and economic system. It added that some sectors of youth feel that “the American dream is dead,” or has become very difficult to achieve, or “can only be achieved by some.” Additionally, it pointed out that young people have become significantly concerned because the political system is under the influence of “special interests and dark money.” Consequently, the report noted that some youth “no longer belong to any party” because they do not believe that the parties do anything that “positively affects their lives.”
In connection with this, The Wall Street Journal stated that a sense of “gloom” pervades Generation Z as a result of the great skepticism about the ability of the American elite from both parties to help this generation. It added that most of the political memories of American youth are dominated by negativity, ranging from “extreme partisanship and warnings of the imminent end of everything from American democracy to the planet.” A poll conducted by the Journal last month showed that more than three-quarters of voters under 30 believe the country is “moving in the wrong direction,” and nearly a third of voters under 30 have a negative view of both Biden and Trump. Additionally, 63% of young voters believe that neither party adequately represents them.
In the same context, an analysis by the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in mid-2023, indicated that for those aged 20 to 24, the homicide rate increased by about 49% between 2014 and 2020, and the suicide rate for this age group rose by 63% during the two decades of the study.
Complex Implications:
As the United States prepares for what appears to be a clearly “exceptional” presidential election, the targeting of Republican presidential candidate Trump just months before the election is expected to have implications for the already tense American political scene. Below is an attempt to deconstruct the main expected consequences of the Pennsylvania incident:
Tarnishing the Democrats’ Image:
President Biden and the Democratic administration quickly condemned the incident. As reported on the White House website, Biden condemned the attack and called for the “rejection of political violence,” adding that he is praying for Trump, his family, and those who were at the rally. Reuters reported that Biden made a phone call to Trump and also spoke with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Butler Mayor Bob Dandoy. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin condemned the incident, stressing that “this is not how differences are resolved in America, nor should it be.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken also condemned the incident, stating that he was “shocked and saddened.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, in a statement, asserted that “there is no place for political violence in our country.”
However, the incident is expected to contribute to tarnishing the image of the Democrats, not only due to the comments made by some Republicans regarding the Democrats’ responsibility for the incident, such as Mike Collins and J.D. Vance, especially with the security information revealing a “potential alliance” between the perpetrator and some Democratic groups but also in light of the perception that this is just another episode in the Democrats’ attempts to eliminate Trump. These attempts began with two impeachment trials—one while he was still in office and the other after Biden’s victory—and continue with the ongoing judicial process, which is being portrayed as a form of “political elimination” of Trump.
Boosting Trump’s Chances of Victory:
The targeting of Trump at a campaign rally is likely to strengthen his claims of a conspiracy against him aimed at removing him from the political scene. This narrative will bolster his ability to mobilize his supporters as a political threat against his opponents, a strategy he has employed on several occasions, most notably during the January 2021 Capitol Hill riot. He has also repeated this strategy in opposing the judicial process stemming from a long list of charges. This suggests that the Pennsylvania incident fits into Trump’s broader strategy of using the obstacles and challenges he faces to enhance his popularity by portraying himself as a victim of a conspiracy simply because he genuinely represents “the voice of the American people.”
In this context, the incident is likely to be used to bolster Trump’s chances of winning the current presidential race, particularly through populist, and perhaps inciting rhetoric, that appeals to national pride in the face of the “conspiracy against America.” This narrative has already begun to emerge, as evidenced by a statement
made by Trump’s campaign team to the New York Times, stating, “America’s enemies are coming after Trump because they know he is America’s last hope to save our country from decline, and this attack is an attack on America itself.”
Implications for the Political Scene:
The assassination attempt on Trump could raise fears that the United States might be on the brink of a “dangerous wave” of violence, especially in light of the political division, the involvement of youth in acts of violence, and the return of a sense of division in the American street. This suggests that the country is not far from a return to an environment similar to the 1960s when the United States witnessed waves of assassinations targeting its political elite. These fears were expressed by Washington Post editor Paul Waldman, who pointed out that the Pennsylvania incident might be followed by other attacks and attempted assassinations. The Guardian also highlighted similar concerns, noting that the attempted assassination of Trump serves as a reminder that “political violence is rising” in the United States.
In summary, the attempted assassination of Trump cannot be separated from the underlying problems in American political life. These include increasing polarization and political division, the normalization of political violence, the proliferation of firearms, and the prevailing sense of frustration among young people. As the election season heats up, all of these factors could lead to further complications, making it necessary for American society to find a way to address these deep-seated issues if it hopes to avoid a cycle of violence and unrest in the near future.
